A recent inquiry from a dealer-appraiser raised a pertinent question; with significant changes in the world over the past year, have rare book, manuscript, and map appraisals issued in the mid-2019s ought/should they be revised?
There are two answers.
Valuation is generally determined on long term trends but when there are tectonic shifts and if auction prices hew high and low, should appraisals reflect short term reality?
Research members have access to tools on the brown toolbar under Upcoming Auctions. Here are the choices:
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Charts and Analyses is a link to a series of year by year charts accessible while signed in as a paid member:
Using these charts it’s possible to examine 2019 month by month to compare the first 4 months [soon 5 months] of 2020 whether the market is holding firm.
And the answers are yes, yes, and not quite.
The pace of auction lots are holding, that said, the year over year norm has been that that number increases about 3.5% a year. So, because there is no current gain that’s a bit unusual.
The percentage of lots sold is also vital and it is a reasonable conjecture that the percentage of lots sold would be declining given the Covid crisis. This year the sell through rate has actually inched up from 80.4% in 2019 to 82.4% in 2020. This has been unexpected and frequently commented on in the Weekly Auction Updates.
And now for the not quite – and this may be meaningful. The median lot price is running soft. This is unsurprising because auction houses world-wide carefully manage low estimates to ensure success for all parties. So it’s logical that in this Covid period estimates are trending down. And said another way, when/if estimates begin to trend higher this will be a forward indicator that the auction market is believing the worst is behind us. Fingers crossed!
And a reminder that research members can also chart market expectations for any material in the Transaction Database. To do this run your search, select relevant records by marking them, then run the Get Current Estimate for a custom prepared report in 15 seconds.
Sotheby’s, July 14: Henry De La Beche. "Awful Changes," 1830. $6,000 to $9,000.
Sotheby’s, July 15: [Apollo 11]. Flight Plan, Complete Original Printing Signed by Buzz Aldrin. $5,000 to $8,000.
Sotheby’s, July 15: Thomas Alva Edison. Documents Establishing and Ending the Edison Electric Railway Company. $20,000 to $30,000.
Sotheby’s, July 15: Richard P. Feynman. Feynman's Lectures on Gravitation 1-16, Including the Original Transcriptions of Lectures 12-16 by Morinigo and Wagner, With Richard Feynman's Manuscript Notations, 1971. $12,000 to $18,000.
Sotheby’s, July 15: [Apollo 9]. A Group of Manuals and Mission Documents used by Stuart Roosa as a member of the Astronaut Support Crew. $5,000 to $8,000.
Sotheby’s, July 15: [BYTE: The Small Systems Journal]. A collection of early foundational issues of Byte: The Small Systems Journal, with rare hardcover editions. $5,000 to $8,000.
Forum Auctions The 10th Anniversary Sale Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works on Paper July 16, 2026
Forum, July 16: Inundation papyrus. P.Michael 4, the ‘Inundation papyrus’, a geographical account of the Nile near Canopus, in Greek, remains of two columns from a manuscript scroll on papyrus, Egypt, second century CE. £12,000-18,000
Forum, July 16: Book of Hours, use of Sarum, manuscript on vellum, 6 full-page miniatures, with famous Middle English inscriptions, Southern Netherlands for the English market, [c.1430]. £30,000-50,000
Forum, July 16: Qu'ran, Arabic manuscript on burnished, stencilled, and gold-flecked paper, 447ff., Sultanate Gujarat, Ahmadabad, [after 1411 but no later than 1442]. £15,000-20,000
Forum Auctions The 10th Anniversary Sale Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works on Paper July 16, 2026
Forum, July 16: Turner (William). A New boke of the natures and properties of all wines that are commonly vsed here in England, rare first edition of the first English book on wine, By William Seres, 1568. £20,000-£30,000
Forum, July 16: Spenser (Edmund). The Faerie Queene. first edition, Printed [by John Wolfe] for William Ponsonbie, 1590. £30,000-40,000
Forum, July 16: Shakespeare (William). The Comedie of Errors, extracted from the first folio, Isaac Jaggard and Edward Blount, 1623. £15,000-20,000
Forum Auctions The 10th Anniversary Sale Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works on Paper July 16, 2026
Forum, July 16: Fleming (Ian). Casino Royale, first edition, signed presentation inscription from the author, 1953. £40,000-60,000
Forum, July 16: d'Agoty (Jacques-Fabien Gautier). Anatomie de la Tête, first edition, Paris, chez le Sieur Gautier, 1748. £10,000-15,000
Forum, July 16: Martial Arts.- Lee (Bruce). 'Praying Mantis style' Kung Fu book, containing numerous annotations, diagrams and graphs in Bruce Lee's hand, c. 1960. £50,000-70,000
Forum Auctions The 10th Anniversary Sale Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works on Paper July 16, 2026
Forum, July 16: Warre (Capt. Henry James). Sketches in North America and the Oregon Territory, first edition, rare hand-coloured issue, 1848. £30,000-40,000
Forum, July 16: Norie (John William). The Marine Atlas, or Seaman's Complete Pilot for all the principal places in the known world..., 1826. £30,000-50,000
Forum, July 16: Mao Tse-tung.- Kim Il-sung.-[Note book for visitors from China to Korea], signed by Mao and Kim, [Beijing, 1954]. £10,000-15,000
