Rare Book Hub Publisher Bruce McKinney Talks Auctions, Dealers, Collecting and the State of the Market

San Francisco based Bruce McKinney, 77, is the founder of RareBookHub.com. At RBH, subscribers can access over 13.5 million searchable auction and other transactions updated several times weekly. The site also publishes a free monthly selection of articles on different aspects of the antiquarian book trade. Originally named Americana Exchange, he founded the site in 2002; it has continued to slowly grow and evolve over the last decade to become a valuable resource for dealers, auction houses, librarians, collectors, and appraisers.

“It was never about the money,” McKinney said. The site is a natural outcome of his “strong collecting instinct and a desire to confirm rarity and value to justify spending significant money.” He noted that he bought his first collectible books “when I was ten."

"Early on I found that valuation information was necessary but often hard to come by. Howes USiana, for Americana for the 10,000 titles listed, was a God-send during the 1950’s. You had to check for the occasional needle in the haystack. It was great fun."

By the 1990’s listing sites exploded on the Internet. It turned out there were lots of books to sell. "Their prices," he said, "were being put up with no reference as to how long the listing was posted. This simply confirmed that the listing sites’ primary clients were the sellers, not the buyers. I wanted to know fair value. Asking prices weren’t always logical. I wanted clarity."

McKinney's own approach to meaningful data has been straightforward from the beginning: "My first goal when I started this project was to build a bridge to the future of collecting.” American Book Prices Current had long been the gold standard for rare book auction valuation. But by 2002, their methodology was dated. Their model was based on releasing annual printed volumes and rarely covered more than 22,000 lots because of space constraints. When necessary, they trimmed the listings. And if a lot went unsold they omitted it. At the same time, auction prices were rising, and more information was needed and justified.

"I was determined to provide that service. I wanted to bring clarity to the field, by putting my faith in real numbers, tied to complete descriptions. Nothing would be left out."

"In time, auctions became more important and our database of auctioned lots became very large. Now, with one click, you can understand within a second how a single item has fit into the market over the past century by comparing 13.5 million records. It both provides clarity and confidence to buy or bid.

"Also," he pointed out, "most collectors eventually thin their holdings. Typically," McKinney said, "they become friendly with and reliant on specialty book dealers. They know what they paid them over the years. But when the time comes to sell, they often reach out to the dealer[s] they bought from to ask if they would like to buy them back? The common answer is 'No,' or if not, the offers are kind of low."

According to McKinney, "This is no one’s fault. While rare books are considered a healthy field, individual items do not experience a common reality, the best and rarest go higher and the common and worn go lower. The knowledgeable have often sold their second best copies while holding onto their better examples because their values are rising.

"Today, for the non-professional, it’s increasingly easy to grasp how the market sees the difference. If you bought second best copies, there are going to be many 'come to Jesus meetings' as collectors and their families understand that value relates to the copy as opposed to the title.

"In time, collectors will have to find someone to help them sell, trade or gift their material. It's complex. Both dealers and auction houses are overwhelmed with good material. It makes them increasingly selective.

"So long as the pace of deaccessions remains steady, the market should remain stable.

However," McKinney said, "while libraries have been the dominant force moving prices higher since the end of World War II, they have noticeably narrowed their collecting ambitions during the past five years. Should they begin to seriously deaccession less important or less relevant collections, it would keep the market on edge.

"Consider this. Collectible paper has seen their total sales at auction reach a billion dollars twice in 2021 and 2022. To do that, it has taken roughly 650,000 lots per year. Should any single serious collecting institution decide to sell a significant portion of their holdings, that could easily push the annual level of lots north of a million. It wouldn’t damage the hyper-premium material but second best copies will suffer.

"These days with a seemingly unlimited flow of good material, auction houses are moving toward selling on an unreserved basis, and that causes a lot of anxiety. This is especially true when you’re talking about the $500,000 book, not the more common $10,000 one. The house feels you’ll do better 'unreserved,' but, can you handle the anxiety?” As an aside he mentioned that his own several large and profitable prior auctions “were unreserved.”

Currently McKinney thinks that auctions are “the most profitable segment of the antiquarian trade.” He said he used data available on RBH charts to review volume, mean prices, and lots to conclude that as a class “all of them are doing extremely well.” He reiterated that one reason for that is “that there’s a huge volume of stuff coming to market. People are getting old, their kids don’t want it. There is increasing awareness of the ways to sell complex holdings, as well as “there’s real money in this stuff.”

Even though McKinney closely tracks the auction scene, he is the first to say, “It’s not the only option. Some material is better handled by dealers," adding that “our members, our clients, a solid 30 percent, prefer dealers. Dealers,” he said, “have a keen focus, they don’t buy random stuff.”

McKinney acknowledged he hasn’t always been the most popular person in the book trade, identifying himself as “a burr under ABAA saddle.” One reason for that is “I do not accept the way the book business has been done. To join the various bookselling associations “you have to play ball in their system. They’re not dishonest, but it advantages the dealer, and leaves the collector at a disadvantage.”

For example, he pointed out, there are some dealers who attend association book fairs primarily because it gives them the opportunity to see what others have brought and make deals before the event is open to the public. He termed this common practice “incestuous.”

“As a collector it’s a real problem. The dealers all have that shared advantage, they know what their clientele wants,” he said, implying that the best material gets scooped up and marked up and set aside before the show even opens.

While most clients realize that dealers acquire inventory in a variety of ways and like any business add a markup, he has concluded, the increases are, "in some cases excessive." And this time he isn’t just talking about books, “It’s about the whole range — antiques, all forms, paintings, baseball cards, comics, all of it."

Even though there haven’t been many overt confrontations, he is aware that there are some who don’t care for his approach and feel it undercuts their business.

His own philosophy is,“I try to occupy a middle place, to deliver reliable information and encourage book collecting. RBH tries to be neutral between auctions and dealers, but,” he observed, “the market has leaned into auctions. We know that because we keep meticulous records. Before 2000 there wasn't much clarity. That’s all changed, now you can follow it day by day.”

"Rare Book Hub has grown and we are serving multiple audiences. Our free publication Rare Book Monthly has a mailing list approaching 20,000. Our frequent direct auction updates reach more than 11,000 inboxes. It is probably our single most important feature - because that is the pulse of the field. It covers everything that has happened in the last seven days. No guessing, stone cold reality, it’s given collectors confidence, to be able to say, 'I understand what it’s really worth.'”

As for paid members/subscribers, he estimates that they number roughly 2,000; but it’s hard to get a firm number, because he guesstimates every subscription is likely used by multiple people. He warns those who take advantage of the site’s flexibility, “I can be a very dangerous person. I throw people off the site. I block them.” He suggests that those who want to use the base for a specific project or limited time can buy a nominally priced guest access.

Currently RBH continues to add thousands of records to its site weekly. It’s in the last stage of a major software update. As of the end of 2023 it employs 16 staffers; of these, several devote full time to the site’s software needs.

Revenues continue to rise from individual and institutional subscribers and additional income is generated by advertising. "We charge a lot," McKinney said, "so many of our clients were slow to try it, but once they do they seldom quit."

As for the future, he said that his next venture will be trying to help people dispose of their holdings and predicted, “This could turn into a much bigger business than we’ve ever had.”

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Rare Book Hub Publisher Bruce McKinney Talks Auctions, Dealers, Collecting and the State of the Market

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