You can kind of feel it, the disconcerting energy of anxiety. It’s a different kind of thing; somehow tapping into our primordial instincts. There’s a sense of risk in some quarters of America today that we rarely experience but our antenna are now up.
The problem is American politics. It’s a sink hole of failed promises, an uncivil war, an “I’m right and you’re wrong” black and white perspective that makes debate and discussion difficult. The patriotic citizen who puts country and their neighbors first, such people for decades the bedrock and backbone of American life still live by and up to their personal standards, but the fear and hate mongering of television pundits now too often overrides our better human instincts.
I certainly hope we get through this without permanent scars.
Rare books, in this unsettled period, are a luxury and could be collateral damage in an extended economic downturn. And that’s as disappointing as it is undeserved. But it may happen.
Price to earnings valuations have risen to levels seen only twice before during the past one hundred years, in the year leading up to the stock market crash in 1929, and in 2000 at the top of the stock market bubble. The problem is relative valuation. When valuation of one category of investment rises relative to others human instinct is forced to confront two appealing possibilities, a rising stock market with its easy upward momentum, and other categories of investment that are underperforming and therefore become increasingly cheaper.
This debate/discussion always ends the same way. The momentum fails and money moves toward the undervalued assets. But when? I’ve no idea but there are three factors to make us cautious: [1] Stock markets tend to correct during the period July 1st to November 1st, [2] we have had a long upturn since the election of Trump and are overdue for a pull back, and [3] we are six months into a destructive presidency that may lead to impeachment about which outside council Muller is investigating. His report could shift asset valuations in a significant way in a single day.
In downturns, we still turn on the lights and pay our electric bills. But we do pull back on discretionary expenses. If it happens it could make the business tougher for a while.
As to how I’m dealing with this prospect I’ve trimmed my sails a bit. I’ve cut margin borrowing from 30% to 10% and am selling calls to shift market risk to others who are more optimistic. And as to how I’ll approach appealing material if it becomes available I expect to be aggressive because, while economic and politics are cyclical, rarity is not. You must buy it when you find it if the price makes sense but, if we get into a downturn, re-selling could be more difficult for a while.
Forum Auctions Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works on Paper 29th January 2026
Forum, Jan. 29: Plato. [Apanta ta tou Platonos. Omnia Platonis opera], 2 parts in 2 vol., editio princeps of Plato's works in the original Greek, Venice, House of Aldus, 1513. £8,000-12,000
Forum, Jan. 29: Book of Hours, Use of Rome, In Latin, illuminated manuscript on vellum, [Southern Netherlands (probably Bruges), c.1460]. £6,000-8,000
Forum, Jan. 29: Correspondence and documents by or addressed to the first four Viscounts Molesworth and members of their families, letters and manuscripts, 1690-1783. £10,000-15,000
Forum Auctions Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works on Paper 29th January 2026
Forum, Jan. 29: Shakespeare (William). The Dramatic Works, 9 vol., John and Josiah Boydell, 1802. £5,000-7,000
Forum, Jan. 29: Joyce (James). Ulysses, first edition, one of 750 copies on handmade paper, Paris, Shakespeare and Company, 1922 £8,000-12,000
Forum, Jan. 29: Powell (Anthony). [A Dance to the Music of Time], 12 vol., first editions, each with a signed presentation inscription from the author to Osbert Lancaster, 1951-75. £6,000-8,000
Forum Auctions Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works on Paper 29th January 2026
Forum, Jan. 29: Chaucer (Geoffrey). Troilus and Criseyde, one of 225 copies on handmade paper, wood-engravings by Eric Gill, Waltham St.Lawrence, 1927. £3,000-4,000
Forum, Jan. 29: Borges (Jorge Luis). Luna de Enfrente, first edition, one of 300 copies, presentation copy signed by the author to Leopoldo Marechal, Buenos Aires, Editorial Proa, 1925. £3,000-4,000
Forum, Jan. 29: Nolli (Giovanni Battista). Nuova Pianta di Roma, Rome, 1748. £6,000-8,000
Forum Auctions Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works on Paper 29th January 2026
Forum, Jan. 29: Roberts (David). The Holy Land, Syria, Idumea, Arabia, Egypt, & Nubia, 3 vol., first edition, 1842-49. £15,000-20,000
Forum, Jan. 29: Blacker (William). Catechism of Fly Making, Angling and Dyeing, Published by the author, 1843. £3,000-4,000
Forum, Jan. 29: Herschel (Sir John F. W.) Collection of 69 offprints, extracts and separate publications by Herschel, bound for his son, William James Herschel, 3 vol., [1813-50]. £15,000-20,000
Sotheby’s Fine Manuscript and Printed Americana 27 January 2026
Sotheby’s, Jan. 27: An extraordinary pair of books from George Washington’s field library, marking the conjunction of Robert Rogers, George Washington, and Henry Knox. $1,200,000 to $1,800,000.
Sotheby’s, Jan. 27: An extraordinary letter marking the conjunction of George Washington, the Marquis de Lafayette, and Benjamin Franklin. $1,000,000 to $1,500,000.
Sotheby’s, Jan. 27: Virginia House of Delegates. The genesis of the Declaration of Independence and the Bill of Rights. $350,000 to $500,000.
Sotheby’s Fine Manuscript and Printed Americana 27 January 2026
Sotheby’s, Jan. 27: (Gettysburg). “Genl. Doubleday has taken charge of the battle”: Autograph witness to the first day of the Battle of Gettysburg, illustrated by fourteen maps and plans. $200,000 to $300,000.
Sotheby’s, Jan. 27: President Lincoln thanks a schoolboy on behalf of "all the children of the nation for his efforts to ensure "that this war shall be successful, and the Union be maintained and perpetuated." $200,000 to $300,000.
Sotheby’s, Jan. 27: [World War II]. An archive of maps and files documenting the allied campaign in Europe, from the early stages of planning for D-Day and Operation Overlord, to Germany’s surrender. $200,000 to $300,000.
![<b>Forum, Jan. 29:</b> Plato. [<i>Apanta ta tou Platonos. Omnia Platonis opera</i>], 2 parts in 2 vol., editio princeps of Plato's works in the original Greek, Venice, House of Aldus, 1513. £8,000-12,000](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/df7dd9ac-f0d0-4cb3-a44d-2731758530e4.png "<b>Forum, Jan. 29:</b> Plato. [<i>Apanta ta tou Platonos. Omnia Platonis opera</i>], 2 parts in 2 vol., editio princeps of Plato's works in the original Greek, Venice, House of Aldus, 1513. £8,000-12,000")
![<b>Forum, Jan. 29:</b> Book of Hours, Use of Rome, In Latin, illuminated manuscript on vellum, [Southern Netherlands (probably Bruges), c.1460]. £6,000-8,000](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/c40bad29-8cb5-4347-a0fd-5361d39e84a5.png "<b>Forum, Jan. 29:</b> Book of Hours, Use of Rome, In Latin, illuminated manuscript on vellum, [Southern Netherlands (probably Bruges), c.1460]. £6,000-8,000")
![<b>Forum, Jan. 29:</b> Powell (Anthony). [<i>A Dance to the Music of Time</i>], 12 vol., first editions, each with a signed presentation inscription from the author to Osbert Lancaster, 1951-75. £6,000-8,000](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/b7fdee12-4803-4d32-9330-a5729091cb92.png "<b>Forum, Jan. 29:</b> Powell (Anthony). [<i>A Dance to the Music of Time</i>], 12 vol., first editions, each with a signed presentation inscription from the author to Osbert Lancaster, 1951-75. £6,000-8,000")
![<b>Forum, Jan. 29:</b> Herschel (Sir John F. W.) Collection of 69 offprints, extracts and separate publications by Herschel, bound for his son, William James Herschel, 3 vol., [1813-50]. £15,000-20,000](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/a06cc0dd-7619-45e9-b155-5ad75ed7b2e5.png "<b>Forum, Jan. 29:</b> Herschel (Sir John F. W.) Collection of 69 offprints, extracts and separate publications by Herschel, bound for his son, William James Herschel, 3 vol., [1813-50]. £15,000-20,000")
![<b>Sotheby’s, Jan. 27:</b> [World War II]. An archive of maps and files documenting the allied campaign in Europe, from the early stages of planning for D-Day and Operation Overlord, to Germany’s surrender. $200,000 to $300,000.](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/9d2762bc-9f26-47ef-96de-1c28070e19f6.png "<b>Sotheby’s, Jan. 27:</b> [World War II]. An archive of maps and files documenting the allied campaign in Europe, from the early stages of planning for D-Day and Operation Overlord, to Germany’s surrender. $200,000 to $300,000.")