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Articles - January - 2022 Issue

Living Dangerously in the Year Ahead

- by Bruce E. McKinney

The future is up in the air

The future is up in the air

While I’m managing Partner of Rare Book Hub, the other hat I wear is as a private money manager, building and diversifying our family assets.  I’ve had a good record, year over year my number has run at and above 30%.  For 2021, our traded assets increased in value by 46.4%.  I’m writing about this as I’ve been a keen and effective observer for the past 30 years and am expecting the net change this year to be +7%, a much smaller increase than we’ve seen in the past 5 years.  Irrational exuberance doesn’t last.

 

Stock market investors have been having a free ride while the Federal Reserve [the Fed] has kept interest rates unnaturally low and the outcome of such a policy eventually creates inflation.  The financial system is rigged to hide it, suggesting low comforting rates that encourage the stock market higher.  But increasingly inflation can no longer be hidden by happy talk.  Whether you are buying a quart of milk, a gallon of gas, a new or used car, or a professional baseball or football ticket you’re experiencing solid 20% inflation and it’s going to go on and on.

 

So the Fed, now accepting they can no longer hide inflation, call it temporary.  And there is another explanation; it’s baloney.  Inflation like sex, is very hard to stamp out.

 

Between January 1st and December 31st inflation will set the table.  Unfortunately, there will also be the proverbial drunk at the table, the open Republican efforts to suppress and marginalize Democratic voters in the November election, their purpose to take control of the House and Senate after which American democracy will end.

 

Cutting to the chase, while inflation was been the high risk for the Fed and while they have done exceptionally well managing it, costs are starting to run away as the Trump-Putin partnership openly subverts American democracy with the stated intent to elect Trump white nationalists.

 

America’s strength has long been its enduring capacity to accept human differences.  Skills and ability, poverty, disability, race, religion, and sexual orientation have long been excuses to exclude.  In America we must stand for equal human possibility.

 

But even as we are close to losing democracy it’s not clear Americans care enough to fight to keep it, perhaps thinking it’s not their fight.  What are they in the sea of huge money, social media and local pressure?  What are we?  We are Americans, the last best hope of the world.  If we fail, democracy fails for the world.

 

One way or the other, investing in America in 2022 is going to be difficult.  Prosperous and free economies are dependent on democratic societies.  Take away democracy you’ll have Russian “prosperity.”

 

It’s going to be a tough year.

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Posted On: 2022-01-01 04:27
User Name: lthing

Thank you, Bruce! "The last, best hope of the world..." I just came from watching "Hamilton" for the first time if we want another reminder that we are all of us always a part of history whether we want to be or not.

- Lowell Thing

Posted On: 2022-01-01 07:18
User Name: psps

No, Bruce McKinney. You Americans are not the last, best hope of the world. You are a deeply dysfunctional people and an example to nobody. Nothing will change for the better in your country until you stop thinking of yourselves as exceptional, take a long hard look in the mirror and start to do something about it. Sorry! I wish it were otherwise. We Europeans would like America to be a force for good. But you aren't. Get used to it!

Posted On: 2022-01-01 13:43
User Name: sumthinu

Unfortunately, a quite unsettling observation of our situation. I have friends that still say Trump could not have lost because he received more votes than any sitting president. Also unfortunate is that the same friends won’t use the same logic with the number of votes the democratic candidate received. A selfish disdain for democracy while waving the American flag and seeking out others to demonize. Wish us luck !

Posted On: 2022-01-01 16:27
User Name: arnet1

“We are Americans, the last best hope of the world.  If we fail, democracy fails for the world.”
mmmm....hubris or disconnect?
The answer is both and lies in the appeals I now receive to sponsor American children living in conditions that differ little from those in the third world, while its most privileged defenders of democracy, like the hub writer, boast of securing year after year 30 percent increases in the family wealth. Can a democracy that does not work for all be a democracy?
It seems to me that the United States lost its way a long time ago.

Posted On: 2022-01-01 23:41
User Name: charlesrobinson127

I fear younhave it right

Posted On: 2022-01-02 00:11
User Name: bukowski

“psps” is a Kremlin troll. Delete his provocative false post.

Posted On: 2022-01-02 20:06
User Name: avocado1

Bruce,

I wonder what the powers that be think is going to happen with inflation, seeing as how M1 has grown five fold over the last couple of years? M1 is what he bottom 90% own.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL

Andy

Posted On: 2022-01-04 04:54
User Name: ezrabook

Thank you so much, Bruce. America as envisioned, realized, perpetuated and long mythologized, is now set on a course of dissolution, and dis-integration -- but historically speaking, this whole scenario might merely be an entirely "organic" move of a great ideal's need to cleanse itself of its own big lies, of which the "stolen" election is but the latest. Pioneers in pointy hats seeking a new land come and conquer the wilderness in the name of "freedom"after wiping out or "relocating" the Native populace, and constructing a magnificent democratic ideal, upon the backs of enslaved Black humans. So the whole shakedown begins, and of necessity, kicking and screaming and doomsaying as we are, our body politic is urged by circumstance, to voluntarily shake down its own assumptions, public and private, to the very roots of our country, community, family and self. Mere band-aid restorations of business as usual will not suffice. We're in deep. Now, at this point, only mass acknowledgement, apologies deep and sincere, and reparations, will open the doors to re-visioning.

"Got a new agenda
With a new dream
I'm kicking out the old regime
Liberation, elevation, education
America, you a lie
But the whole world 'bout to testify
I said, the whole world 'bout to testify
And the tables 'bout to
T-t-tables 'bout to
Turn, turn, turn"
(Janelle Monae in "Turn Table")

As I see it, as a country, it almost seems our devolved version of "The American Dream" HAS to come to the edge, in order for us to individually and collectively remember the core values which inspired and sparked this democratic experiment. With greed and denial as the bottom line justifications for so much insensitivity, extraction-consciousness, ignorance, and myth-gorging, our dear sweet and high-principled country, unique in so many ways, is destined to unwind and unravel before enough people realize what has been lost. So sorry, I'm usually so bushy-tailed, smiling and parade-waving in a universe of hope and good will from, of, and to all men and women. But the great cleanout has begun. Do we have the courage to stand to, and remember, and speak up, at very least to vote and actively protect the rights of others to vote?

Posted On: 2022-01-07 02:48
User Name: brixton1977

This is a truly bizarre post. Skyrocketing inequality is tearing America apart. And here Bruce is, boasting of decades of 30% returns and wondering, why oh why, the country is teetering toward fascism.

Posted On: 2022-01-08 00:52
User Name: bozo1950

I think we’ve spoken on the phone; you were always generous with your time. When I began reading your post I had a gnawing fear it would turn out to be pro-Trump. I’m so so relieved it was anything but - and you’ve put it all very well. On the other hand, I’m a bit in agreement with “psps” below. I wish America were a force for good in the world but that’s been an iffy proposition for a rather long while.

Posted On: 2022-01-31 20:12
User Name: warpstar1

So the only way to save democracy is to have Democrats in charge of congress in perpetuity? I'm afraid that would not be democracy.

Rare Book Monthly

  • Dominic Winter Auctioneers
    Printed Books, Maps & Wisdens, English Bibles
    1500-1800
    22nd July 2026
    Dominic Winter, July 22: Lot 83 – Westall & Owen. Picturesque Tour of the River Thames, 1st edition, 1828. £2,000-3,000.
    Dominic Winter, July 22: Lot 88 – Blume. Rumphia, Botanicae de plantis Indiae Orientalis, 1835-1848. £2,000-3,000.
    Dominic Winter, July 22: Lot 101 – Michaux. Histoire des arbres forestiers de l'Amérique septentrionale, 1810-1812. £700-1,000.
    Dominic Winter Auctioneers
    Printed Books, Maps & Wisdens, English Bibles
    1500-1800
    22nd July 2026
    Dominic Winter, July 22: Lot 102 – Miller & Shaw. Cimelia Physica, 1796 [but c. 1816]. £3,000-5,000.
    Dominic Winter, July 22: Lot 104 – Parkinson. Theatrum Botanicum: The Theater of Plants, London: Thomas Cotes, 1640. £800-1,200.
    Dominic Winter, July 22: Lot 159 – Plancius. Orbis Terrarum..., double hemisphere map, 1594-99. £5,000-8,000.
    Dominic Winter Auctioneers
    Printed Books, Maps & Wisdens, English Bibles
    1500-1800
    22nd July 2026
    Dominic Winter, July 22: Lot 217 – Illuminated Medieval Manuscript. From a Breviary, 14th/15th c. £3,000-4,000.
    Dominic Winter, July 22: Lot 224 – The newe Testament … By Wylliam Tyndall…, 1549. £3,000-5,000.
    Dominic Winter, July 22: Lot 238 – Douay-Rheims Bible. 3 volumes, 1582/1609/1610. £7,000-10,000.
    Dominic Winter Auctioneers
    Printed Books, Maps & Wisdens, English Bibles
    1500-1800
    22nd July 2026
    Dominic Winter, July 22: Lot 336 – Ashendene Press. A Treatyse of Fysshynge with an Angle, 1903. £1,000-1,500.
    Dominic Winter, July 22: Lot 393 – Sassoon. Memoirs of an Infantry Officer, signed limited edition, 1931. £800-1,200.
    Dominic Winter, July 22: Lot 402 – Dylan Thomas. Twenty-Five Poems, 1st edition in d.j., 1936. £400-600.
  • Forum Auctions
    The 10th Anniversary Sale
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    Forum, July 16: Inundation papyrus. P.Michael 4, the ‘Inundation papyrus’, a geographical account of the Nile near Canopus, in Greek, remains of two columns from a manuscript scroll on papyrus, Egypt, second century CE. £12,000-18,000
    Forum, July 16: Book of Hours, use of Sarum, manuscript on vellum, 6 full-page miniatures, with famous Middle English inscriptions, Southern Netherlands for the English market, [c.1430]. £30,000-50,000
    Forum, July 16: Qu'ran, Arabic manuscript on burnished, stencilled, and gold-flecked paper, 447ff., Sultanate Gujarat, Ahmadabad, [after 1411 but no later than 1442]. £15,000-20,000
    Forum Auctions
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    July 16, 2026
    Forum, July 16: Turner (William). A New boke of the natures and properties of all wines that are commonly vsed here in England, rare first edition of the first English book on wine, By William Seres, 1568. £20,000-£30,000
    Forum, July 16: Spenser (Edmund). The Faerie Queene. first edition, Printed [by John Wolfe] for William Ponsonbie, 1590. £30,000-40,000
    Forum, July 16: Shakespeare (William). The Comedie of Errors, extracted from the first folio, Isaac Jaggard and Edward Blount, 1623. £15,000-20,000
    Forum Auctions
    The 10th Anniversary Sale
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    July 16, 2026
    Forum, July 16: Fleming (Ian). Casino Royale, first edition, signed presentation inscription from the author, 1953. £40,000-60,000
    Forum, July 16: d'Agoty (Jacques-Fabien Gautier). Anatomie de la Tête, first edition, Paris, chez le Sieur Gautier, 1748. £10,000-15,000
    Forum, July 16: Martial Arts.- Lee (Bruce). 'Praying Mantis style' Kung Fu book, containing numerous annotations, diagrams and graphs in Bruce Lee's hand, c. 1960. £50,000-70,000
    Forum Auctions
    The 10th Anniversary Sale
    Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works on Paper
    July 16, 2026
    Forum, July 16: Warre (Capt. Henry James). Sketches in North America and the Oregon Territory, first edition, rare hand-coloured issue, 1848. £30,000-40,000
    Forum, July 16: Norie (John William). The Marine Atlas, or Seaman's Complete Pilot for all the principal places in the known world..., 1826. £30,000-50,000
    Forum, July 16: Mao Tse-tung.- Kim Il-sung.-[Note book for visitors from China to Korea], signed by Mao and Kim, [Beijing, 1954]. £10,000-15,000
  • Case Auctions
    2026 Summer Auction
    August 1st and 2nd
    Case Antiques, Aug. 1: Timberlake, Henry: A DRAUGHT OF THE CHEROKEE COUNTRY on the West Side of the Twenty Four Mountains, Commonly Called "Over the Hills". $18,000 to $22,000.
    Case Antiques, Aug. 1: Manuscript orderly book detailing day to day activities of multiple Virginia regiments in the Continental Army during the Revolutionary,1776-1777. $7,000 to $8,000.
    Case Antiques, Aug. 1: Cormac McCarthy, The Orchard Keeper, Random House, New York, 1965. Signed 1st Edition. $3,800 to $4,200.
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    Case Antiques, Aug. 1: Battle of Kings Mountain Pamphlet by Isaac Shelby, April 1823, Signed. $1,800 to $2,200.
    Case Antiques, Aug. 1: Large Tintype CSA Lt. Col. Thomas Coke Johnson, 19th GA, w/ Southern Cross, Book. $1,400 to $1,800.
    Case Antiques, Aug. 1: Rare Civil War Ambrotype, 19th GA Infantry with Johnson Family of GA. $800 to $1,200.
    Case Auctions
    2026 Summer Auction
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    Case Antiques, Aug. 1: A signed note written by Thomas Alva Edison to an unknown recipient, in which he shares his thoughts on Guglielmo Marconi, regarded as the inventor of the radio. $800 to $1,200.
    Case Antiques, Aug. 1: Rare 1931 TN Grasslands Steeplechase Book, Gallatin. $800 to $1,000.
    Case Antiques, Aug. 1: War of 1812 related Broadside, Petersburg Volunteers. $700 to $800.
    Case Antiques, Aug. 1: 2 World War I Posters, “Our Colored Fighters” and “No Slacker”. $800 to $1,000.

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