Rare Book Monthly

Articles - July - 2024 Issue

Auctions in a time of uncertainty

Auctions are thriving

Auctions are thriving

Collectible paper at auction has been on a tear post-Covid and now we’re entering a period of political uncertainty.  To understand how the auctions and their consignors are responding, our auction data provides perspective on how the market is unfolding.

 

Given this, here are possible projections for 2024.

 

The auctions we posted and completed through 30 May, 2024, are showing substantial growth both for the number of auctions and lots posted.

 

I then compared both the number of auctions and lots posted for January – May for the past 3 years to see what their January - May numbers turned into for their full years. On average J-M’s numbers turned out to be 40% what the full year’s results became.*  This means this year's 1,158 sales are projecting 2,907 sales for the full year.  If so, Golly Gee Willikers!

Year J-M

Auctions

Lots

 

2021

858

236,960

 
       

2022

990

261,460

 
       

2023

1008

261,076

 
       

2024

1158

284,489

 

 

 

Full Year 

Lots Offered

Lots Sold

% Sold

2.5 x J-M

2319

636,853

522,032

                   82%

2.7

         

2354

626,346

504,795

81%

2.38

         

2480

658,433

525,433

80%

2.46

         

2,907

714,067

571,254

78%

2.51

 

 

            And can we reach a billion dollars for collectible paper again?

 

The answer is yes if the average sale is $1,750.05.

 

All this said, we have no idea how this year’s political uncertainty is going to affect consignments.  Right now, it’s full speed ahead!

           


Posted On: 2024-07-08 16:49
User Name: shakey

These numbers seem similar to the the CPI number. If you include certain items and exclude others, the numbers can be anything you want them to be.


Rare Book Monthly

  • Forum Auctions
    Natural History: The remaining stock of Antiquariaat Junk, 1899-2026
    25 March 2026
    Forum, Mar. 25: Botany.- Andrews (H.C.) Coloured Engravings of Heaths, 4 vol. in 2, first edition, [1710,--94]-1802-1809-[1830]. £10,000 - £15,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Butterflies.- Cramer (Pierre) and Caspar Stoll. De Uitlandsche Kapellen voorkomende in de drie Waereld-Deelen…,, 5 vol., Amsterdam & Utrecht, 1779-91. £8,000 - £12,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Voyages.- Darwin (Charles) and others. Narrative of the Surveying Voyages of His Majesty's Ships Adventure and Beagle, 3 vol. in 4, including Appendix to vol.2, first edition, 1839. £8,000 - £12,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Butterflies.- de Graaf (Willem Diederik Vincent). [Inlandsche Kapellen in beeld], 170 fine original watercolours, [Enkhuizen], [1800-40]. £8,000 - £12,000.
    Forum Auctions
    Natural History: The remaining stock of Antiquariaat Junk, 1899-2026
    25 March 2026
    Forum, Mar. 25: Birds.- Dresser (Henry Eeles). A History of the Birds of Europe, 9 vol., including supplement, first edition, by the author, 1871-96. £6,000 - £8,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Zoology.- Felines.- Elliot (Daniel Giraud). A Monograph of the Felidæ or Family of the Cats, first edition, for the Subscribers, by the Author, [1878]-1883. £25,000 - £30,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Birds.- Frisch (Johann Leonard). Vorstellung der Vögel Deutschlandes, 2 vol., first edition, Berlin, Friedr. Wilhelm Birnsteil, [1736]-1763. £40,000 - £60,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Birds.- Gould (John). The Birds of Great Britain, 5 vol., first edition, by the author, 1862-1873. £30,000 - £40,000.
    Forum Auctions
    Natural History: The remaining stock of Antiquariaat Junk, 1899-2026
    25 March 2026
    Forum, Mar. 25: Pomology.- France.- Poiteau (A.) Pomologie Française. Recueil des Plus Beaux Fruits cultivés en France, 4 vol., Paris, 1846. £30,000 - £40,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Botany.- [Robin (Jean)]. Histoire des Plantes, nouvellement trouvées en l'Isle Virgine…,, 1620; with Geoffrey Linocier L'Histoire des plantes, second edition, 1619-20. £3,000 - £4,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Asia.- Japan.- Siebold (P.F. von). Nippon. Archiv zur Beschreibung von Japan, 7 parts in 6 vol., first edition, Leyden, [1832]-1852. £35,000 - £45,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Asia.- Valentijn (Francois). Oud en Nieuw Oost-Indiën..., 5 vol. in 8, first edition, Dordrecht [&] Amsterdam, 1724-26. £8,000 - £12,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Botany.- Australia.- Redouté (P.J.).- Ventenat (Étienne Pierre). Jardin de la Malmaison, 2 vol.,, Paris, 1803-04[-05]. £30,000 - £40,000.
  • ALDE, Mar. 11: AUGUSTIN (Saint). De civitate Dei. Rome, Konrad Sweynheym et Arnold Pannartz, 1470. €20,000 - €30,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: [REGNART (LE LIVRE DE)]. [Le] Docteur en malice, maistre Regnard, demonstrant les ruzes et cautelles qu'il use envers les personnes… Rouen, 1550. €20,000 - €30,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: TRITHÈME (JEAN). Polygraphie et universelle escriture cabalistique. Paris, [Benoît Prévost pour] Jacques Kerver, 1561. €8,000 - €10,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: CAUS (SALOMON DE). La Perspective, avec la raison des ombres et des miroirs. Londres, John Norton, 1612.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: NICERON (JEAN-FRANÇOIS). La Perspective curieuse ou magie artificielle des effets merveilleux de l'optique. Paris, Pierre Billaine, 1638. €6,000 - €8,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: VONTET (JACQUES). L’Art de trancher la viande et toute sorte de fruits… S.l.n.d. [probablement Lyon, vers 1647]. €20,000 - €30,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: HUGO (VICTOR). [Paysage spectral avec une église], [vers 1837]. €20,000 - €30,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: [HERVEY DE SAINT-DENYS (LÉON D')]. Les Rêves et les Moyens de les diriger. Observations pratiques. Paris, Amyot, 1867. €3,000 - €4,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: GACHET (PAUL-FERDINAND). Les Chats de Gachet (Manuscrit). S.d. [avant mai 1873]. €6,000 - €8,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: [REDON (ODILON)]. PICARD (EDMOND). Le Juré. Monodrame en cinq actes… Bruxelles, Mme veuve Monnom, 1887. €7,000 - €9,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: [TOULOUSE-LAUTREC (HENRI DE) ET HENRI-GABRIEL IBELS]. MONTORGUEIL (GEORGES). Le Café-concert. Paris, [1893]. €4,000 - €5,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: [TERRY (EMILIO)]. Projet de fontaine. Dessin original au stylo et à l'encre noire. 1938. €2,000 - €3,000.

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