Sotheby’s is still the straw that stirs the drink

Sotheby’s has announced they are capping their buyer’s maximum commission to 20%, down from 26 + 1%.

It has been apparent for some time that while auction outcomes for paintings and other high value collectibles were rising, Sotheby’s original business based on rare books, while best in class worldwide in 2023 among the 300 auction houses we cover, was also relatively quiet by their recent standards. Sotheby’s February announcement to lower their commission rates effective May 20th was probably principally based on improving their performance with paintings, their largest category. While Sotheby’s has often dominated collectible paper over the years, Christie’s has been turning paint, pigments and frames into gold. Now Sotheby’s new lower commission rates seem designed to encourage additional bids on paintings by lowering their buyer’s premium. In this calculation, collectible paper is almost an innocent bystander except that collectible paper and paintings share the same rate card. Simply stated, paintings are where the dough is.

Sotheby’s revised rates are logical based on objects worth well into the five figures but very few examples of collectible paper reach that threshold. Last year we covered 658,433 lots offered that turned into 525,664 sales worldwide, from which we have drawn our annual Top 500 lots for 2023. Leading off was Sotheby’s Codex Sassoon at $38,126,000 descending to No. 500, Bonham’s Darwin’s On the Origins of Species [1859] that sold for $93,449.00. Further below were the other 525,164 lots that sold, generating close to a billion dollars with a $1,904.17 average winning realization. In other words, most collectible paper is making tens of thousands of people’s hearts flutter but not many lots are going to be mentioned on the front pages of the New York Times.

My point is Sotheby’s new pricing is aimed to encourage bidders spending major money, while collectible paper is solid and healthy, is a few light years away. Using the same rate card for paper and paintings is going to need imagination.

High value collectibles have been on a very good run for the past 10 years while prices for paper rarely reach $90,000 for single lots [per our annual report]. Hence Sotheby’s adjusting their rates now to cater to the art and high value collectible markets is simply good sense.

While the headlines about Sotheby’s are speaking to and of the lower buyer’s premium, in the weeds is another important change, their fresh incentives to lower estimates. That’s going to increase their percentage of lots sold.

Now Collectible Paper needs to adjust.

For Sotheby’s and other houses that have this lucky predicament, to sell collectible paper and valuable paintings, they can match Sotheby’s headline figure: 20%, by reinstating the previously waived or reduced consigner’s fees. Presto the houses’ net margins are restored and collectible paper’s place in their pantheons remain secure.

This does not suggest that the collectible paper auction market is unhealthy, rather than when an auction house makes policy based on expensive paintings and other high ticket material, collectible paper’s consignor fees are going to be firmer.

In any event, many rising mid-tier auction houses may find themselves benefiting from the focus on higher value material by their stately brethren, leaving them opportunities to sell superb material that falls outside of their target range.

Certainly the vast majority of Collectible Paper will continue to flow easily into those rooms that are open to it. Adjustments in fees will be resolved. And because a fresh wave of Collectible Paper, primarily ephemera is now looking for auction rooms to accommodate them, many houses will offer them a safe harbor.

The world changes.

Here are their lots within our Top 500 for 2023:

1	38,126,000	USD 30,000,000.00 - 50,000,000.00	.	Codex Sassoon	.
1	1,744,000	USD 1,500,000.00 - 2,000,000.00		Ydea Topografica de los altos del Missisipi y del Missouri. Que demuestra los progresos de la compañia Española de descubiertas del rio Missouri, y las usurpaciones de las companies inglesas sobre las posesiones Españolas. …		[Antoine Soulard]
1	1,722,168	GBP 800,000.00 - 1,200,000.00		Autograph manuscript draft lyrics for 'Bohemian Rhapsody', c.1974		Freddie Mercury
1	889,000	USD 700,000.00 - 1,000,000.00		Articles of Agreement, assigning to Sir Humphrey Gilbert 1,500,000 acres of land		Sir Humphrey Gilbert
1	698,500	USD 300,000.00 - 500,000.00		Typescript scroll of The Dharma Bums. Typed by Kerouac in Orlando, Florida, 1957, published by Viking in 1958		Kerouac, Jack
1	635,000	USD 250,000.00 - 300,000.00		Trattato della pittura, manuscript on paper		Leonardo da Vinci
1	546,134	GBP 150,000.00 - 200,000.00		A unique set of 14 daguerreotypes of the officers of the Franklin expedition, 1845		Richard Beard Studio
1	533,400	USD 250,000.00 - 300,000.00		Petri Criniti Libri de poetis Latinis.		Crinito, Pietro.
1	529,200	USD 400,000.00 - 600,000.00		The President's Answer. To the Hebrew Congregation, in Newport, Rhode Island, in The Herald of Freedom, Vol. IV, Numb. LI.		George Washington
1	529,200	USD 400,000.00 - 600,000.00		A True Relation of such occurrences and accidents of noateas hath hapned in Virginia since the first planting of that Collony, which is now resident in the South part thereof, till the last returne from thence. Written by a Gentleman of the said Collony,		[John Smith]
1	508,000	USD 100,000.00 - 150,000.00		Mao Zedong, Calligraphic autograph letter to Evans Carlson, 9th May (1937)
1	508,000	USD 40,000.00 - 60,000.00		A signed photograph of Mao Zedong at Yan'an, dedicated to Evans Carlson, circa 1937
1	482,600	USD 400,000.00 - 500,000.00		Il terzo libro; Regole generali		Serlio
1	482,600	USD 300,000.00 - 400,000.00		The Federalist: A Collection of Essays, Written in Favour of the New Constitution, as Agreed upon by the Federal Convention, September 17, 1787.		(Hamilton, Alexander, James Madison, and John Jay)
1	446,099	EUR 5,000.00 - 7,000.00		Coran enlumine.
63	412,371	GBP 200,000.00 - 300,000.00		Notebook with autograph manuscript lyrics for songs in the album Jazz, c.1978		Freddie Mercury
67	396,511	GBP 120,000.00 - 180,000.00		Autograph manuscript draft lyrics for 'Don't Stop Me Now', c.1978		Freddie Mercury
68	396,511	GBP 200,000.00 - 300,000.00		Autograph draft working lyrics for 'We Are The Champions', c.1977		Freddie Mercury
69	388,665	GBP 100,000.00 - 150,000.00		Autograph manuscript of Hagars Klage, D.5, SCHUBERT'S FIRST SURVIVING SONG, SIGNED BY THE 14-YEAR-OLD COMPOSER ("Franz Schubert")		Franz Schubert
73	381,000	USD 400,000.00 - 600,000.00		Hypnerotomachia Poliphili : ubi humana omnia non nisisomnium esse docet atque obiter plurima scitu sane quam digna commemorat [Latin and Italian]		Colonna, Francesco.
77	369,532	GBP 30,000.00 - 50,000.00		Mr Adams' Album, a large album of watercolours depicting people, ceremonies, occupations, genre scenes, architecture, and flora and fauna, India, Bengal, and Burma, circa 1828-40		Mr Adams
82	355,600	USD 280,000.00 - 350,000.00		Carmina, manuscript on vellum		Tiraboschi
83	348,930	GBP 50,000.00 - 70,000.00		Autograph draft lyrics for 'Killer Queen', c.1974		Freddie Mercury
86	333,069	GBP 30,000.00 - 50,000.00		A folio from an Akbarnama, A prince on horseback with his entourage, India, circa 1595-1600		Mughal, attributed to the artist Khem
88	325,139	GBP 40,000.00 - 60,000.00		Autograph draft lyrics to 'Love of My Life', c.1974-75		Freddie Mercury
95	304,800	USD 40,000.00 - 60,000.00		The original manuscript for "Snow Crash," 1991-1992		Neal Stephenson
97	301,348	GBP 150,000.00 - 200,000.00		Autograph draft lyrics for 'Somebody To Love', c.1976		Freddie Mercury
98	301,348	GBP 30,000.00 - 50,000.00		Autograph manuscript lyrics for songs on the album 'A Night at the Opera', c.1975		Freddie Mercury
111	279,400	USD 200,000.00 - 300,000.00		Il libro del cortegiano del conte Baldessar Castiglione. Nuovamente ristampato		Castiglione, Baldassarre.
120	266,700	USD 275,000.00 - 350,000.00		Divina proportione; Euclid Opera		Pacioli; Euclid
139	241,300	USD 200,000.00 - 300,000.00		Athenaeus Naucratita.		Athenaeus Naucratita.
140	241,300	USD 70,000.00 - 100,000.00		Mansfield Park, the first edition in original boards --- a rare survival		[Austen, Jane]
141	241,300	USD 70,000.00 - 100,000.00		A handsome first edition in boards of the author's debut novel		[Austen, Jane]
152	228,600	USD 20,000.00 - 30,000.00		The original typesetting manuscript for "Snow Crash," ca. 1992.		Neal Stephenson
154	226,800	USD 180,000.00 - 220,000.00		The Federalist: A Collection of Essays, written in favour of the new Constitution, as agreed upon by the Federal Convention, September 17, 1787.		Alexander Hamilton, James Madison, and John Jay
155	226,721	GBP 100,000.00 - 150,000.00		Clavier Ubung bestehend in einer Aria mit verschiedenen Veraenderungen vors Clavicimbal mit 2 Manualen.		Johann Sebastian Bach
166	215,900	USD 100,000.00 - 150,000.00		Jane Austen's copy of Curiosities of Literature		[Austen, Jane] --- Isaac D'Israeli
168	214,116	GBP 40,000.00 - 60,000.00		Autograph manuscript lyrics of songs for the album Sheer Heart Attack, c.1974		Freddie Mercury
182	203,200	USD 200,000.00 - 300,000.00		M.T.C. Epistolae familiares.		Cicero, Marcus Tullius.
183	203,200	USD 80,000.00 - 100,000.00		Catullus, Tibullus, Propertius,		Catullus, Tibullus, Propertius,
184	203,200	USD 200,000.00 - 300,000.00		Il libro del cortegiano del conte Baldesar Castiglione.		Castiglione, Baldassarre.
187	198,765	GBP 1,500.00 - 2,500.00		The Story of the Sultan and Imperial Leather, c.1968-9		Freddie Mercury
191	194,985	EUR 15,000.00 - 20,000.00		Les Roses.		Redoute, Pierre-Joseph et Claude-Antoine Thory
192	194,332	GBP 120,000.00 - 180,000.00		Manuscript miscellany owned, annotated and signed (with initials) four times by Ralegh		Sir Walter Ralegh
199	190,500	USD 140,000.00 - 200,000.00		Petri Bembi de Aetna ad Angelum Chabrielem liber		Bembo, Pietro.
200	190,500	USD 80,000.00 - 120,000.00		Original mock-up of Madeline.		Bemelmans, Ludwig
201	190,500	USD 150,000.00 - 250,000.00		The Viviparous Quadrupeds of North America.		Audubon, John James
217	177,800	USD 100,000.00 - 150,000.00		Printed broadside signed ("John Hancock") as a Selectman of Boston, denouncing taxes "imposed upon the People, without their Consent"		Hancock, John
218	177,800	USD 180,000.00 - 250,000.00		United States Constitution		United States Constitution
228	174,465	GBP 30,000.00 - 50,000.00		Autograph manuscripts lyrics of songs for the album Queen II, c.1973		Freddie Mercury
244	167,130	EUR 80,000.00 - 120,000.00		De Trinitate (livres IV-XV, cum tabula) ; Confessiones (livres I-V).		Augustin, saint (Aurelius Augustinus Hipponensis)
246	165,693	GBP 50,000.00 - 70,000.00		Book of fair copies of 52 letters, mostly unpublished, many in Wesley’s hand		John Wesley–Methodism
248	165,100	USD 100,000.00 - 150,000.00		I called myself Pip, and came to be called Pip.		Dickens, Charles
249	165,100	USD 100,000.00 - 150,000.00		I am no bird; and no net ensnares me...		Bronte, Charlotte
257	161,589	EUR 40,000.00 - 60,000.00		Apocalypsis cù[m] figuris.		Dürer, Albrecht
259	159,824	GBP 100,000.00 - 200,000.00		Queen Elizabeth I—Sir Gilbert Dethick \| 9 illustrated heraldic manuscripts presented to the Queen, 1568-80		Queen Elizabeth I—Sir Gilbert Dethick
260	158,604	GBP 120,000.00 - 180,000.00		Notebook with working lyrics, early 1970s		Freddie Mercury
262	156,038	GBP 70,000.00 - 90,000.00		A history of the birds of Europe, including all the species inhabiting the Western Palaearctic Region.		Henry Eeles Dresser
274	152,400	USD 80,000.00 - 120,000.00		It is a truth universally acknowledged...		[Austen, Jane]
275	152,400	USD 150,000.00 - 200,000.00		L'anthropologia di Galeazzo Capella secretario dell'illustrissimo signor duca di Milano		Capella, Galeazzo Flavio
294	145,749	GBP 20,000.00 - 30,000.00		A map of the British and French dominions in North America, with the roads, distances, limits and extent of the settlements.		John Mitchell
309	142,744	GBP 12,000.00 - 18,000.00		Notebook containing autograph manuscript lyrics of songs for The Miracle, 1988-89		Freddie Mercury
315	138,269	EUR 100,000.00 - 150,000.00		Histoire de la peinture en Italie.
316	138,269	EUR 100,000.00 - 150,000.00		Copie autographe de sa correspondance croisée, et de celle de sa fille, avec Mme de Sévigné, Mme de Grignan et quelques-uns de leurs amis.		Bussy-Rabutin, Roger de
328	132,555	GBP 15,000.00 - 20,000.00		Sacrae Scripturae veteris, novaeque omnia.
329	132,311	EUR 50,000.00 - 70,000.00		Rituel de l'abbaye royale de S. Germain des Prez les Paris, Contenant les prieres & ceremonies a faire lorsque les Religieux de la de Abbaye portent les Reliques de la glorieuse Vierge & Martyre S. Marguerite aux Reynes & Princesses du sang.		Jarry, Nicolas (attribue a) - Nicolas Robert
344	127,000	USD 100,000.00 - 150,000.00		Autograph document signed ("Th: Jefferson") as third President, to the New Jersey legislature		Jefferson, Thomas
345	127,000	USD 150,000.00 - 200,000.00		Florilegium diversorum epigrammatum in septem libros. [Device]		Anthologia Graeca.
346	127,000	USD 150,000.00 - 200,000.00		Autograph manuscript signed ("A. Lincoln"), being Lincoln's official transcript of the "Subscription Book forthe Capital Stock of the Alton and Sangamon Rail Road Company,"		Lincoln, Abraham
367	121,458	GBP 60,000.00 - 80,000.00		The Lord of the Rings.		J.R.R. Tolkien
384	118,953	GBP 20,000.00 - 30,000.00		Autograph manuscript lyrics for songs on the album A Day at the Races, 1976		Freddie Mercury
395	114,300	USD 80,000.00 - 100,000.00		Hypnerotomachia Poliphili, ubi humana omnia non nisisomnium esse docet atque obiter plurima scitu sane quam digna commemorat		Colonna, Francesco.
402	113,400	USD 90,000.00 - 120,000.00		Gardner's Photographic Sketch Book of the War.		[Alexander Gardner, et al]
412	111,610	GBP 70,000.00 - 100,000.00		The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (B. 64; M., Holl. 167)		Albrecht Durer
415	111,023	GBP 5,000.00 - 7,000.00		A significant archive of c. 265 photographs, mainly 1980s		Freddie Mercury
418	109,227	GBP 70,000.00 - 90,000.00		The natural history of Carolina, Florida and the Bahama Islands.		Mark Catesby
440	105,263	GBP 10,000.00 - 15,000.00		The Hobbit or There and Back Again. Boston and New York		J.R.R. Tolkien
444	104,456	EUR 30,000.00 - 50,000.00		Voyage pittoresque de la Grece.		[Choiseul-Gouffier, Marie Gabriel, comte de]
447	103,093	GBP 50,000.00 - 70,000.00		Autograph manuscript lyrics of songs for the album Jazz, c.1978		Freddie Mercury
451	101,600	USD 70,000.00 - 100,000.00		A Monograph of the Trochilidae, or Family of Humming-Birds.		Gould, John
452	101,600	USD 80,000.00 - 100,000.00		Autograph manuscript, being George Washington's diary entries for a portion of March 1762		Washington, George
453	100,993	EUR 35,000.00 - 55,000.00		La Rivière enchantée.		Foujita, Tsugouharu Léonard ? René Héron de Villefosse
470	96,788	EUR 60,000.00 - 80,000.00		Erotemata. Alphabetum graecum cum multiplicibus litteris. Oratio dominica. Ave Maria. Symbolum Apostolum. Evangelium Johannis. Pythagoras, Aurea verba. Pseudo- Phocylides, Sententiae sive Moralia [en grec et en latin].		Lascaris, Constantinos
471	96,733	GBP 70,000.00 - 100,000.00		A monograph of the trochilidae, or humming-birds [with supplement].		John Gould
479	95,250	USD 35,000.00 - 50,000.00		The only surviving portion of the autograph manuscript of the Sherlock Holmes story, "The Adventure of the Crooked Man"		Doyle, Arthur Conan, Sir
480	95,163	GBP 30,000.00 - 50,000.00		Autograph manuscript lyrics of songs for the album Queen I, c.1971-72		Freddie Mercury
481	95,163	GBP 40,000.00 - 60,000.00		Autograph working lyrics to 'Good Old-Fashioned Lover Boy', c.1976		Freddie Mercury
498	93,623	GBP 60,000.00 - 80,000.00		Highly important collection of autograph manuscript working papers, CONSTITUTING THE GREATER PART OF HIS WRITINGS ON CHINESE ASTRONOMY AND INCLUDING MANY OF HIS MOST FAMOUS WORKS AS WELL AS MUCH OF HIS CORRESPONDENCE FROM CHINA, in 12 volumes		Father Antoine Gaubil

	62,480,580