-
Sotheby’s
Fine Books & Manuscripts
June 24-25Sotheby’s, June 25: Keats, John. The most significant collection of Keats’s love letters to come to market since 1885. $1,500,000 to $2,500,000.Sotheby’s, June 25: Chassériau, Benoît. The “Expedicion secreta” of the Free State of Cartagena de Indias against the forts of Portobelo (Panama). $50,000 to $70,000.Sotheby’s, June 25: (Hamilton, Alexander, James Madison, and John Jay). "One of the new nation's most important contributions to the theory of government”. $150,000 to $180,000.Sotheby’s, June 24: Benjamin Franklin. "the Day of the Declaration of Independence is everywhere annually celebrated". $80,000 to $120,000.Sotheby’s, June 24: (Johann Conrad Beissel). A Sammelband of two of Benjamin Franklin's rarest imprints. $70,000 to $100,000.Sotheby’s, June 25: [Pernambuco]. First printed work in favor of Brazilian Independence. $150,000 to $200,000. -
June 23rd, 24th & 25th 2026 Fonsie Mealy’s, June 23-25: Medical Incunabula: Petit (Jean)publisher & Kerver (Thielman)printer. Regimen Sanitatis Salernitanum, sm. 8vo, Paris [1498]Fonsie Mealy’s, June 23-25: Hugo (Victor) [Wraxall (Lascelles)]. Les Miserable, 3 vols., 8vo, L. (Hurst & Blackett) 1862, First Authorized English Translation (copyright).Fonsie Mealy’s, June 23-25: Shelley (Mary Wollstonecraft). Frankenstein: or The Modern Prometheus, 8vo, 2 vols. in one, L. (G. & W.B. Whittaker, Ave-Maria-Lane) 1823.June 23rd, 24th & 25th 2026 Fonsie Mealy’s, June 23-25: Cuisine: Anon. Cookery, Pastry, and Sweet Meats in three Books, Alphabetically Digested, 8vo 1710.Fonsie Mealy’s, June 23-25: Lambert (Aylmer Bourke). A Description of the Genus Pinus, with Directions Relative to the Cultivation…, 2 vols. Sm. folio L. (Messrs. Weddell) 1832.Fonsie Mealy’s, June 23-25: Botany: Curtis (William). Flora Londinensis: or Plates and Descriptions of such Plants as Grow Wild in the Environs of London, 2 vols. folio, London (B. White) 1777 – 1798.June 23rd, 24th & 25th 2026 Fonsie Mealy’s, June 23-25: Le Moire (J.M.) Maple Leaves, Canadian History and Quebec Scenery (Third Series) 8vo Quebec (Hunter, Rose & Co.) 1865. First Edn.Fonsie Mealy’s, June 23-25: The Earliest Extant Printed House Contents Sale Catalogue in Ireland: Baillie, Auctioneer, Abby Street. A Catalogue of the Goods and Stock of the late Edward Wingfield…Fonsie Mealy’s, June 23-25: William III King of England. Autograph Letter Signed ("William R") to an unnamed correspondent [possibly Charles-Henri de Lorraine] discussing his strategy against the French forces during the siege of Namur.June 23rd, 24th & 25th 2026 Fonsie Mealy’s, June 23-25: [Austen (Jane) (1785-1817]. Pride and Prejudice, 3 vols. sm. 8vo, L. (T. Egerton) 1813.Fonsie Mealy’s, June 23-25: Heaney (Seamus). Ugolino, sm. folio D. (Dolmen) 1979, Limited Edn. No. 78/125 Copies, Signed by Seamus Heaney, Louis le Brocquy, Liam Miller and Andrew Carpenter.Fonsie Mealy’s, June 23-25: Voltaire (F.M. Avouet de). Petits Ouvrages, attribues a M. de Voltaire, sm. folio manuscript, dated 1776, containing 9 works. -
Bonhams, June 14-23: Franklin D. Roosevelt Presentation Gold Pocket Watch. Estimate: $20,000 - 30,000Bonhams, June 14-23: Presentation Copy of the First Issue of the Lincoln Douglas Debates Signed by Abraham Lincoln in Pencil to a Sangamon County Illinois Republican. Estimate: $150,000 - 250,000Bonhams, June 14-23: A Senate Resolution Signed in the Tense Days After the Union's Humiliating Defeat at the First Battle of Bull Run. Estimate: $80,000 - $120,000Bonhams, June 14-23: Seven Passages to a Flight, an Artists Book with a Story Quilt by Faith Ringgold, the Publisher's Own Copy. Estimate: $80,000 - 120,000Bonhams, June 14-23: A New Charter for Virginia, A Response to the First Armed Rebellion in the American Colonies. Estimate: $15,000 - 25,000Bonhams, June 14-23: Earliest obtainable printing of the Bill of Rights. Estimate: $8,000 - 12,000Bonhams, June 14-23: Edward Curtis Orotone. Estimate: $7,000 - 9,000Bonhams, June 14-23: Owned by Jacqueline Kennedy Onassis: A Butter or Dessert Plate from FDR's State Dinner Service. Estimate: $3,000 - 5,000Bonhams, June 14-23: An Early Large-Format Plan of the City of Washington. Estimate: $1,500 - 2,500Bonhams, June 14-23: Containing the First Map to Name the Hudson River. Estimate: $20,000 - 30,000Bonhams, June 14-23: America's First Major Novelist, a Complete Chapter in Autograph Manuscript by James Fenimore Cooper. Estimate: $15,000 - 20,000Bonhams, June 14-23: The Only Full-Length Book by Jefferson, with the Justly Famous Map. Estimate: $12,000 - 18,000 -
June 25, 2026 Doyle, June 25: Houdini's biography, boldly signed. $3,000 to $5,000.Doyle, June 25: A volume from Abraham Lincoln's library, signed just before heading to Washington for his inauguration. $20,000 to $30,000.Doyle, June 25: A very early Confederate recruiting manual belonging to the chief commissary in Lee's Army. $600 to $800.Doyle, June 25: Rare hand-colored lithographs of the life of Napoleon. $20,000 to $30,000.Doyle, June 25: The "Holster Atlas" of the American Revolution. $5,000 to $8,000.Doyle, June 25: Jewish ceremonies in fine hand-colored engravings. $7,000 to $10,000.Doyle, June 25: A very rare work on Turkish military costume. $1,000 to $1,500.June 25, 2026 Doyle, June 25: The most important illustrated work on the Mexican-American War. $10,000 to $15,000.Doyle, June 25: The finest illustrated book on Afghanistan. $10,000 to $15,000.Doyle, June 25: Henry Justice Ford St. George rescues the Princess from the horrible Dragon. $2,000 to $3,000.Doyle, June 25: A rare work of Prussian Army uniforms under Frederick William II, with exquisite hand-colored engravings. $800 to $1,200.Doyle, June 25: Lenny Bruce typed letter signed to a Village bohemian during his obscenity trials, with a manuscript note and drawing. $300 to $500.Doyle, June 25: Schiff's scarce Shanghai Sketchbook. $300 to $500.Doyle, June 25: The first accurate published representation of the American flag. $2,000 to $4,000.
Rare Book Monthly
For Printed Materials: The Probability of Appearance
Joel Munsell: the fastidious bibliographer
By Bruce McKinney
It is becoming possible to estimate the print runs of perhaps 150,000 antiquarian items, whose printing histories were never recorded, based on formulas that compare detailed printing records provided by Joel Munsell to the number of copies found in the OCLC, appearances at auction and sightings on listing sites and eBay. The goal is a new statistical measure that projects "probability of appearance" for books and ephemera. The internet has made it possible for millions of items to be offered but what is the likelihood what you are looking for will show up? I think we can know.
Munsell's material, published over a fifty year period in the 19th century, covered an extensive range of subjects and was printed in formats that range from 8-page pamphlets to 400-page books. He documented his printing history and it comes down to us today as a basis for comparison to copies in institutional, auction and listing venues. He published a directory of 2,268 printings and documented a thousand items, published between 1834 and 1870, with bibliographic details and the quantities printed.
For book dealers, collectors, auction houses and libraries such information may in time become part of a printing's essential facts. The initial print run is but one factor in calculating "probability of appearance" but it is an essential one that combined with appearances in various databases, historical data and bibliographic details may make it possible to construct an index with implications for all collectible printed materials.
The theory is simple algebra and the objective to solve for the unknown. Munsell provides half the variables and modern databases and listing sites the other. In Munsell's case, with both sides known, we should be able to establish the range of variation with some precision and apply this range broadly to material that lacks the quantity printed but is otherwise bibliographically complete.
For this we owe a debt to Joel Munsell, the Albany, New York printer, who maintained extensive records of the various books and pamphlets he printed during his career. In Bibliotheca Munselliana: A Catalogue of the Books and Pamphlets issued from the Press of Joel Munsell from the year 1828 to 1870, he detailed 2,268 book and pamphlet printing jobs including the quantity printed for about 1,000 of them. Using the information he provides it's possible to compare his quantities with their appearances in library inventories, at auction and on listing sites. With these numbers we can estimate survival statistics and in time "probabilities of appearance."
In this article I examine Munsell's production for the period 1834 through 1840 for which he identifies 104 items. I then focus on 64, all books and pamphlets, for which he provides the quantities printed and compare these quantities to the number of copies found in the OCLC today. Let's take a look.
Rare Book Monthly
-
Bonhams, June 14-23: Palm-reading, astrology, and more. Estimate: $2,000 - 3,000Bonhams, June 14-23: Benjamin Franklin. Sammelband of 45 papers on electricity. Estimate: $8,000 - 12,000Bonhams, June 14-23: The basis for the whole modern electric-power industry. Estimate: $4,000 - 6,000Bonhams, June 14-23: Edgar Allen Poe. Poe on Mesmerism. Estimate: $2,500 - 3,500Bonhams, June 14-23: Reformation - The Architect of Lutheranism on Church Unity and Dissent. Estimate: $100,000 - 150,000Bonhams, June 14-23: The Rare 3-Paper Offprint Identifying the Double Helix Structure of DNA, Signed by Crick, Wilkins, Wilson, Stokes and Gosling. Estimate: $40,000 - 60,000Bonhams, June 14-23: Autograph book and Report from the Thirtieth Indian National Congress, featuring the signatures of Mahatma Gandhi, Rabindranath Tagore, and Dadabhai Naoroji. Estimate: $6,000 - 8,000Bonhams, June 14-23: An Illustrated Miniature Hebrew Prayerbook Manuscript. Estimate: $30,000 - 50,000Bonhams, June 14-23: Autograph Working Draft of Arthur Conan Doyle's The Death Voyage. Estimate: $30,000 - 50,000Bonhams, June 14-23: "Perhaps the most celebrated and most beautiful herbal ever published." Estimate: $15,000 - 20,000Bonhams, June 14-23: Izaak Walton. The Compleat Angler or the Contemplative man's Recreation. Being a Discourse of Fish and Fishing. Estimate: $12,000 - 18,000Bonhams, June 14-23: A rare product of the Jaquard loom. Estimate: $8,000 - 12,000 -
Freeman’s, June 30. Thomas Jefferson’s “Birth of the New Nation” letter, carried to Paris with the Treaty of Peace, by a Jewish patriot. $100,000-200,000.Freeman’s, June 30. “The rockets’ red glare.” A British midshipman’s log recording the bombardment of Fort McHenry. $60,000-80,000.Freeman’s, June 30. The Critical Promotion of a Naval Hero, Oliver Hazard Perry Commission signed by James Madison, 1812. $40,000-60,000.Freeman’s, June 30. Born in the USA: First Day of Printing in the United States, July 4, 1776. $15,000-25,000.Freeman’s, June 30. One of the Earliest Printed Announcements of American Independence, in the Exceedingly Rare Original Wrappers, 1776. $10,000-15,000.Freeman’s, June 30. "The Two Big Guns of the N.Y. Yanks": A Striking Type 1 Press Photograph of Lou Gehrig's Hands. $8,000-12,000.Freeman’s, June 30. A Unique Contemporary Manuscript Account of Joseph Smith's Final Words to His Followers, the Day Before his Violent Death. $8,000-12,000.Freeman’s, June 30. The State of Minnesota Officially Certifies the Fourteenth Amendment to the Constitution Of the United States. $8,000-12,000.Freeman’s, June 30. Extraordinarily Large Manuscript Petition Signed by a Who's Who of Colonial New York to Queen Anne from the Colony of New York. $8,000-12,000.Freeman’s, June 30. Mickey Mantle's First Cover: The Earliest Front-Page Newspaper Image of Mickey Mantle, "Something Good from Joplin". $8,000-12,000.Freeman’s, June 30. A Call to Arms in the Months Following the Declaration of Independence: An Early Continental Army Recruitment Poster. $6,000-9,000.Freeman’s, June 30. Samuel Jones, the Statesman Behind the Newly Discovered "Jones Declaration": His Annotated Set Used in His Working Law Library. $6,000-9,000.