Collectible paper at auction has been on a tear post-Covid and now we’re entering a period of political uncertainty. To understand how the auctions and their consignors are responding, our auction data provides perspective on how the market is unfolding.
Given this, here are possible projections for 2024.
The auctions we posted and completed through 30 May, 2024, are showing substantial growth both for the number of auctions and lots posted.
I then compared both the number of auctions and lots posted for January – May for the past 3 years to see what their January - May numbers turned into for their full years. On average J-M’s numbers turned out to be 40% what the full year’s results became.* This means this year's 1,158 sales are projecting 2,907 sales for the full year. If so, Golly Gee Willikers!
Year J-M
Auctions
Lots
2021
858
236,960
2022
990
261,460
2023
1008
261,076
2024
1158
284,489
Full Year
Lots Offered
Lots Sold
% Sold
2.5 x J-M
2319
636,853
522,032
82%
2.7
2354
626,346
504,795
81%
2.38
2480
658,433
525,433
80%
2.46
2,907
714,067
571,254
78%
2.51
And can we reach a billion dollars for collectible paper again?
The answer is yes if the average sale is $1,750.05.
All this said, we have no idea how this year’s political uncertainty is going to affect consignments. Right now, it’s full speed ahead!
Bonhams: Consign With Us Today These are the Times that Try Men's Souls. Paine, Thomas. Sold for US$152,900.
Bonhams: Consign With Us Today The First Printed Work on Political Economy. Sold for US$127,000.
Bonhams: Consign With Us Today Signed Lincoln Photograph with Son Tad. Sold for US$76,700.
Bonhams: Consign With Us Today First Expanded Edition of Common Sense. Paine, Thomas. Sold for US$76,700.
Bonhams: Consign With Us Today Presentation Copy of Hemmingway's First Book. Sold for US$70,350.
Bonhams: Consign With Us Today St. John's Gospel on Vellum, A Fragment in Greek, 5th Century. Sold for US$70,350.
Bonhams: Consign With Us Today Only A Handful of Surviving Copies. Joyce, James. Ulysses. Sold for US$58,880.
Bonhams: Consign With Us Today A Pivotal Step in Einstein's Development of General Relativity. Sold for US$51,200.
Bonhams: Consign With Us Today A Fine Jewelled Binding Signed by Sangorski & Sutcliffe. Sold for US$56,320.
Bonhams: Consign With Us Today Joyce's Annotated Typescript Draft for Finnegan's Wake. Sold for US$48,640.
Bonhams: Consign With Us Today One of 30 Pre-Publication Copies, Inscribed by Hemingway to Spencer Tracy, Who Played "The Old Man". Sold for US$83,050.
Sotheby’s Year in Review
Sotheby’s Year in Review: A Rare Hebrew Bible with Micrographic Masorah. Sold: 1,514,000 USD
Sotheby’s Year in Review: "The Freedman's Primer.” Sold: 241,300 USD
Sotheby’s Year in Review: Smith, William. "The Map that Changed the World." Sold: 139,700 USD
Sotheby’s Year in Review: Psalter, C13th. Illuminated Psalter. Sold: 330,200 GBP
Sotheby’s Year in Review: Lincoln, Abraham. The abolition of slavery. Sold: 13,697,500 USD
Sotheby’s Year in Review: Vergilius. Opera, Venice, Aldo Manuzio, 1501. Sold: 1,041,400 USD
