Rare Book Monthly
Articles - February - 2005 Issue
2004 Auction Overview
Chart shows how many lots sold over or under the estimate, or not all all.
Of course this is just a summary. If you click the link to "2004 Auction Results" on the left sidebar (be sure you have signed up for a free or paid membership) you will see results for individual auction houses. These results may help you plan your strategies if bidding at auction and give you some idea of what to expect.
While the average sell-through rate at auction was 76%, individual results run from 100% to under 50%. What does this mean? If sell through is at or near 100%, it means the auction house is using either very low or no reserves. You're more likely to find an item slip through at an unusually low price at such an auction. If sell through is lower, it could mean a couple of things. It's possible that an auction was not well attended, the material was obscure, or some other factor kept bidders away. Another, and perhaps more likely scenario, is that the house rejects bids that are significantly below their low estimate. If a house has a lower sell through, but few lots sell under the low estimate, this is a good sign that they are rejecting most lower bids. If there is a lower sell through but still many items sold below the low estimate, it may mean that some of their auctions were overlooked, a good reason to check out what they might be offering next time.
There is one other factor that can lead to a lower sell through. Ultimately, the consigner gets to set minimum acceptable bids. An auction house may advise, but if the consigner sets minimums that tend to the high side, the percentage of lots sold will be low regardless of the auction house.
If the implication is that a house is rejecting most bids below the low estimate, it could happen in one of two ways. The house may state that the minimum acceptable bid is the same as or close to the low estimate. You will know in advance that it is pointless to bid if you do not feel the item is worth the low estimate. However, some auctions will have unstated minimums. They may start the bidding lower, but the house itself will outbid you should you bid a lower amount. We don't approve of this practice as it erroneously lets the bidder believe that his bid will be accepted if no one else places a higher one. Nevertheless, this practice is permitted under current auction standards, though we believe in time only stated minimum bids will be used. Undisclosed reserves discourage participation.
Why do some houses have unusually large numbers of sales either below their low or above their high estimates? There are a number of possible reasons. Prices in a field may be rapidly rising, their estimations may be unrealistic, or they may simply use a very tight range or single price, which will result in having many sales both above their high and below their low estimates. However, some houses tend to skew their estimates to one side. You might think they would all tend to estimate high, resulting in more sales falling below the low estimate. After all, if people believe an item is worth more, won't they bid more? And aren't they more likely to bid if they think their price is a "bargain?" It doesn't seem to make sense to estimate low, and some houses do estimate a bit to the high side. Nevertheless, some auctions estimate low. The logic is to encourage more participation. If you think an item could go cheaply, you may choose to participate, and then as the price rises, if your heart is set on it, you just may chase it up. If an auction house consistently sells items above their maximum estimate, it is possible they are estimating low.
