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Articles - June - 2009 Issue

Trends in Book Auction Prices - New Charts Let You See Where the Market Is Going

- by Michael Stillman

Chart shows whether year-to-year prices are up or down.

Chart shows whether year-to-year prices are up or down.


By Michael Stillman

This month, the Americana Exchange initiates coverage of what we call "Trends in Book Auction Prices." We now provide three graphs that look at auction prices and sell-through rates going back over four years. Depending on whether you are buyer or seller, you may like or dislike what you see. We cannot change reality. What we do believe is an informed buyer or seller is always smarter than one who lacks information. That is the premise of this website, and these charts of auction trends provide one more data point of knowledge to help you make wise decisions.

Here are the three graphs, top to bottom:

1). 12-month moving average of median auction prices. Updated monthly, this chart graphs the median prices over the past 12 months. It shows you whether auction prices are trending up or down.

2). Year-to-year change in 12-month moving average. This compares the current 12-month median price, as shown above, with the same price as of one year ago. If prices have gone up, the graph will be positive; if they have gone down, it will be negative.

3). 12-month sell-through moving average. This is a chart of sell-through rates at auction, a 12-month moving average updated monthly. Find out whether auction houses are selling a higher, or lower, percentage of the books they offer.

Why do we use 12-month averages instead of just the most recent month's results? The answer is that there are too few auctions in any one month to provide a reliable sample. The graph would be a cacophony of peaks and valleys. A 12-month average smoothes out the spikes, enabling us to see what the trends truly are.

For those unfamiliar with moving averages, it simply is a regular updating of a constant period of time, in this case, one year. For example, our most recent 12-month period ran from May 1, 2008 - April 30, 2009. Once May auction results are received, a new point will be added to the graphs covering sales from June 1, 2008 - May 31, 2009.

The "Trends in Book Auction Prices" charts are found as a link from AE's Auction Search Page. This is the page that enables you to search book lots at upcoming auctions, view a summary of results and the top ten prices at the most recent 20 auctions, and view a calendar of future auctions and results of recently completed ones. You can click the following link if you wish to go directly to the new page of "Trends in Book Auction Prices."

Rare Book Monthly

  • ALDE, Apr. 8: GUEVARA (ANTONIO DE). Histoire de Marc-Aurèle, Empereur Romain, vray miroir et horloge des Princes. Paris, Pierre et Galliot du Pré, frères, 1565. €3,000 to €4,000.
    ALDE, Apr. 8: HEURES DE LA VIERGE. Horæ in laudem beatissimæ virginis Mariæ ad usum Romanum. Paris, Charles L'Angelier, 1556. €4,000 to €5,000.
    ALDE, Apr. 8: MONTAIGNE (MICHEL DE). Les Essais. Édition nouvelle, trouvée après le deceds de l'autheur… Paris, Abel L'Angelier, 1595. €6,000 to €8,000.
    ALDE, Apr. 8: [ROJAS (FERNANDO DE)]. Celestina, tragicomedia di Calisto et Melibea, tradotta de lingua castigliana in italiano idioma… Venise, 1531. €2,000 to €3,000.
    ALDE, Apr. 8: CAMÕES (LUÍS DE). Os Lusiadas. Lisbonne, Pedro Crasbeeck, 1613. €2,000 to €3,000.
    ALDE, Apr. 8: CERVANTES (MIGUEL DE). El Ingenioso hidalgo Don Quixote de la Mancha. Bruxelles, Roger Velpius & Huberto Antonio, 1611. €6,000 to €8,000.
    ALDE, Apr. 8: LA FONTAINE (JEAN DE). Fables choisies, mises en vers. Paris, Denys Thierry et Claude Barbin, 1678-1694. €6,000 to €8,000.
    ALDE, Apr. 8: CERVANTES (MIGUEL DE). El Ingenioso hidalgo Don Quixote de la Mancha. Madrid, Joaquin Ibarra, 1780. €3,000 to €4,000.
    ALDE, Apr. 8: DIDEROT (DENIS) ET JEAN LE ROND D'ALEMBERT. Encyclopédie, ou dictionnaire raisonné des sciences, des arts et des métiers. Paris, 1751-1765. €15,000 to €20,000.
    ALDE, Apr. 8: [LIVRE TISSÉ]. LAMARTINE (Alphonse de). Les Laboureurs. Poème tiré de Jocelyn… Lyon, J. A. Henry, 1883. €8,000 to €10,000.
    ALDE, Apr. 8: [LIVRE TISSÉ]. Livre de prières tissé d'après les enluminures des manuscrits du XIVe au XVIe siècle. Lyon, [A. Roux], 1886. €5,000 to €6,000.
  • Sotheby’s
    Books, Manuscripts & Objects from Three Important Collections
    Open for Bidding 2-17 April
    Sotheby’s, Apr. 2-17: [Guillaume de Lorris and Jean de Meun]. Le Roman de la Rose, [Geneva or Lyons, c.1481], first printed edition of the most important medieval French vernacular poem. £200,000 to £300,000.
    Sotheby’s, Apr. 2-17: Castiglione. Il libro del cortegiano. [Venice], April 1528, first edition, in a magnificent binding by Jean Picard for Jean Grolier. £100,000 to £150,000.
    Sotheby’s, Apr. 2-17: Jacobus de Cessolis. Schachzabelbuch, Strasbourg, 1483, von der Lasa copy. £50,000 to £70,000.
    Sotheby’s, Apr. 2-17: World Championship, 1972. A collection of 84 press photographs of the famed match between Spassky and Fischer. £2,000 to £3,000.
    Sotheby’s, Apr. 2-17: Ben Franklin. Autograph letter signed, to Lord Shelburne, British Prime Minister, during peace negotiations, November 1782. £15,000 to £20,000.

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