For Printed Materials: The Probability of Appearance
- by Bruce E. McKinney
Bad news was good business.
Now let's look for these items on the listing sites. I primarily used ABE but also searched via AddAll. For the 64 items in this study I found 3 examples, two of them for the same item and AddAll found no examples that weren't also on Abe. For the other 62 printings I did not find even one copy. This suggests the ratio of appearances between the OCLC and listings sites is 324:3 but that is not true because the OCLC is a fixed database while the listing sites are variable. Said another way when an item is posted to the OCLC it is probably there for life while when it is posted to a listing site it is there only until it sells. In the past 18 months I have purchased 14 examples of 10 of the 64 items which I found on listing sites and eBay.
By the end of the year I expect to complete an analysis by decade. I'm particularly interested to see how time affects the number of appearances. Content is another factor and becomes important as Munsell's career advances and his judgment about content, marketing and presentation improve. For the 1840s, 1850s and 1860s we have 900 more records and in the fullness of time we will both better understand Munsell's production and I hope, by extrapolation, develop formulas by which to predict frequency of appearance and its inverse: rarity.
For the final decade of Munsell's career, the 1870s, we have only his printed output as Munselliana effectively ends in 1870. For his final decade I expect to propose a theory to predict printed quantity where none has been provided and from there it is a short step to predict probability of appearance for virtually all old material. If I can do this I know Joel will be very pleased. In his own life he never quite reached the stars. Perhaps one hundred and twenty-six years after he died he'll take this final step.
To examine a complete list of all materical used in this study Click here.
If there are others who are interested to participate in this project I would appreciate hearing from you. In time the Munsell study must be simply one source of perspective. It will take a meta-study of other documented printers to confirm or amend the projection theory as it emerges from this first study.
The analysis is engrossing and I believe the application to older material of all types a distinct if yet today unproven possibility.
Sotheby’s, Dec. 11: Darwin and Wallace. On the Tendency of Species to form Varieties..., [in:] Journal of the Proceedings of the Linnean Society, Vol. III, No. 9., 1858, Darwin announces the theory of natural selection. £100,000 to £150,000.
Sotheby’s, Dec. 11: J.K. Rowling. Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone, 1997, first edition, hardback issue, inscribed by the author pre-publication. £100,000 to £150,000.
Sotheby’s, Dec. 11: Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart. Autograph sketchleaf including a probable draft for the E flat Piano Quartet, K.493, 1786. £150,000 to £200,000.
Sotheby’s, Dec. 12: Hooke, Robert. Micrographia: or some Physiological Descriptions of Minute Bodies made by Magnifying Glasses. London: James Allestry for the Royal Society, 1667. $12,000 to $15,000.
Sotheby’s, Dec. 12: Chappuzeau, Samuel. The history of jewels, first edition in English. London: T.N. for Hobart Kemp, 1671. $12,000 to $18,000.
Sotheby’s, Dec. 12: Sowerby, James. Exotic Mineralogy, containing his most realistic mineral depictions, London: Benjamin Meredith, 1811, Arding and Merrett, 1817. $5,000 to $7,000.
Rare Book Hub is now mobile-friendly!
Swann Maps & Atlases, Natural History & Color Plate Books December 9, 2025
Swann, Dec. 9: Lot 156: Cornelis de Jode, Americae pars Borealis, double-page engraved map of North America, Antwerp, 1593.
Swann, Dec. 9: Lot 206: John and Alexander Walker, Map of the United States, London and Liverpool, 1827.
Swann, Dec. 9: Lot 223: Abraham Ortelius, Typus Orbis Terrarum, hand-colored double-page engraved world map, Antwerp, 1575.
Swann Maps & Atlases, Natural History & Color Plate Books December 9, 2025
Swann, Dec. 9: Lot 233: Aaron Arrowsmith, Chart of the World, oversize engraved map on 8 sheets, London, 1790 (circa 1800).
Swann, Dec. 9: Lot 239: Fielding Lucas, A General Atlas, 81 engraved maps and diagrams, Baltimore, 1823.
Swann, Dec. 9: Lot 240: Anthony Finley, A New American Atlas, 15 maps engraved by james hamilton young on 14 double-page sheets, Philadelphia, 1826.
Swann Maps & Atlases, Natural History & Color Plate Books December 9, 2025
Swann, Dec. 9: Lot 263: John Bachmann, Panorama of the Seat of War, portfolio of 4 double-page chromolithographed panoramic maps, New York, 1861.
Swann, Dec. 9: Lot 265: Sebastian Münster, Cosmographei, Basel: Sebastian Henricpetri, 1558.
Swann, Dec. 9: Lot 271: Abraham Ortelius, Epitome Theatri Orteliani, Antwerp: Johann Baptist Vrients, 1601.
Swann Maps & Atlases, Natural History & Color Plate Books December 9, 2025
Swann, Dec. 9: Lot 283: Joris van Spilbergen, Speculum Orientalis Occidentalisque Indiae, Leiden: Nicolaus van Geelkercken for Jodocus Hondius, 1619.
Swann, Dec. 9: Lot 285: Levinus Hulsius, Achtzehender Theil der Newen Welt, 14 engraved folding maps, Frankfurt: Johann Frederick Weiss, 1623.
Swann, Dec. 9: Lot 341: John James Audubon, Carolina Parrot, Plate 26, London, 1827.
![<b>Sotheby’s, Dec. 11:</b> Darwin and Wallace. On the Tendency of Species to form Varieties..., [in:] <i>Journal of the Proceedings of the Linnean Society,</i> Vol. III, No. 9., 1858, Darwin announces the theory of natural selection. £100,000 to £150,000.](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/00d5fd41-2542-4a80-b119-4886d4b9925f.png "<b>Sotheby’s, Dec. 11:</b> Darwin and Wallace. On the Tendency of Species to form Varieties..., [in:] <i>Journal of the Proceedings of the Linnean Society,</i> Vol. III, No. 9., 1858, Darwin announces the theory of natural selection. £100,000 to £150,000.")
