For Printed Materials: The Probability of Appearance
- by Bruce E. McKinney
Joel Munsell: the fastidious bibliographer
By Bruce McKinney
It is becoming possible to estimate the print runs of perhaps 150,000 antiquarian items, whose printing histories were never recorded, based on formulas that compare detailed printing records provided by Joel Munsell to the number of copies found in the OCLC, appearances at auction and sightings on listing sites and eBay. The goal is a new statistical measure that projects "probability of appearance" for books and ephemera. The internet has made it possible for millions of items to be offered but what is the likelihood what you are looking for will show up? I think we can know.
Munsell's material, published over a fifty year period in the 19th century, covered an extensive range of subjects and was printed in formats that range from 8-page pamphlets to 400-page books. He documented his printing history and it comes down to us today as a basis for comparison to copies in institutional, auction and listing venues. He published a directory of 2,268 printings and documented a thousand items, published between 1834 and 1870, with bibliographic details and the quantities printed.
For book dealers, collectors, auction houses and libraries such information may in time become part of a printing's essential facts. The initial print run is but one factor in calculating "probability of appearance" but it is an essential one that combined with appearances in various databases, historical data and bibliographic details may make it possible to construct an index with implications for all collectible printed materials.
The theory is simple algebra and the objective to solve for the unknown. Munsell provides half the variables and modern databases and listing sites the other. In Munsell's case, with both sides known, we should be able to establish the range of variation with some precision and apply this range broadly to material that lacks the quantity printed but is otherwise bibliographically complete.
For this we owe a debt to Joel Munsell, the Albany, New York printer, who maintained extensive records of the various books and pamphlets he printed during his career. In Bibliotheca Munselliana: A Catalogue of the Books and Pamphlets issued from the Press of Joel Munsell from the year 1828 to 1870, he detailed 2,268 book and pamphlet printing jobs including the quantity printed for about 1,000 of them. Using the information he provides it's possible to compare his quantities with their appearances in library inventories, at auction and on listing sites. With these numbers we can estimate survival statistics and in time "probabilities of appearance."
In this article I examine Munsell's production for the period 1834 through 1840 for which he identifies 104 items. I then focus on 64, all books and pamphlets, for which he provides the quantities printed and compare these quantities to the number of copies found in the OCLC today. Let's take a look.
Koller Auctions Books & Autographs 18 September 2024
Koller, Sep. 18: Cowper, William. Anatomia corporum humanorum ab excellentissimis… Utrecht, 1750. CHF 25,000 to 40,000
Koller, Sep. 18: Bell, Thomas. A Monograph of the Testudinata. London [1836-1842]. CHF 20,000 to 30,000.
Koller, Sep. 18: Gould, John. A monograph of the Trochilidae, or family of humming-birds [and] Supplement completed after the authors death…, London [1849-]1861 and [1880-]1887. CHF 50,000 to 80,000.
Koller Auctions Books & Autographs 18 September 2024
Koller, Sep. 18: Gould, John. The birds of New Guinea and the adjacent Papuan Islands, including many new species recently discovered in Australia. CHF 50,000 to 80,000.
Koller, Sep. 18: Levaillant, François. Histoire naturelle des oiseaux de paradis et des rolliers, suivie de celle des toucans et des barbus. Paris [1801-]1806. CHF 40,000 to 60,000.
Koller, Sep. 18: Pfinzing, Melchior. Die geverlicheiten und einsteils der geschichten des loblichen streytparen…, Nürnberg, 1517. CHF 40,000 to 60,000.
Il Ponte, Sep. 24-25: HAMILTON, Sir William - Campi Phlegraei. Napoli: 1779. € 50,000 - 80,000
Il Ponte, Sep. 24-25: KIRCHER, Athanasius - Turris Babel. Amsterdam: 1679. € 3,000 - 5,000
Il Ponte, Sep. 24-25: EDWARDS, George.London - Gleanings of Natural History. Londra: 1758-1764. € 7,000 - 10,000
Il Ponte, Sep. 24-25: HEVELIUS, Johannes - Cometographia. Danzica: 1668. € 20,000 - 30,000
Il Ponte, Sep. 24-25: KUPKA, Frantisek - Quatre histoires de blanc et noir. Parigi: 1926. € 10,000 - 15,000
Old World Auctions (Sept 11): Lot 732. Early Announcement of Continental Congress' Declaration of Independence (1776) Est. $12,000 - $15,000
Old World Auctions (Sept 11): Lot 361. One of Ortelius' Most Decorative Maps in Full Contemporary Color (1585) Est. $9,500 - $12,000
Old World Auctions (Sept 11): Lot 55. Early Edition of One of the Most Important 16th Century Maps of the New World (1545) Est. $6,000 - $7,500
Old World Auctions (Sept 11): Lot 27. Fascinating Japanese Satirical Map of the World Published After WWI (1924) Est. $2,750 - $3,500
Old World Auctions (Sept 11): Lot 637. Complete Example of De Bry's Petits Voyages, Part VIII (1606) Est. $4,750 - $5,500
Old World Auctions (Sept 11): Lot 50. Extremely Rare Uncut Sheet from Sylvanus's 1511 Edition of Ptolemy's Geographia (1511) Est. $2,000 - $2,300
Old World Auctions (Sept 11): Lot 399. One of the Most Desired Maps of Ireland by John Speed (1610) Est. $2,750 - $3,500
Old World Auctions (Sept 11): Lot 689. Pictorial Map of Melbourne in the Style of MacDonald Gill (1934) Est. $900 - $1,100
Old World Auctions (Sept 11): Lot 652. Blaeu's Carte-a-Figures Map of Africa in Full Contemporary Color (1663) Est. $3,000 - $3,750
Old World Auctions (Sept 11): Lot 729. Hand-Colored Image of David Handing the Letter to Uriah (1518) Est. $1,000 - $1,300
Old World Auctions (Sept 11): Lot 533. Eight-Volume Set Recounting Travels of Anacharsis in Greece (1789) Est. $800 - $950
Dominic Winter Auctioneers September 11 Printed Books, Maps & Manuscripts, The Polydore Vergil bound for Queen Mary I
Dominic Winter, Sep. 11: Exquemelin (Alexandre Olivier). The History of the Bucaniers of America..., 4 parts in one, 3rd edition, 1704. £1,000-1,500
Dominic Winter, Sep. 11: Greenough (George Bellos). A Physical and Geological Map of England & Wales..., Geological Society, July 1865. £5,000-8,000
Dominic Winter, Sep. 11: Illuminated Psalter. Manuscript Psalter with Calendar, Flanders or North-East France, late 13th century. £7,000-10,000
Dominic Winter Auctioneers September 11 Printed Books, Maps & Manuscripts, The Polydore Vergil bound for Queen Mary I
Dominic Winter, Sep. 11: Book of Hours. Illuminated manuscript on vellum, Use of Rome, in Latin, Florence, c. 1470s. £3,000-5,000
Dominic Winter, Sep. 11: Henry VIII (King of England). Assertio septem sacramentorum adversus Martinum Lutherum, Antwerp: Michiel Hillen, 1522. £3,000-5,000
Dominic Winter, Sep. 11: Binding for Queen Mary I of England and Ireland. Polydori Vergilii Urbinatis Anglicae..., 1555. £20,000-30,000
Dominic Winter Auctioneers September 11 Printed Books, Maps & Manuscripts, The Polydore Vergil bound for Queen Mary I
Dominic Winter, Sep. 11: Llwyd (Humphrey). The Breviary of Britayne..., 1st edition in English, 1573. William Lambarde's copy. £2,000-3,000
Dominic Winter, Sep. 11: Embroidered Binding. The Whole Book of Psalmes..., Imprinted for the Company of Stationers, 1634. £700-1,000
Dominic Winter, Sep. 11: Astronomy Manuscript. [Shakerley, Jeremy (1626-c.1655). Tabulae Britannicae, the British tables…], late 17th c. £1,000-1,500
Dominic Winter Auctioneers September 11 Printed Books, Maps & Manuscripts, The Polydore Vergil bound for Queen Mary I
![<b>Koller, Sep. 18:</b> Bell, Thomas. A Monograph of the Testudinata. London [1836-1842]. CHF 20,000 to 30,000.](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/29dc9a36-584c-476d-bc08-834bc3d3902d.png "<b>Koller, Sep. 18:</b> Bell, Thomas. A Monograph of the Testudinata. London [1836-1842]. CHF 20,000 to 30,000.")
![<b>Koller, Sep. 18:</b> Gould, John. A monograph of the Trochilidae, or family of humming-birds [and] Supplement completed after the authors death…, London [1849-]1861 and [1880-]1887. CHF 50,000 to 80,000.](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/d1c7f9bc-1bd9-43a2-9cd9-fa2e0a89d50f.png "<b>Koller, Sep. 18:</b> Gould, John. A monograph of the Trochilidae, or family of humming-birds [and] Supplement completed after the authors death…, London [1849-]1861 and [1880-]1887. CHF 50,000 to 80,000.")
![<b>Koller, Sep. 18:</b> Levaillant, François. Histoire naturelle des oiseaux de paradis et des rolliers, suivie de celle des toucans et des barbus. Paris [1801-]1806. CHF 40,000 to 60,000.](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/dcac6725-5a79-4a9a-8172-9a5e10ccb75b.png "<b>Koller, Sep. 18:</b> Levaillant, François. Histoire naturelle des oiseaux de paradis et des rolliers, suivie de celle des toucans et des barbus. Paris [1801-]1806. CHF 40,000 to 60,000.")
![<b>Dominic Winter, Sep. 11:</b> Astronomy Manuscript. [Shakerley, Jeremy (1626-c.1655). Tabulae Britannicae, the British tables…], late 17th c. £1,000-1,500](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/380fa981-a81a-4cee-8a47-9deac6721ee2.jpg "<b>Dominic Winter, Sep. 11:</b> Astronomy Manuscript. [Shakerley, Jeremy (1626-c.1655). Tabulae Britannicae, the British tables…], late 17th c. £1,000-1,500")
![<b>Dominic Winter, Sep. 11:</b> Vellucent Art Nouveau Binding [Book of Common Prayer] by Herbert Granville Fell, 1900. £1,000-1,500](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/1e4d8ff8-e737-4e16-8a64-bc917748b937.jpg "<b>Dominic Winter, Sep. 11:</b> Vellucent Art Nouveau Binding [Book of Common Prayer] by Herbert Granville Fell, 1900. £1,000-1,500")
