Taking an Auction Apart, Putting a Market Back Together
- by Bruce E. McKinney
On AE we maintain current value indexes and update them each January based on the roughly 200,000 auctions lots we cover each year world-wide. From these indices we know that, generally, material purchased between 1991 and 1995 achieved a 106% return in the auction rooms in 2008; for material purchased between 1996 to 1998 a 44% increase, and a 6% advance for material purchased between 1999 and 2002. We also know that subsequent to the purchase of the last books for the de Orbe Novo Collection in 2002 prices further increased by about 20% through 2007 before tumbling in the fourth quarter of 2008 and further declining this year, now down about 35% from the peak set just two years ago with the Frank Streeter Sale at Christie's, now officially the Jerome Kern Sale of the modern era.
By comparison, for material in this sale purchased between 1991 and 1995 the gain was 133%, for purchases made between 1996 and 1998 70%, for material purchased between 1999 and 2002 24%.
Over all the auction generated a 45% gain on a price paid - price sold basis and a 20% gain over a decade after auction commissions are deducted.
While returns on a cash or cash basis will not be affected the AE price index of comparative value to be updated in January may soon show that in 2009 values declined another 15% to bring the two year decline [2008 and 2009] to 36%, roughly comparable to 1998 levels. That this sale did much better is not surprising given the excellent quality of the items.
As to what this says about the market, while it is early, it appears that the very best material continues to attract buyers. Where the market is having trouble is with material that is not easily differentiated from other copies of the same book or from other items in the same collecting category. The rule is often that if as many as seven copies are available at the same time there is an opportunity to make a careful comparison by quality and price. If there are eight perhaps it's not a rare book after all.
Bonhams, Dec. 8-18: Autograph Letter Signed ("Martinus Luther") to His Friend the Theologian Gerhard Wiskamp ("Gerardo Xantho Lampadario"). $100,000 - $150,000.
Bonhams, Dec. 8-18: An Exceptionally Fine Copy of Austenís Emma: A Novel in Three Volumes. $40,000 - $60,000.
Bonhams, Dec. 8-18: Presentation Copy of Ernest Hemmingwayís A Farewell to Arms for Edward Titus of the Black Mankin Press. $30,000 - $50,000.
Bonhams, Dec. 8-18: Autograph Manuscript Signed Integrally for "The Songs of Pooh," by Alan Alexander. $30,000 - $50,000.
Bonhams, Dec. 8-18: Autograph Manuscript of "Three Fragments from Gˆtterd‰mmerung" by Richard Wagner. $30,000 - $50,000.
Bonhams, Dec. 8-18: Original Preliminary Artwork, for the First Edition of Snow Crash. $20,000 - $30,000.
Bonhams, Dec. 8-18: Autograph Letter Signed ("T.R. Malthus") to Economist Nassau Senior on Wealth, Labor and Adam Smith. $20,000 - $30,000.
Bonhams, Dec. 8-18: History of the Peloponnesian War by Thucydides Finely Bound by Michael Wilcox. $20,000 - $30,000.
Bonhams, Dec. 8-18: First Edition of Lewis and Clark: Travels to the Source of the Missouri River and Across the American Continent to the Pacific Ocean. $8,000 - $12,000.
Bonhams, Dec. 8-18: Original Artwork for the First Edition of Neal Stephenson's Groundbreaking Novel Snow Crash. $100,000 - $150,000.
Bonhams, Dec. 8-18: A Complete Set Signed Deluxe Editions of King's The Dark Tower Series by Stephen King. $8,000 - $12,000.
Bonhams, Dec. 8-18: Autograph Letter Signed ("John Adams") to James Le Ray de Chaumont During the Crucial Years of the Revolutionary War. $8,000 - $12,000.
Sotheby’s Book Week December 9-17, 2025
Sotheby’s, Dec. 12: Hooke, Robert. Micrographia: or some Physiological Descriptions of Minute Bodies made by Magnifying Glasses. London: James Allestry for the Royal Society, 1667. $12,000 to $15,000.
Sotheby’s, Dec. 12: Chappuzeau, Samuel. The history of jewels, first edition in English. London: T.N. for Hobart Kemp, 1671. $12,000 to $18,000.
Sotheby’s, Dec. 12: Sowerby, James. Exotic Mineralogy, containing his most realistic mineral depictions, London: Benjamin Meredith, 1811, Arding and Merrett, 1817. $5,000 to $7,000.
Heritage Auctions Rare Books Signature Auction December 15, 2025
Heritage, Dec. 15: John Donne. Poems, By J. D. With Elegies on the Author's Death. London: M[iles]. F[lesher]. for John Marriot, 1633.
Heritage, Dec. 15: Edgar Rice Burroughs. Tarzan of the Apes.
Heritage, Dec. 15: F. Scott Fitzgerald. Tender is the Night. A Romance.
Heritage, Dec. 15: Jerry Thomas. How to Mix Drinks, or the Bon-Vivant's Companion, Containing Clear and Reliable Directions for Mixing All the Beverages Used in the United States…
![<b>Heritage, Dec. 15:</b> John Donne. <i>Poems, By J. D. With Elegies on the Author's Death.</i> London: M[iles]. F[lesher]. for John Marriot, 1633.](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/8caddaea-4c1f-47a7-9455-62f53af36e3f.jpg "<b>Heritage, Dec. 15:</b> John Donne. <i>Poems, By J. D. With Elegies on the Author's Death.</i> London: M[iles]. F[lesher]. for John Marriot, 1633.")
