A recent inquiry from a dealer-appraiser raised a pertinent question; with significant changes in the world over the past year, have rare book, manuscript, and map appraisals issued in the mid-2019s ought/should they be revised?
There are two answers.
Valuation is generally determined on long term trends but when there are tectonic shifts and if auction prices hew high and low, should appraisals reflect short term reality?
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Charts and Analyses is a link to a series of year by year charts accessible while signed in as a paid member:
Using these charts it’s possible to examine 2019 month by month to compare the first 4 months [soon 5 months] of 2020 whether the market is holding firm.
And the answers are yes, yes, and not quite.
The pace of auction lots are holding, that said, the year over year norm has been that that number increases about 3.5% a year. So, because there is no current gain that’s a bit unusual.
The percentage of lots sold is also vital and it is a reasonable conjecture that the percentage of lots sold would be declining given the Covid crisis. This year the sell through rate has actually inched up from 80.4% in 2019 to 82.4% in 2020. This has been unexpected and frequently commented on in the Weekly Auction Updates.
And now for the not quite – and this may be meaningful. The median lot price is running soft. This is unsurprising because auction houses world-wide carefully manage low estimates to ensure success for all parties. So it’s logical that in this Covid period estimates are trending down. And said another way, when/if estimates begin to trend higher this will be a forward indicator that the auction market is believing the worst is behind us. Fingers crossed!
And a reminder that research members can also chart market expectations for any material in the Transaction Database. To do this run your search, select relevant records by marking them, then run the Get Current Estimate for a custom prepared report in 15 seconds.
Forum Auctions Natural History: The remaining stock of Antiquariaat Junk, 1899-2026 25 March 2026
Forum, Mar. 25: Botany.- Andrews (H.C.) Coloured Engravings of Heaths, 4 vol. in 2, first edition, [1710,--94]-1802-1809-[1830]. £10,000 - £15,000.
Forum, Mar. 25: Butterflies.- Cramer (Pierre) and Caspar Stoll. De Uitlandsche Kapellen voorkomende in de drie Waereld-Deelen…,, 5 vol., Amsterdam & Utrecht, 1779-91. £8,000 - £12,000.
Forum, Mar. 25: Voyages.- Darwin (Charles) and others. Narrative of the Surveying Voyages of His Majesty's Ships Adventure and Beagle, 3 vol. in 4, including Appendix to vol.2, first edition, 1839. £8,000 - £12,000.
Forum, Mar. 25: Butterflies.- de Graaf (Willem Diederik Vincent). [Inlandsche Kapellen in beeld], 170 fine original watercolours, [Enkhuizen], [1800-40]. £8,000 - £12,000.
Forum Auctions Natural History: The remaining stock of Antiquariaat Junk, 1899-2026 25 March 2026
Forum, Mar. 25: Birds.- Dresser (Henry Eeles). A History of the Birds of Europe, 9 vol., including supplement, first edition, by the author, 1871-96. £6,000 - £8,000.
Forum, Mar. 25: Zoology.- Felines.- Elliot (Daniel Giraud). A Monograph of the Felidæ or Family of the Cats, first edition, for the Subscribers, by the Author, [1878]-1883. £25,000 - £30,000.
Forum, Mar. 25: Birds.- Frisch (Johann Leonard). Vorstellung der Vögel Deutschlandes, 2 vol., first edition, Berlin, Friedr. Wilhelm Birnsteil, [1736]-1763. £40,000 - £60,000.
Forum, Mar. 25: Birds.- Gould (John). The Birds of Great Britain, 5 vol., first edition, by the author, 1862-1873. £30,000 - £40,000.
Forum Auctions Natural History: The remaining stock of Antiquariaat Junk, 1899-2026 25 March 2026
Forum, Mar. 25: Pomology.- France.- Poiteau (A.) Pomologie Française. Recueil des Plus Beaux Fruits cultivés en France, 4 vol., Paris, 1846. £30,000 - £40,000.
Forum, Mar. 25: Botany.- [Robin (Jean)]. Histoire des Plantes, nouvellement trouvées en l'Isle Virgine…,, 1620; with Geoffrey Linocier L'Histoire des plantes, second edition, 1619-20. £3,000 - £4,000.
Forum, Mar. 25: Asia.- Japan.- Siebold (P.F. von). Nippon. Archiv zur Beschreibung von Japan, 7 parts in 6 vol., first edition, Leyden, [1832]-1852. £35,000 - £45,000.
Forum, Mar. 25: Asia.- Valentijn (Francois). Oud en Nieuw Oost-Indiën..., 5 vol. in 8, first edition, Dordrecht [&] Amsterdam, 1724-26. £8,000 - £12,000.
Forum, Mar. 25: Botany.- Australia.- Redouté (P.J.).- Ventenat (Étienne Pierre). Jardin de la Malmaison, 2 vol.,, Paris, 1803-04[-05]. £30,000 - £40,000.
Forum Auctions Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works on Paper 26th March 2026
Forum, Mar. 26: Book of Hours.- Heures a lusaige de Romme, printed on vellum, with 14 full-page illuminated miniatures, Paris, N. Higman for J. de Brie, [c.1521]. £20,000-30,000
Forum, Mar. 26: France.- Book of Hours, perhaps Use of the Abbey of Saint-Gildas de Rhuys, with thirteen miniatures surviving from an original cycle of at least twenty, [c. 1430]. £15,000-20,000
Forum, Mar. 26: Milton (John). Paradise lost. A Poem in Ten Books, first edition, Pforzheimer's sixth state, S. Simmons, 1669. £8,000-12,000
Forum, Mar. 26: Blake (William). Illustrations of the Book of Job, one of 215 first issue "Proof" copies, this one of 65 copies on "French" paper, Published by the Author, March 8, 1825 [but March, 1826]. £15,000-20,000
Forum Auctions Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works on Paper 26th March 2026
Forum, Mar. 26: Christie (Agatha). The ABC Murders, first edition, The Crime Club, 1936. £15,000-20,000
Forum, Mar. 26: Halley (Edmund). Astronomiae Cometicae Synopsis, in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, no. 297, pp.1882-99, March 1705. £10,000-15,000
Forum, Mar. 26: Haytham (Ibn al) [known as Alhazen]. Opticae Thesaurus...Item Vitellonis Thuringopoloni libri X..., first edition, Basel, August, 1572. £20,000-30,000
Forum, Mar. 26: Kepler (Johannes). Dioptrice seu demonstratio eorum quae visui & visibilibus propter conspicilla non ita pridem inventa accidunt, first edition, Augsburg, David Frank, 1611. £12,000-18,000
Books & Autographs Wednesday 25 March
Koller, Mar. 25: KAFKA, FRANZ, SCHRIFTSTELLER. Eigenh. Brief mit Unterschrift. Prag, 20. Oktober [19]15. CHF 30,000-40,000.
Koller, Mar. 25: EINSTEIN, ALBERT. Zwei eigenhändige Briefe an Ernst Gabor Straus, unterschrieben "A.E" bzw. "A. Einstein". [Princeton], [19]45. und [1950]. CHF 30,000-40,000.
Koller, Mar. 25: HORTENSE DE BEAUHARNAIS, MUTTER VON NAPOLEON III. Album aus ihrem Besitz mit 69 Aquarellen und Pinselzeichnungen in Sepia oder Grau… CHF 14,000-18,000.
Koller, Mar. 25: ZOOLOGIE - ORNITHOLOGIE - Seligmann, Johann Michael. Verzameling van uitlandsche en zeldzaame Vogelen. Teile 1-8 (von 9) in 2 Bänden. Mit 421 prächtig altkolorierten Kupfertafeln. CHF 14,000-20,000
Koller, Mar. 25: BOTANIK - Berlèse, Lorenzo und Johann Jakob Jung. Iconographie du genre camellia... 3 Bände. Mit 300 Farbstichtafeln "a la poupée.” Paris, [1839-]1841-1843. CHF 12,000-18,000.
