Rare Book Monthly

Articles - February - 2009 Issue

Book Prices Plunged Over 20% in 2008

Auction prices for books slipped in 2008.


By Michael Stillman


Book prices at auction tumbled sharply in 2008, as the collectible book market fell victim to the steep economic recession. While sales prices, as opposed to listing prices, tend to be obscure for want of a clear, visible record, AE tracked over 220,000 books and related items at auction last year for its AE Bibliographic Database. Those numbers reveal that the median price at auction dropped over $100, from $486 to $384, a decline of 21%. Part of this was a give back of the previous year's 15% increase. Nevertheless, this is the lowest number in the five years AE has been tracking books at auction, still 7% below the previous low mark of $413 in 2004. While that may sound shocking, The S&P stock index fell to ten-year lows in 2008, and even gasoline retreated to 2003 levels. Books are not as volatile as stocks, oil, or real estate, but they are not immune to market conditions, even if this point is not always so plain to see.

The average price at auction dropped a staggering amount - $887 - from the previous year. However, the average price can be skewed by a few very expensive items. The $21.3 million Magna Carta alone added over $100 to the average price in 2007. The median, or midpoint price of 220,000 items tracked, is not subject to such anomalies and, we believe, more accurately reflects the true state of the market.

While the AE does not have sufficient data from years prior to 2004 to provide specific figures, the past two declines in pricing appeared at the beginning of this decade and the previous one. Those corresponded with the post-internet bubble stock crash and the recession that doomed the first Bush administration. There were others before this, and it appears that some of these may have been in the range of the 20% decline we have just seen. If the market flattens out now, the current recession in the book market will be unpleasant but not that unusual. However, if prices continue to fall in 2009, and the trends through December indicate continued deterioration, it is possible we could see the largest decline since the Great Depression. Our records indicate a decline of over 50% at that time.

Sell through rates also implied softness in the market. That rate was 75% in 2007, and between 2004 and 2007 ranged from 74% to 76%. For 2008, it dropped to 71%. Of those that sold, 47% went for over the high estimate, 29% under the low estimate. That represents a 2% shift downward from the prior year's 49%-27% ratio. When unsold items are added to those sold under the low estimate, it shows that almost 50% of the books and related items offered at auction failed to achieve their low estimate. That number was 45% the previous year. Only 33% of all items offered sold for over the maximum, compared to 37% in 2007.

The highest median and average sales were once again achieved at Sotheby's in New York, with a median of $15,000 and an average of $40,782. Those figures were virtually identical to the previous year, but the number of lots offered was less than half. Sixteen houses achieved medians of over $1,000 per lot, including 4 branches of Christie's and Bonham's, 3 of Sotheby's, and one each of Koller, Bloomsbury, Doyle, Swann, and Artcurial Briest. Of these 16, half were located in America (6 in New York, one each in Los Angeles and San Francisco), 4 in London, 3 in Paris, 1 in Zurich. Kiefer auctions of Germany offered the greatest number of lots - 18,790 - while others offering over 10,000 lots were Bloomsbury in London, Bubb Kuyper of the Netherlands, and Swann's in New York.

Rare Book Monthly

  • Sotheby’s
    Fine Books from a Distinguished Private Library
    28 November 2023
    Sotheby’s, Nov. 28: Captain Thomas Brown | Illustrations of the American ornithology. £80000-120000
    Sotheby’s, Nov. 28: William Hamilton | Campi phlegraei. £40000-60000
    Sotheby’s, Nov. 28: Nicola Zabaglia and Domenico Fontana | Castelli, e ponti con alcune ingegnose pratiche. £6000-8000
    Sotheby’s, Nov. 28: Bible, German | Nuremberg: Koberger, 1483. £40000-60000
    Sotheby’s, Nov. 28: Bible, English | King James version. £8000-12000
  • Forum Auctions
    Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works on Paper
    30th November, 2023
    Forum Auctions, Nov. 30: Saint Jerome penitent, woodcut with contemporary hand-colouring and letterpress text beneath, [Augsburg], [Johann Froschauer], [c.1498]. £15,000 to £20,000.
    Forum Auctions, Nov. 30: Elimithar (Elluchasem) "Ibn Butlan". Tacuini sanitatis, first edition, Strasbourg, Johann Schott, 1531. £15,000 to £20,000.
    Forum Auctions, Nov. 30: [Missale Romanum], Latin, Incipit ordo missalis secundum consuetudinem Curiae Romani, manuscript in Latin, on vellum, 234ff. [c. 1400]. £15,000 to £20,000.
    Forum Auctions
    Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works on Paper
    30th November, 2023
    Forum Auctions, Nov. 30: Foyle copy.- [Shakespeare (William)]. Macbeth. A Tragedy: With all the Alterations, Amendments, Additions, and New Songs. As it is now Acted at the Theatre Royal, for Hen. Herringman, 1687. £5,000 to £7,000.
    Forum Auctions, Nov. 30: Dickens (Charles). A Christmas Carol. In Prose. Being a Ghost Story of Christmas, first edition, first impression, first issue, Chapman & Hall, 1843. £12,000 to £18,000.
    Forum Auctions, Nov. 30: Lawrence (T.E.) Revolt in the Desert, working draft typescript, 1927. £10,000 to £15,000.
    Forum Auctions
    Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works on Paper
    30th November, 2023
    Forum Auctions, Nov. 30: Hampstead Bindery.- Phillips (Stephen). Marpessa, exquisitely bound by The Hampstead Bindery, almost certainly P.A. Savoldelli, 1900. £6,000 to £8,000.
    Forum Auctions, Nov. 30: Matisse (Henri).- Joyce (James). Ulysses, one of 1500 copies, this one of 250 signed by the author and artist, New York, The Limited Editions Club, 1935. £8,000 to £12,000.
    Forum Auctions, Nov. 30: Burroughs (Edgar Rice). Tarzan at the Earth's Core, first edition, signed presentation inscription from the author to his son, New York, 1930. £5,000 to £7,000.
    Forum Auctions
    Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works on Paper
    30th November, 2023
    Forum Auctions, Nov. 30: Fitzgerald (F. Scott). Tender is the Night, first edition, first printing, signed by the author, New York, 1934. £15,000 to £20,000.
    Forum Auctions, Nov. 30: Fleming (Ian).- Hooks (Mitchell) and David Chasman. Dr. No, British film poster, Stafford & Co Ltd, [1962]. £10,000 to £15,000.
    Forum Auctions, Nov. 30: America.- California.- Palou (Francisco). Relacion Historica de la Vida Y Apostolicas Tareas delVenerable Padre Fray Junipero Serra..., first edition, second issue, 1787. £6,000 to £8,000.
  • Swann
    Maps & Atlases, Natural History & Color Plate Books
    December 7, 2023
    Swann, Dec. 7: Samuel Augustus Mitchell, A New Map of Texas, Oregon and California with the Regions Adjoining, Philadelphia, 1846. $3,500 to $5,000.
    Swann, Dec. 7: 17th–19th-century case maps of various locations. $1,500 to $2,000.
    Swann, Dec. 7: Andreas Cellarius, Haemisphaerium Stellatum Boreale Cum Subiecto Haemisphaerio Terrestri, celestial chart, Amsterdam, 1708. $2,500 to $3,500.
    Swann
    Maps & Atlases, Natural History & Color Plate Books
    December 7, 2023
    Swann, Dec. 7: Vincenzo Coronelli, Set of engraved gores for Coronelli’s monumental 42-inch terrestrial globe, Venice, circa 1688–97. $18,000 to $22,000.
    Swann, Dec. 7: Lucas Janszoon Waghenaer, group of four navigational charts, Antwerp, 1580s. $2,000 to $3,000.
    Swann, Dec. 7: Thomas Bros, Block Book of Berkeley, Oakland, 1920s. $800 to $1,200.
    Swann
    Maps & Atlases, Natural History & Color Plate Books
    December 7, 2023
    Swann, Dec. 7: John Nieuhoff & John Ogilby, An Embassy from the East-India Company of the United Provinces, map of China, plan of Canton, London, 1673. $1,200 to $1,800.
    Swann, Dec. 7: Frederick Sander, Reichenbachia, St. Albans, 1888-1894. $5,000 to $7,000.
    Swann, Dec. 7: Two early illustrated works on horsemanship and breeding, Nuremberg, early 18th century. $700 to $800.
    Swann
    Maps & Atlases, Natural History & Color Plate Books
    December 7, 2023
    Swann, Dec. 7: John Gould, A Monograph of the Ramphastidae, or Family of Toucans. Supplement to the First Edition, London, 1834; 1855. $40,000 to $60,000.
    Swann, Dec. 7: John Pinkerton, A General Collection of the Best and Most Interesting Voyages and Travels in All Parts of the World, London, 1808–14. $1,500 to $2,500.
    Swann, Dec. 7: Oakley Hoopes Bailey, Hackensack, New Jersey, Boston, 1896. $800 to $1,200.
  • Fonsie Mealy’s, Dec. 12-13: Roberts (David) & Croly (George). The Holy Land, Syria, Idumae, Arabia, Egypt and Nubia. Lond. 1842 - 1843 [-49]. First Edn. €10,000 to €15,000.
    Fonsie Mealy’s, Dec. 12-13: Incunabula: O'Fihily (Maurice). Duns Scotus Joannes: O'Fihely, Maurice Abp… Venice, 20th November 1497. €8,000 to €12,000.
    Fonsie Mealy’s, Dec. 12-13: An important file of documents with provenance to G.A. Newsom, manager of the Jacob’s Factory in Dublin, occupied by insurgents during Easter Week 1916. €6,000 to €9,000.
    Fonsie Mealy’s, Dec. 12-13: WILDE (Oscar), 1854-1900, playwright, aesthete and wit. A lock of Wilde’s Hair, presented by his son to the distinguished Irish actor Mícheál MacLiammóir. €6,000 to €8,000.
    Fonsie Mealy’s, Dec. 12-13: Heaney (Seamus). Bog Poems, London, 1975. Special Limited Edition, No. 33 of 150 Copies, Signed by Author. Illus. by Barrie Cooke. €4,000 to €6,000.
    Fonsie Mealy’s, Dec. 12-13: Binding: Burke, Thomas O.P. (de Burgo). Hibernia Dominicana, Sive Historia Provinciae Hiberniae Ordinis Praedicatorum, ... 1762. First Edition. €4,000 to €6,000.
    Fonsie Mealy’s, Dec. 12-13: COLLINS, Michael. An important TL, 29 July 1922, addressed to GOVERNMENT on ‘suggested Proclamation warning all concerned that troops have orders to shoot prisoners found sniping, ambushing etc.’. €3,000 to €4,000.
    Fonsie Mealy’s, Dec. 12-13: Scott Fitzgerald (F.) The Great Gatsby, New York (Charles Scribner's Sons) 1925, First Edn. €2,000 to €3,000.
    Fonsie Mealy’s, Dec. 12-13: Yeats (W.B.) The Poems of W.B. Yeats, 2 vols. Lond. (MacMillan & Co.) 1949. Limited Edition, No. 46 of 375 Copies Only, Signed by W.B. Yeats. €1,500 to €2,000.
    Fonsie Mealy’s, Dec. 12-13: Miller (William) Publisher. The Costume of the Russian Empire, Description in English and French, Lg. folio London (S. Gosnell) 1803. First Edn. €1,000 to €1,500.
    Fonsie Mealy’s, Dec. 12-13: Miller (William) Publisher. The Costume of Turkey, Illustrated by a Series of Engravings. Lg. folio Lond.(T. Bensley) 1802. First Edn. €800 to €1,200.
    Fonsie Mealy’s, Dec. 12-13: Mason (Geo. Henry). The Costume of China, Illustrated with Sixty Engravings. Lg. folio London (for W. Miller) 1800. First Edn. €1,400 to €1,800
  • ABAA VBF: Holiday Edition
    November 30-December 2
    abaa.org/vbf
    ABAA VBF: Holiday Edition
    November 30-December 2
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    ABAA VBF: Holiday Edition
    November 30-December 2
    abaa.org/vbf
    ABAA VBF: Holiday Edition
    November 30-December 2
    abaa.org/vbf
    ABAA VBF: Holiday Edition
    November 30-December 2
    abaa.org/vbf
    ABAA VBF: Holiday Edition
    November 30-December 2
    abaa.org/vbf
    ABAA VBF: Holiday Edition
    November 30-December 2
    abaa.org/vbf
    ABAA VBF: Holiday Edition
    November 30-December 2
    abaa.org/vbf
    ABAA VBF: Holiday Edition
    November 30-December 2
    abaa.org/vbf
    ABAA VBF: Holiday Edition
    November 30-December 2
    abaa.org/vbf

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