• Jeschke Jádi
    Rare Book Auction 155
    Saturday April 26, 2025
    Jeschke Jádi, Apr. 26: Lot 962. Baird. United States Exploring Expedition. Philadelphia 1858.
    Jeschke Jádi, Apr. 26: Lot 772. Edith Holland Norton. Brazilian Flowers. Coombe Croft 1893.
    Jeschke Jádi, Apr. 26: Lot 49. Petrarca. Das Gluecksbuch, Augsburg 1536.
    Jeschke Jádi
    Rare Book Auction 155
    Saturday April 26, 2025
    Jeschke Jádi, Apr. 26: Lot 1496. Jacob / Picasso. Chronique des Temps, 1956.
    Jeschke Jádi, Apr. 26: Lot 8. Augustinus. De moribus ecclesie. Cologne 1480.
    Jeschke Jádi, Apr. 26: Lot 17. Heures a lusaige de Noyon. Paris 1504.
    Jeschke Jádi
    Rare Book Auction 155
    Saturday April 26, 2025
    Jeschke Jádi, Apr. 26: Lot 13. Schedel. Buch der Chronicken. Nürnberg 1493.
    Jeschke Jádi, Apr. 26: Lot 957. Donovan. Insects of China. London 1798.
    Jeschke Jádi, Apr. 26: Lot 123. A holy martyr. Tuscany, Florence, mid-14th century.
    Jeschke Jádi
    Rare Book Auction 155
    Saturday April 26, 2025
    Jeschke Jádi, Apr. 26: Lot 438. Dante. La Divine Comédie. Paris 1963.
    Jeschke Jádi, Apr. 26: Lot 602. Firdausi. Histoire de Minoutchehr. Paris 1919
    Jeschke Jádi, Apr. 26: Lot 994. Westwood. Oriental Entomology. London 1848.
  • Swann, Apr. 22: Lot 124: Henri Courvoisier-Voisin, et alia, [Recueil de Vues de Paris et ses Environs], depicting precursors of the modern roller coaster, Paris, [1814-1819?]. $2,000 to $3,000.
    Swann, Apr. 22: Lot 148: Pablo Picasso & Fernando de Rojas, La Célestine, First Edition, Paris, 1971. $30,000 to $40,000.
    Swann, Apr. 22: Lot 201: Omar Khayyam & Edward Fitzgerald, Rubaiyat, William Bell Scott's copy of the First Edition, London, 1859. $20,000 to $30,000.
    Swann, Apr. 22: Lot 223: Charles Dickens, Great Expectations, First Edition, extra-illustrated with hand-colored plates by Palinthorpe, London, 1861. $7,000 to $9,000.
    Swann, Apr. 22: Lot 248: L. Frank Baum, The Wonderful Wizard of Oz, First Edition, inscribed by the illustrator, Chicago & New York, 1900. $20,000 to $30,000.
    Swann, Apr. 22: Lot 305: Tycho Brahe & Pierre Gassendi, Tychonis Brahei Vita, Paris, 1654. From the Collection of Owen Gingerich. $8,000 to $12,000.
    Swann, Apr. 22: Lot 338: Giovanni Battista Riccioli, Almagestum Novum, two folio volumes, Bologna, 1651. From the Collection of Owen Gingerich. $8,000 to $10,000.
    Swann, Apr. 22: Lot 350: Tobias Cohn, Ma'aseh Toviyyah, first edition, Venice, 1707-8. $3,000 to $5,000.
    Swann, Apr. 22: Lot 359: Alan Turing, Computing, Machinery, and Intelligence, first edition, Edinburgh, 1950. $3,000 to $5,000.
  • Sotheby's
    Sell Your Fine Books & Manuscripts
    Sotheby’s: The Shem Tov Bible, 1312 | A Masterpiece from the Golden Age of Spain. Sold: 6,960,000 USD
    Sotheby’s: Ten Commandments Tablet, 300-800 CE | One of humanity's earliest and most enduring moral codes. Sold: 5,040,000 USD
    Sotheby’s: William Blake | Songs of Innocence and of Experience. Sold: 4,320,000 USD
    Sotheby’s: The Declaration of Independence | The Holt printing, the only copy in private hands. Sold: 3,360,000 USD
    Sotheby's
    Sell Your Fine Books & Manuscripts
    Sotheby’s: Thomas Taylor | The original cover art for Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone. Sold: 1,920,000 USD
    Sotheby’s: Machiavelli | Il Principe, a previously unrecorded copy of the book where modern political thought began. Sold: 576,000 GBP
    Sotheby’s: Leonardo da Vinci | Trattato della pittura, ca. 1639, a very fine pre-publication manuscript. Sold: 381,000 GBP
    Sotheby’s: Henri Matisse | Jazz, Paris 1947, the complete portfolio. Sold: 312,000 EUR
  • Rose City Book & Paper Fair
    June 14-15, 2025
    1000 NE Multnomah, Portland
    ROSECITYBOOKFAIR.COM

Rare Book Monthly

Articles - February - 2022 Issue

AFTER 2021: Structural Change in the Auction Industry?

Spencer Stuart

Spencer Stuart

What’s Happening?

The dust has settled on 2021, the sale of 521,461 lots from 636,853 resulting in a sell thru rate of 81.8%, about 1,000 over the estimate projected in my article from October of 2021.

 

So, what can we glean from this? Can we indicate that there are structural changes taking place in the Auction Industry?

 

Looking more closely at the results of last year and relating them to previous years to determine trends, specific numbers increased while others stayed constant allowing us the ability to identify what is taking place and what are the ramifications of these changes for Auction Houses, Dealers and the Collecting Community.

 

1. The Number of Auction Houses

According to the Rare Book Hub directory, the number of auction houses is growing at a significant rate, 2012 to 2017 saw an increase of 42%, with an additional increase of 21% between 2017 and 2021. The net result over the period is the addition of 77 auction houses, a growth of 71%.

 

YEAR

# AUCTION HOUSES

# AUCTIONS

SELL THRU RATE

LOTS SOLD PER EVENT

2021

184

2319

521,461 (82%)

226

2017

152

1366

312,154 (75%)

228

2012

107

945

221,248 (71%)

234

 

2. The Number of Auction Events

Following the above table, the increase in the number of auction events is a major driver in the structural change that fueled last year’s continued increase in lots sold. From 2012 to 2017, the number of auction events grew at the same rate as the rate at which new auction houses entered the Industry (44%). 2017 to 2021 saw the number of auction events go supersonic, growing at 3x the rate at which new auction houses (70%) entered the Industry. Important in these developments is across the period 2012 to 2021, the average number of auction events per auction house also increased from 9 to 12 (33%).

 

3. The Number of Lots Sold

Concurrent with the increase of auction events, the ‘Sell Through Rate’ grew. Between 2012-2017, there was a 41% increase in lots sold, swelling to a 67% increase between 2017 to 2021. During this period of 2012 to 2021, lots sold per auction ranged between 225 and 235, remaining relatively constant.

 

What does this tell us about the growth in total lots sold that we are witnessing? It tells us that the supply of auction events drove the number of total lots sold. This growth is not driven by demand, it is definitely driven on the supply side, by the strategies of the largest auction houses.

 

Reviewing these preliminary numbers, one might see a connection between net new auction houses and the increase in auction events. However, further examination of the numbers over the 2012-2021 period indicates the opposite is taking place.

 

Who is Making this Happen? (Three Firm Concentration Ratio)

The economic nature of auction events makes the auction business a high fixed cost industry. The key to remaining profitable is throughput: lots of events where each event has a high amount of lots and that require the same amount of processing time in order to reduce cost per unit and cost per event.

 

The chart below provides data on the Three Firm Concentration Ratio (The Ratio) calculable from the Rare Book Hub data.  The Ratio is the combined market share of the three largest firms in the industry expressed as a percentage. The Ratio is often used by industry analysts to indicate the form or structure of a market in respect of competition (i.e. whether it takes the form of monopolistic competition, oligopoly, or monopoly). A concentration ratio of over 40%, for example, is usually held to indicate an oligopoly.  For three reasons The Ratio is an important metric to look at:

 

The degree of competition

If for example The Ratio rises from 20% to 40% to 60%, this is an indication of a fall in competitive pressures. It could lead to higher fees by auction houses leading to higher prices for collectors.

 

Indicate monopoly power

In the UK, the legal definition of a monopoly is a firm with more than 25% market share. Any firm over this threshold has an important market position.

 

Regulatory oversight

If there is a Three Firm Concentration Ratio of over 70-80%, then there is greater scope for collusion and abuse of monopoly power. In this kind of industry, the government may need to use a regulator to check monopoly power isn’t being abused. For example, the government often has a regulators for markets dominated by a few large firms.

 

As you can see from the chart, the Three Firm Concentration Ration when measured by auction events has gone from 16% in 2012 to 34% in 2021.  When measured by ‘Lots Sold at Auction’, The Ratio goes from 19% to 32% to 46%. This is a more than a two-fold increase in the period, not quite monopoly range but a long way from the structure of the industry in 2012.

 

The table also reveals that the three largest firms run different types of auctions than the average auction house in the data set.  In 2012, the average auction run by the ‘big three” had 14% more items in it than the industry average.  By 2021 the average auction run by the “big three” had 36% more items than the industry average auction.  In 2017, the average auction run by the ‘big three” had a whopping 77% more items in it than the industry average.

The growth during the period of 2012-2017 was generated by a decrease in the price point of items being consigned and the development of infrastructure in all facets of the click-and-mortar auction process (marketing, sales, logistics). The following four years (2017-2021) saw the price point continuing to drop and the number of events increase considerably.

 

Important to last year’s conversation is the appearance of Catawiki, factoring them out of 2021, the share numbers based on auction events would resemble something similar to that of 2017 and 2012. Catawiki’s origin as a born-digital platform, that they are EU based and that they are fueled by a venture capital has them bear the hallmarks of an industry disruptor and will likely continue to have an impact on the Industry as well as provide a model for those intending to participate in the Auction Market in future.

 

Implications

Industries in the process of consolidation are expensive to enter because growth eventually slows. Barriers to industry entry tend to get higher over time, unless a dealer or auction house has a clear strategy and angle as well as appropriate financial resources.

 

For Auction Houses

If you are not big enough to fuel an increase in events to increase throughput, then you need to specialize and determine your operations true minimum economic scale in terms of auction event cost and auction event yield. Within this model, you need to be strategic and, moving forward, not be afraid to cancel auction events. At the same time, client retention and acquisition need to be made a priority. With the saturation of events, there needs to be a shift in focus from event marketing (“this is the date”) to content marketing (“why is this auction relevant to your collection”).

 

For Dealers

Much of the necessary considerations for Dealers in 2022 and onward were outlined in my article from last year, “Where are we going from here?: Dealers & the Online Era” and remain relevant in relation to the market data presented in this article.

 

The pressures applied on the Trade with regards to how value is generated for offerings will increase as more information is logged from auction events with publicly listed results. In light of this shift in the Collector communities’ expectations two options must be considered and both require clear strategy prior to execution. The first is to participate in an online environment that communicates how value is derived (either by adopting an auction platform or at least logging successful sold inventory) or partnering with an auction platform.

 

Partnership will likely increase in the coming years as auction houses hosting an above average level of annual auction events will start to outstrip conventional consignment models and will require reliable, committed material to maintain their presence. It is this relentless requirement for new supply that presents opportunities for Dealers with backlog or considering retirement.

 

If a Dealer decides to remain in a conventional Trade model, then maintaining one’s legitimacy within a given collecting field with both one’s existing client but also a larger public will be crucial. At the bare minimum, data driven understanding of the 20% of one’s customer base that accounts for 80% of the business’s revenue over the last 3-5 years are “tables stakes” for survival.

 

For Collectors

The increase of events with more offerings brings with its opportunities, as well as the possibility for mistakes, for Collectors. Entering 2022 and onward, a collecting strategy will become more important, maybe crucial. A holistic understanding of the global industry structure both of Auctions and the Trade will be key to cost effectively sourcing material to shape your collection. In a market that is delivering increasing supply levels to collectors, one must have a sound foundation from which to say, ‘no’ to material in order to spend valuable time considering potential prospects.

 

 

YEAR

AUCTION HOUSES

EVENTS

 

LOTS

 

306 lots per auction event

(L/AE)

 

Avg = 225

2021

Heritage

429

 

} 790

215,184

 

} 242,196

 

Catawiki

309

17,004

 

Trillium

52

10,008

 

TOTAL

2,319

34%

521,461

46%

 

2017

Heritage

159

 

} 247

92,718

 

} 99,979

 

404 L/AE

 

Avg = 228

 

Brun Rasmussen

57

3,857

 

Sotheby’s

31

3,404

 

TOTAL

1,366

18%

312,154

32%

 

2012

Heritage

72

 

} 156

27,662

 

} 41,529

 

266 L/AE

 

Avg = 234

 

Bloomsbury

47

11,375

 

Brun Ramussen

37

2,492

 

TOTAL

945

16%

221,248

19%


Posted On: 2022-02-01 15:30
User Name: bjarnetokerud

Has book collecting become exclusively Follow The Money?


Posted On: 2022-02-02 03:17
User Name: jbsalomon

These figures are interesting, but it would also be very useful to provide information on the total dollar/euro/pound etc sales of the leading auction houses.. Perhaps by that measure, the top three would be different.


Posted On: 2022-02-02 20:54
User Name: jkoblitz

While I don't doubt the general trend, I do have a problem looking at the top three in your statistics. Heritage may very well be the leader, but I wouldn't place Catawiki in the category "auction house", unless you also include eBay. Although Catawiki employs auction experts, I think it's more of a marketplace like eBay. Auction goods are not physically consigned, inspected and evaluated by experts. A comparison with Trillium Auctions is also problematic, since - as I see it - an important part of their concept is the sale of single sheets, often consisting of former plate books that have been broken apart.


Rare Book Monthly

  • University Archives
    Rare Autographs, Books & Photos; Abraham Lincoln Collection
    April 23, 2025
    University Archives, Apr. 23: Best Image of Abraham Lincoln: "Closest… to ‘seeing' Lincoln… A National Treasure" Original Hesler/Ayres Interpositive. $800,000 to $1,000,000.
    University Archives, Apr. 23: Einstein, 3pp of Unified Field Theory Equations: “I want to try to show that a truly natural choice for field equations exists.” Formalizing His Final Approach, Association to Theory of Relativity. $80,000 to $120,000.
    University Archives, Apr. 23: Marilyn Monroe's Best Personally Owned & Annotated Script for Unfinished Last Film, "Something's Got to Give" (1962). $75,000 to $100,000.
    University Archives
    Rare Autographs, Books & Photos; Abraham Lincoln Collection
    April 23, 2025
    University Archives, Apr. 23: David Ben-Gurion ALS: "The Jewish people have attained the epitome...the State of Israel is born," 1 Day After Signing Israeli Declaration of Independence, Best Ben-Gurion Ever! $80,000 to $100,000.
    University Archives, Apr. 23: Lincoln ALS to Youth: "A young man, before the enemy has learned to watch him...votes... shall redeem the county" Evocative of Famous "Work" Letter. $70,000 to $100,000.
    University Archives, Apr. 23: Lincoln Appointment for Cabinet Member With Largest, Boldest, Full Signature! Important Content: Detente with England. $10,000 to $15,000.
    University Archives
    Rare Autographs, Books & Photos; Abraham Lincoln Collection
    April 23, 2025
    University Archives, Apr. 23: Abraham Lincoln Rare Signed Check To Law Partner W.H. Herndon, Perhaps Unique as Such! $20,000 to $25,000
    University Archives, Apr. 23: Tokyo War Crimes Files of Prosecuting Attorney For POW Camp Atrocities, 500+ Pages, Unpublished Court Documents, Photos and More. $25,000 to $35,000.
    University Archives, Apr. 23: 1698 South Carolina Slavery Archive Huguenot Planters Earliest Rare Plat Maps for Plantations 41 Docs 107 pp. Most Colonial. $25,000 to $35,000.
    University Archives
    Rare Autographs, Books & Photos; Abraham Lincoln Collection
    April 23, 2025
    University Archives, Apr. 23: Adam Smith ALS While Revising “The Wealth of Nations” - A New Discovery Documenting Meeting with Influential Editor. $18,000 to $24,000.
    University Archives, Apr. 23: Margaret Mitchell Rare ALS to Her Editor as Epic Film "Gone With the Wind" Gains Heat "Forgive this scrawl. I haven't written a letter in long hand in years and I've almost forgotten how it's done." $3,000 to $4,000.
    University Archives, Apr. 23: Einstein 1935 TLS, Hopes to Warn Non-Jews of "The true nature of the Hitler regime.” $8,500 to $10,000.
  • Gros & Delettrez, Apr. 23: BELLEFOREST (François de). La cosmographie universelle de tout le monde. €12,000 to €15,000.
    Gros & Delettrez, Apr. 23: DESNOS (Louis Charles). Mappe-monde, ou Carte Generale de la Terre. €5,000 to €6,000.
    Gros & Delettrez, Apr. 23: BLAEU (Willem Janszoon & Joan). Theatrum Sabaudiae. €18,000 to €20,000.
    Gros & Delettrez, Apr. 23: LINASSI. Ferdinando Ie Maria Anna Carolina nel Litorale in Settembre 1844. €4,000 to €5,000.
    Gros & Delettrez, Apr. 23: AMBROSOLI (Francesco). Monumento a Francesco Primo in Vienna. €3,000 to €4,000.
    Gros & Delettrez, Apr. 23: Plano de la plaza de Mesina y de su ciudadel y castiglios. €5,000 to €6,000.
    Gros & Delettrez, Apr. 23: ROCKSTUHL (Alois Gustav), GILLE (Florent A.). 78 Lithographies du Musée de Tzarskoe-Selo. €1,000 to €1,500.
    Gros & Delettrez, Apr. 23: Chtchedrovski, Ignatiy Stepanovitch. €2,000 to €3,000.
    Gros & Delettrez, Apr. 23: DE BRUYN (Cornelis). Voyage au Levant. €3,000 to €5,000.
    Gros & Delettrez, Apr. 23: ABI ISHAQ AHMAD B. IBRAHIM AL-THAʿLABI (M. 1035) : TROISIÈME VOLUME DU KASHF WA-L-BAYAN ʻAN TAFSIRI AL-QURʼAN. €3,000 to €5,000.
    Gros & Delettrez, Apr. 23: DESNOS (Louis Charles). L’Afrique. €3,000 to €4,000.
    Gros & Delettrez, Apr. 23: DE BRUYN (Cornelis). Voyages de Corneille Le Brun par la Moscovie, en Perse, et aux Indes orientales. €1,500 to €2,000.
    Gros & Delettrez, Apr. 23: DESNOS. (Louis Charles). Amérique septentrionale et Méridionale. €4,000 to €5,000.
    Gros & Delettrez, Apr. 23: ÉLIOT (J.B.) ; MONDHARE (Louis Joseph). Carte du théatre de la guerre actuel entre les anglais et les treize Colonies Unies de l'Amérique Septentrionale. €5,000 to €6,000.
  • Old World Auctions (April 23):
    Lot 748. Second volume of Blaeu's atlas featuring 89 maps of the Americas and Asia (1642) Est. $12,000 - $15,000
    Old World Auctions (April 23):
    Lot 12. A world map with popular cartographic myths and unique embellishments (1788) Est. $3,000 - $3,750
    Old World Auctions (April 23):
    Lot 30. One of the most sought-after charts from Cellarius' work (1708) Est. $1,200 - $1,500
    Old World Auctions (April 23):
    Lot 38. Anti-Vietnam War persuasive cartography on a velvet poster (1971) Est. $350 - $425
    Old World Auctions (April 23):
    Lot 43. Ortelius' influential map of the New World - second plate (1584) Est. $4,750 - $6,000
    Old World Auctions (April 23):
    Lot 95. Scarce German map illustrating the French & Indian War (1755) Est. $8,000 - $9,500
    Old World Auctions (April 23):
    Lot 149. Bachmann's dramatic view of the Mid-Atlantic region (1864) Est. $1,200 - $1,500
    Old World Auctions (April 23):
    Lot 373. De Jode's very rare map of Europe with costumed figures (1593) Est. $6,000 - $7,500
    Old World Auctions (April 23):
    Lot 674. De Bry's Petits Voyages, Part VII with all plates and map of Sri Lanka (1606) Est. $1,400 - $1,700
    Old World Auctions (April 23):
    Lot 704. The first printed map devoted to the Pacific in full contemporary color (1589) Est. $7,500 - $9,000
    Old World Auctions (April 23):
    Lot 734. Superb hand-colored image of the Tree of Jesse (1502) Est. $700 - $850

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