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Articles - August - 2020 Issue

Money Money Money

- by Bruce E. McKinney

Covid-19 and the turgid economy present a lethal mixture of possibilities that will work themselves out over the next five years.  For book dealers and collectors these issues will present additional challenges because in collectibles liquidity varies negatively with uncertainty.  By the end of the year extraordinary levels of government stimulus will have been absorbed leaving diminishing positive effects after which unmistakable negative effects will take hold:  inflation and a 25% decline of the US dollar relative to a market basket of ascendant world currencies over the next 3-5 years.

 

For the rare book business there are multiple issues to consider:

 

  1. Your debt to equity ratio:  liabilities/assets.
    1. The currency you principally trade in.
  2. The cost of your collection or stock.
  3. The relative strength of your inventory.
    1. Low, middle or high end
  4. The kind of material you have as defined by price category.
  5. Are you prepared to keep your inventory to a fixed percentage of your sales?  This means that if your sales slow you will cut your stock proportionately.
  6. Is the value of your collection significant to your cashflow or net worth?
  7. Your cashflow requirements both short and long term.
  8. How and to whom would you sell?
    1. Wealthy collectors
    2. Middle class collectors
    3. Institutions online or by offer letter
    4. At auction
    5. On eBay

 

It’s always a good idea to have your financial plans updated because the next 5 years will present unusual risks.

 

I will try to help any RBH member who requests advice.

 

Bruce McKinney

bmckinney@rarebookhub.com

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Posted On: 2020-08-26 17:38
User Name: laurelle

Bruce,

I have to question your statement regarding the weakening of the US Dollar. Whose currency will strengthen? The EU is borrowing/printing at the same rate, China has tremendous debts, are you anticipating a turnaround in South America? Jeff Elfont

Posted On: 2020-08-28 18:30
User Name: adminb

Deficit spending is known to stimulate economic activity but if government debt engulfs economies then the outcome is increasing inflation. Prices will rise but the value of currency exchanged will be reduced.

I expect the euro to outperform the dollar while the Yuan will underperform. Gold is a regressive hedge but the best straightforward option I see.

Rare Book Monthly

  • <B><CENTER>Forum Auctions<br>Natural History: The remaining stock of Antiquariaat Junk, 1899-2026<br>25 March 2026</center></b> <b>Forum, Mar. 25:</b> Botany.- Andrews (H.C.) <i>Coloured Engravings of Heaths,</i> 4 vol. in 2, first edition, [1710,--94]-1802-1809-[1830]. £10,000 - £15,000. <b>Forum, Mar. 25:</b> Butterflies.- Cramer (Pierre) and Caspar Stoll. <i>De Uitlandsche Kapellen voorkomende in de drie Waereld-Deelen…,,</i> 5 vol., Amsterdam & Utrecht, 1779-91. £8,000 - £12,000. <b>Forum, Mar. 25:</b> Voyages.- Darwin (Charles) and others. <i>Narrative of the Surveying Voyages of His Majesty's Ships Adventure and Beagle,</i> 3 vol. in 4, including Appendix to vol.2, first edition, 1839. £8,000 - £12,000. <b>Forum, Mar. 25:</b> Butterflies.- de Graaf (Willem Diederik Vincent). <i>[Inlandsche Kapellen in beeld],</i> 170 fine original watercolours, [Enkhuizen], [1800-40]. £8,000 - £12,000. <B><CENTER>Forum Auctions<br>Natural History: The remaining stock of Antiquariaat Junk, 1899-2026<br>25 March 2026</center></b> <b>Forum, Mar. 25:</b> Birds.- Dresser (Henry Eeles). <i>A History of the Birds of Europe,</i> 9 vol., including supplement, first edition, by the author, 1871-96. £6,000 - £8,000. <b>Forum, Mar. 25:</b> Zoology.- Felines.- Elliot (Daniel Giraud). <i>A Monograph of the Felidæ or Family of the Cats,</i> first edition, for the Subscribers, by the Author, [1878]-1883. £25,000 - £30,000. <b>Forum, Mar. 25:</b> Birds.- Frisch (Johann Leonard). <i>Vorstellung der Vögel Deutschlandes,</i> 2 vol., first edition, Berlin, Friedr. Wilhelm Birnsteil, [1736]-1763. £40,000 - £60,000. <b>Forum, Mar. 25:</b> Birds.- Gould (John). <i>The Birds of Great Britain,</i> 5 vol., first edition, by the author, 1862-1873. £30,000 - £40,000. <B><CENTER>Forum Auctions<br>Natural History: The remaining stock of Antiquariaat Junk, 1899-2026<br>25 March 2026</center></b> <b>Forum, Mar. 25:</b> Pomology.- France.- Poiteau (A.) <i>Pomologie Française. Recueil des Plus Beaux Fruits cultivés en France,</i> 4 vol., Paris, 1846. £30,000 - £40,000. <b>Forum, Mar. 25:</b> Botany.- [Robin (Jean)]. <i>Histoire des Plantes, nouvellement trouvées en l'Isle Virgine…,</i>, 1620; with Geoffrey Linocier <i>L'Histoire des plantes,</i> second edition, 1619-20. £3,000 - £4,000. <b>Forum, Mar. 25:</b> Asia.- Japan.- Siebold (P.F. von). <i>Nippon. Archiv zur Beschreibung von Japan,</i> 7 parts in 6 vol., first edition, Leyden, [1832]-1852. £35,000 - £45,000. <b>Forum, Mar. 25:</b> Asia.- Valentijn (Francois). <i>Oud en Nieuw Oost-Indiën...,</i> 5 vol. in 8, first edition, Dordrecht [&] Amsterdam, 1724-26. £8,000 - £12,000. <b>Forum, Mar. 25:</b> Botany.- Australia.- Redouté (P.J.).- Ventenat (Étienne Pierre). <i>Jardin de la Malmaison,</i> 2 vol.,, Paris, 1803-04[-05]. £30,000 - £40,000.
    Forum Auctions
    Natural History: The remaining stock of Antiquariaat Junk, 1899-2026
    25 March 2026
    Forum, Mar. 25: Botany.- Andrews (H.C.) Coloured Engravings of Heaths, 4 vol. in 2, first edition, [1710,--94]-1802-1809-[1830]. £10,000 - £15,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Butterflies.- Cramer (Pierre) and Caspar Stoll. De Uitlandsche Kapellen voorkomende in de drie Waereld-Deelen…,, 5 vol., Amsterdam & Utrecht, 1779-91. £8,000 - £12,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Voyages.- Darwin (Charles) and others. Narrative of the Surveying Voyages of His Majesty's Ships Adventure and Beagle, 3 vol. in 4, including Appendix to vol.2, first edition, 1839. £8,000 - £12,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Butterflies.- de Graaf (Willem Diederik Vincent). [Inlandsche Kapellen in beeld], 170 fine original watercolours, [Enkhuizen], [1800-40]. £8,000 - £12,000.
    Forum Auctions
    Natural History: The remaining stock of Antiquariaat Junk, 1899-2026
    25 March 2026
    Forum, Mar. 25: Birds.- Dresser (Henry Eeles). A History of the Birds of Europe, 9 vol., including supplement, first edition, by the author, 1871-96. £6,000 - £8,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Zoology.- Felines.- Elliot (Daniel Giraud). A Monograph of the Felidæ or Family of the Cats, first edition, for the Subscribers, by the Author, [1878]-1883. £25,000 - £30,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Birds.- Frisch (Johann Leonard). Vorstellung der Vögel Deutschlandes, 2 vol., first edition, Berlin, Friedr. Wilhelm Birnsteil, [1736]-1763. £40,000 - £60,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Birds.- Gould (John). The Birds of Great Britain, 5 vol., first edition, by the author, 1862-1873. £30,000 - £40,000.
    Forum Auctions
    Natural History: The remaining stock of Antiquariaat Junk, 1899-2026
    25 March 2026
    Forum, Mar. 25: Pomology.- France.- Poiteau (A.) Pomologie Française. Recueil des Plus Beaux Fruits cultivés en France, 4 vol., Paris, 1846. £30,000 - £40,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Botany.- [Robin (Jean)]. Histoire des Plantes, nouvellement trouvées en l'Isle Virgine…,, 1620; with Geoffrey Linocier L'Histoire des plantes, second edition, 1619-20. £3,000 - £4,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Asia.- Japan.- Siebold (P.F. von). Nippon. Archiv zur Beschreibung von Japan, 7 parts in 6 vol., first edition, Leyden, [1832]-1852. £35,000 - £45,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Asia.- Valentijn (Francois). Oud en Nieuw Oost-Indiën..., 5 vol. in 8, first edition, Dordrecht [&] Amsterdam, 1724-26. £8,000 - £12,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Botany.- Australia.- Redouté (P.J.).- Ventenat (Étienne Pierre). Jardin de la Malmaison, 2 vol.,, Paris, 1803-04[-05]. £30,000 - £40,000.
  • Advertisement <b>ALDE, Mar. 11:</b> AUGUSTIN (Saint). <i>De civitate Dei.</i> Rome, Konrad Sweynheym et Arnold Pannartz, 1470. €20,000 - €30,000. <b>ALDE, Mar. 11:</b> [REGNART (LE LIVRE DE)]. <i>[Le] Docteur en malice, maistre Regnard, demonstrant les ruzes et cautelles qu'il use envers les personnes…</i> Rouen, 1550. €20,000 - €30,000. <b>ALDE, Mar. 11:</b> TRITHÈME (JEAN). <i>Polygraphie et universelle escriture cabalistique.</i> Paris, [Benoît Prévost pour] Jacques Kerver, 1561. €8,000 - €10,000. Advertisement <b>ALDE, Mar. 11:</b> CAUS (SALOMON DE). <i>La Perspective, avec la raison des ombres et des miroirs.</i> Londres, John Norton, 1612. <b>ALDE, Mar. 11:</b> NICERON (JEAN-FRANÇOIS). <i>La Perspective curieuse ou magie artificielle des effets merveilleux de l'optique.</i> Paris, Pierre Billaine, 1638. €6,000 - €8,000. <b>ALDE, Mar. 11:</b> VONTET (JACQUES). <i>L’Art de trancher la viande et toute sorte de fruits…</i> S.l.n.d. [probablement Lyon, vers 1647]. €20,000 - €30,000. Advertisement <b>ALDE, Mar. 11:</b> HUGO (VICTOR). [Paysage spectral avec une église], [vers 1837]. €20,000 - €30,000. <b>ALDE, Mar. 11:</b> [HERVEY DE SAINT-DENYS (LÉON D')]. <i>Les Rêves et les Moyens de les diriger. Observations pratiques.</i> Paris, Amyot, 1867. €3,000 - €4,000. <b>ALDE, Mar. 11:</b> GACHET (PAUL-FERDINAND). <i>Les Chats de Gachet</i> (Manuscrit). S.d. [avant mai 1873]. €6,000 - €8,000. Advertisement <b>ALDE, Mar. 11:</b> [REDON (ODILON)]. PICARD (EDMOND). <i>Le Juré. Monodrame en cinq actes…</i> Bruxelles, Mme veuve Monnom, 1887. €7,000 - €9,000. <b>ALDE, Mar. 11:</b> [TOULOUSE-LAUTREC (HENRI DE) ET HENRI-GABRIEL IBELS]. MONTORGUEIL (GEORGES). <i>Le Café-concert.</i> Paris, [1893]. €4,000 - €5,000. <b>ALDE, Mar. 11:</b> [TERRY (EMILIO)]. <i>Projet de fontaine.</i> Dessin original au stylo et à l'encre noire. 1938. €2,000 - €3,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: AUGUSTIN (Saint). De civitate Dei. Rome, Konrad Sweynheym et Arnold Pannartz, 1470. €20,000 - €30,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: [REGNART (LE LIVRE DE)]. [Le] Docteur en malice, maistre Regnard, demonstrant les ruzes et cautelles qu'il use envers les personnes… Rouen, 1550. €20,000 - €30,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: TRITHÈME (JEAN). Polygraphie et universelle escriture cabalistique. Paris, [Benoît Prévost pour] Jacques Kerver, 1561. €8,000 - €10,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: CAUS (SALOMON DE). La Perspective, avec la raison des ombres et des miroirs. Londres, John Norton, 1612.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: NICERON (JEAN-FRANÇOIS). La Perspective curieuse ou magie artificielle des effets merveilleux de l'optique. Paris, Pierre Billaine, 1638. €6,000 - €8,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: VONTET (JACQUES). L’Art de trancher la viande et toute sorte de fruits… S.l.n.d. [probablement Lyon, vers 1647]. €20,000 - €30,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: HUGO (VICTOR). [Paysage spectral avec une église], [vers 1837]. €20,000 - €30,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: [HERVEY DE SAINT-DENYS (LÉON D')]. Les Rêves et les Moyens de les diriger. Observations pratiques. Paris, Amyot, 1867. €3,000 - €4,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: GACHET (PAUL-FERDINAND). Les Chats de Gachet (Manuscrit). S.d. [avant mai 1873]. €6,000 - €8,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: [REDON (ODILON)]. PICARD (EDMOND). Le Juré. Monodrame en cinq actes… Bruxelles, Mme veuve Monnom, 1887. €7,000 - €9,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: [TOULOUSE-LAUTREC (HENRI DE) ET HENRI-GABRIEL IBELS]. MONTORGUEIL (GEORGES). Le Café-concert. Paris, [1893]. €4,000 - €5,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: [TERRY (EMILIO)]. Projet de fontaine. Dessin original au stylo et à l'encre noire. 1938. €2,000 - €3,000.
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