Rare Book Monthly
Articles - January - 2010 Issue
Taking an Auction Apart, Putting a Market Back Together
On AE we maintain current value indexes and update them each January based on the roughly 200,000 auctions lots we cover each year world-wide. From these indices we know that, generally, material purchased between 1991 and 1995 achieved a 106% return in the auction rooms in 2008; for material purchased between 1996 to 1998 a 44% increase, and a 6% advance for material purchased between 1999 and 2002. We also know that subsequent to the purchase of the last books for the de Orbe Novo Collection in 2002 prices further increased by about 20% through 2007 before tumbling in the fourth quarter of 2008 and further declining this year, now down about 35% from the peak set just two years ago with the Frank Streeter Sale at Christie's, now officially the Jerome Kern Sale of the modern era.
By comparison, for material in this sale purchased between 1991 and 1995 the gain was 133%, for purchases made between 1996 and 1998 70%, for material purchased between 1999 and 2002 24%.
Over all the auction generated a 45% gain on a price paid - price sold basis and a 20% gain over a decade after auction commissions are deducted.
While returns on a cash or cash basis will not be affected the AE price index of comparative value to be updated in January may soon show that in 2009 values declined another 15% to bring the two year decline [2008 and 2009] to 36%, roughly comparable to 1998 levels. That this sale did much better is not surprising given the excellent quality of the items.
As to what this says about the market, while it is early, it appears that the very best material continues to attract buyers. Where the market is having trouble is with material that is not easily differentiated from other copies of the same book or from other items in the same collecting category. The rule is often that if as many as seven copies are available at the same time there is an opportunity to make a careful comparison by quality and price. If there are eight perhaps it's not a rare book after all.
Comparisons by vendor and comparisons by period are provided.
