Collectible paper at auction has been on a tear post-Covid and now we’re entering a period of political uncertainty. To understand how the auctions and their consignors are responding, our auction data provides perspective on how the market is unfolding.
Given this, here are possible projections for 2024.
The auctions we posted and completed through 30 May, 2024, are showing substantial growth both for the number of auctions and lots posted.
I then compared both the number of auctions and lots posted for January – May for the past 3 years to see what their January - May numbers turned into for their full years. On average J-M’s numbers turned out to be 40% what the full year’s results became.* This means this year's 1,158 sales are projecting 2,907 sales for the full year. If so, Golly Gee Willikers!
Year J-M
Auctions
Lots
2021
858
236,960
2022
990
261,460
2023
1008
261,076
2024
1158
284,489
Full Year
Lots Offered
Lots Sold
% Sold
2.5 x J-M
2319
636,853
522,032
82%
2.7
2354
626,346
504,795
81%
2.38
2480
658,433
525,433
80%
2.46
2,907
714,067
571,254
78%
2.51
And can we reach a billion dollars for collectible paper again?
The answer is yes if the average sale is $1,750.05.
All this said, we have no idea how this year’s political uncertainty is going to affect consignments. Right now, it’s full speed ahead!
Sotheby’s Fine Manuscript and Printed Americana 27 January 2026
Sotheby’s, Jan. 27: An extraordinary pair of books from George Washington’s field library, marking the conjunction of Robert Rogers, George Washington, and Henry Knox. $1,200,000 to $1,800,000.
Sotheby’s, Jan. 27: An extraordinary letter marking the conjunction of George Washington, the Marquis de Lafayette, and Benjamin Franklin. $1,000,000 to $1,500,000.
Sotheby’s, Jan. 27: Virginia House of Delegates. The genesis of the Declaration of Independence and the Bill of Rights. $350,000 to $500,000.
Sotheby’s Fine Manuscript and Printed Americana 27 January 2026
Sotheby’s, Jan. 27: (Gettysburg). “Genl. Doubleday has taken charge of the battle”: Autograph witness to the first day of the Battle of Gettysburg, illustrated by fourteen maps and plans. $200,000 to $300,000.
Sotheby’s, Jan. 27: President Lincoln thanks a schoolboy on behalf of "all the children of the nation for his efforts to ensure "that this war shall be successful, and the Union be maintained and perpetuated." $200,000 to $300,000.
Sotheby’s, Jan. 27: [World War II]. An archive of maps and files documenting the allied campaign in Europe, from the early stages of planning for D-Day and Operation Overlord, to Germany’s surrender. $200,000 to $300,000.
![<b>Sotheby’s, Jan. 27:</b> [World War II]. An archive of maps and files documenting the allied campaign in Europe, from the early stages of planning for D-Day and Operation Overlord, to Germany’s surrender. $200,000 to $300,000.](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/9d2762bc-9f26-47ef-96de-1c28070e19f6.png "<b>Sotheby’s, Jan. 27:</b> [World War II]. An archive of maps and files documenting the allied campaign in Europe, from the early stages of planning for D-Day and Operation Overlord, to Germany’s surrender. $200,000 to $300,000.")