Rare Book Monthly

Articles - September - 2015 Issue

Changing Valuations

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Euro/dollar diverging recently

Over the past year we have seen substantial changes in auction outcomes as expressed in US dollars.  Auctions of course are priced in local currencies, the dollar, pound [-5%] and euro [-12.5] predominate but there are also sales in Mexican pesos, Canadian dollars, Australian dollars [-27.5% ] Swiss francs and occasionally a few others.  We always convert to dollars to make comparison easier.  This said, this past year has seen dramatic shifts in currency values that are affecting the overall market by creating larger differences in outcome by region.

 

Of course, in a perfect world, prices would seamlessly adjust day-to-day and place-to-place to reflect exchange differences but that is not always happening.  We can tell because, while the number of auction lots in Europe continued to increase in the first half of 2015, the continent, which has wrestled both with the “Greek problem” and resistance to the monetary easing that has been employed in the United States, have seen outcomes reported in euros weaken.  These differences have made the euro particularly unstable and for the first time in memory suggest, we think mistakenly, that the long-term trend toward a worldwide auction market is losing steam.  It is not but it is a reminder that the euro is an incomplete experiment.

 

Auction sales, by dollars and units, do not always increase.  We see periodic declines because of uncertainty, be it war, recession or depression.  We know that sellers, when they feel this uncertainty, waxing prudent, withhold material and or impose higher reserves to protect themselves against momentary bidding collapses.  And auction houses by and large reflect this reality by not disclosing reserves [which can and do get quietly adjusted] based on market conditions and consignor cold feet.  After all, from seller commitment to the banging down of the auctioneer’s hammer, it often takes six months and not uncommonly a year.  And in that time a lot can happen.

 

Beyond all consideration for life’s uncertainties the introduction of dramatic shifts in exchange rates presents opportunities and risks not seen since the 1970s, the last time that auctions were essentially local and often not accessible to distant bidders.  Theoretically, an item should be worth the same in London, Paris and New York and the Rare Book Hub Transaction Database assumes this to be the case.  But this spring’s results suggest that local prices do not so effortlessly adjust.

 

Such shifts are as often political as they are economic.  China recently devalued the Yuan to keep their factories operating at full capacity.  They did so because they felt the need to maintain a 7% growth rate, a rate that is the envy of the developed world.   But the underlying story is that as the general population shifts from county to city more people need jobs and in a Communist country the government is expected to provide them.  Keeping people on the farm so to speak is fine for some but for many others the challenge and economic advantages of the city lead to unrest if the need is not met.  In other words, China devalued to maintain social order.

 

In Europe the euro is the outcome of a social system that also manages economic integration.  The European union is clearly more a social than economic alliance and perhaps their deepest motivation is to avoid war.  They have their history and it is a bloody one.  Through economic alliance they hope to minimize conflict.  And they are succeeding.  But they are also packaging Germany and Greece in the same currency package and it’s an untested idea being tested for the first time.

 

The United States, before they were united, was a short-lived confederation that quickly gave way to the subjugation of states rights to a unified central government.  Today’s EU is the equivalent of America’s confederation and many expect the United States of Europe to become the logical long-term outcome.

 

While the EU labors on the euro will continue to be periodically unstable, for itself and by extension, casting instability among other currencies.  One outcome will be unusually significant differences in European auction results when translated into US dollars, numbers that on their face suggest weakness this spring but that, when examined more closely, simply reflect Europe’s social, political and economic transformation from a group of counties to a group of states.

 

Finally another way to look at the data is to set aside the assumption that auction results should be uniformly expressed in dollars.  When all results are converted into euros rather than dollars the first six months of 2015 show a 2% gain rather than an 18% decline.  The world is changing and we will adjust our methodology as/when needed.

 

The following analysis compares the past eight years’ January-June auction sales expressed in both dollars and euros. 

 

January-June Sales from 2008-2015

     
               
 

In US Dollar Terms

Average FX Rate

In Euro Terms

 

 

$mm

% Growth

EUR/USD

% Growth

€mm

% Growth

 

1H 2008

$247

 

1.56

 

€ 159

   

1H 2009

$135

(45%)

1.35

(13%)

€ 100

(37%)

 

1H 2010

$169

25%

1.31

(3%)

€ 129

29%

 

1H 2011

$190

12%

1.43

9%

€ 133

3%

 

1H 2012

$307

62%

1.30

(9%)

€ 236

78%

 

1H 2013

$322

5%

1.31

1%

€ 246

4%

 

1H 2014

$345

7%

1.37

5%

€ 251

2%

 

1H 2015

$283

(18%)

1.11

(19%)

€ 256

2%

 

 

 

Rare Book Monthly

  • <b><center>Swann Auction Galleries<br>View Our Record Breaking Results</b>
    <b>Swann:</b> Gideon Welles, <i>Extensive archive of personal and family papers of Lincoln’s Secretary of the Navy,</i> 1791-1914. Sold September 29 — $281,000.
    <b>Swann:</b> Charles Addams, <i>Rock Climbers,</i> cartoon for <i>The New Yorker,</i> watercolor, ink and gouache, 1954. Sold December 15 — $37,500.
    <b>Swann:</b> Charlotte Brontë, <i>Jane Eyre. An Autobiography. Edited by Currer Bell,</i> three volumes, first edition, 1847. Sold June 16, 2022 — $23,750.
    <b>Swann:</b> Geoffrey Chaucer, <i>The Workes of Geffray Chaucer Newlye Printed,</i> London, 1542. Sold October 13 — $106,250.
    <b><center>Swann Auction Galleries<br>View Our Record Breaking Results</b>
    <b>Swann:</b> Dorothea Lange, <i>Migrant Mother, Nipomo, California (Destitute pea pickers in California. Mother of seven children. Age 32),</i> silver print, 1936. Sold October 20 — $305,000.
    <b>Swann:</b> George Washington, Autograph Document Signed, with two manuscript plat maps in holograph, 1751. Sold October 27 — $37,500.
    <b>Swann:</b> Winfred Rembert, <i>Winfred Rembert and Class of 1959,</i> dye on carved & tooled leather, 1999. Sold October 6 — $233,000.
    <b>Swann:</b> M.C. Escher, <i>Relativity,</i> lithograph, 1953. Sold November 3 — $81,250.
  • <b><center>Sotheby’s<br>Original Film Posters<br>27 January - 10 February 2023</b>
    <b>Sotheby’s, Jan. 27-Feb. 10:</b> Vertigo (1958), poster, US. The ultimate poster on this classic Hitchcock title, one of three known examples. £40,000 to £60,000.
    <b>Sotheby’s, Jan. 27-Feb. 10:</b> Lawrence of Arabia (1962), roadshow poster, US. £8,000 to £12,000.
    <b>Sotheby’s, Jan. 27-Feb. 10:</b> Star Wars (1977), style C poster, printer's proof, US. £7,000 to £10,000.
    <b>Sotheby’s, Jan. 27-Feb. 10:</b> The Navigator/ La Croisiere du Navigator (1924), re-release poster (1931), French. £5,000 to £8,000.
    <b>Sotheby’s, Jan. 27-Feb. 10:</b> Bullitt (1968), special test poster, US. £3,000 to £5,000.
  • <b>Old World Auctions (Feb 8):</b> Lot 817. Bellin's complete five-volume maritime atlas with 581 maps & plates (1764). $24,000 to $30,000.
    <b>Old World Auctions (Feb 8):</b> Lot 325. An early and important map of the Republic of Texas (1837). $11,000 to $14,000.
    <b>Old World Auctions (Feb 8):</b> Lot 45. De Bry's early map of North Pole depicting Willem Barentsz' expedition (1601). $3,500 to $4,250.
    <b>Old World Auctions (Feb 8):</b> Lot 154. Poignant map of the United States documenting lynchings (1931). $250 to $325.
    <b>Old World Auctions (Feb 8):</b> Lot 457. Extremely rare matching set of pro-German propaganda from WWI (1914). $2,000 to $2,400.
    <b>Old World Auctions (Feb 8):</b> Lot 815. Homann's world atlas featuring 110 maps in contemporary color (1751). $14,000 to $16,000.
    <b>Old World Auctions (Feb 8):</b> Lot 60. Miniature pocket globe based on Herman Moll (1785). $3,500 to $4,500.
    <b>Old World Auctions (Feb 8):</b> Lot 8. Visscher's rare carte-a-figures world map (1652). $14,000 to $16,000.
    <b>Old World Auctions (Feb 8):</b> Lot 158. Matching satirical maps of the US by McCandlish: "Ration Map" & "Bootlegger's Map" (1944). $3,000 to $4,000.
    <b>Old World Auctions (Feb 8):</b> Lot 820. One of the finest English atlases of the early 19th century (1808). $4,750 to $6,000.
    <b>Old World Auctions (Feb 8):</b> Lot 59. Important milestone in preparation for 1969 moon landing (1963). $750 to $900.
    <b>Old World Auctions (Feb 8):</b> Lot 805. Superb bible leaf with image of crucifixion of Jesus with gilt highlights (1518). $800 to $950.
  • <center><b>Potter & Potter Auctions<br>Fine Books & Manuscripts,<br>including Americana<br>February 16, 2023</b>
    <b>Potter & Potter, Feb. 16:</b> [KELMSCOTT PRESS]. CHAUCER, Geoffrey. <i>The Works…now newly imprinted.</i> Edited by F.S. Ellis. Hammersmith: Kelmscott Press, 1896. $100,000 to $125,000.
    <b>Potter & Potter, Feb. 16:</b> [EINSTEIN, Albert (1879–1955)]. –– ORLIK, Emil (1870–1932), artist. Lithograph signed (“Albert Einstein”). N.p., 1928. $10,000 to $15,000.
    <b>Potter & Potter, Feb. 16:</b> TOLKIEN, John Ronald Reuel. <i>[The Lord of the Rings trilogy:] The Fellowship of the Ring.</i> 1954. –– <i>The Two Towers.</i> 1954. –– <i>The Return of the King.</i> 1955. $10,000 to $15,000.
    <b>Potter & Potter, Feb. 16:</b> CLEMENS, Samuel Langhorne ("Mark Twain") and Charles Dudley WARNER. <i>The Gilded Age: A Tale of Today.</i> Hartford and Chicago, 1873. $6,000 to $8,000.
    <b>Potter & Potter, Feb. 16:</b> LOVECRAFT, Howard Phillips. <i>Beyond the Wall of Sleep.</i> Collected by August Derleth and Donald Wandrei. Sauk City, WI: Arkham House, 1943. $2,000 to $3,000.
  • <center><b>California International Antiquarian Book Fair<br>February 10-12, 2023<br>Pasadena Convention Center<br> abaa.org/cabookfair
    <center><b>California International Antiquarian Book Fair<br>February 10-12, 2023<br>Pasadena Convention Center<br> abaa.org/cabookfair
    <center><b>California International Antiquarian Book Fair<br>February 10-12, 2023<br>Pasadena Convention Center<br> abaa.org/cabookfair
    <center><b>California International Antiquarian Book Fair<br>February 10-12, 2023<br>Pasadena Convention Center<br> abaa.org/cabookfair
    <center><b>California International Antiquarian Book Fair<br>February 10-12, 2023<br>Pasadena Convention Center<br> abaa.org/cabookfair
    <center><b>California International Antiquarian Book Fair<br>February 10-12, 2023<br>Pasadena Convention Center<br> abaa.org/cabookfair
    <center><b>California International Antiquarian Book Fair<br>February 10-12, 2023<br>Pasadena Convention Center<br> abaa.org/cabookfair
    <center><b>California International Antiquarian Book Fair<br>February 10-12, 2023<br>Pasadena Convention Center<br> abaa.org/cabookfair
    <center><b>California International Antiquarian Book Fair<br>February 10-12, 2023<br>Pasadena Convention Center<br> abaa.org/cabookfair
    <center><b>California International Antiquarian Book Fair<br>February 10-12, 2023<br>Pasadena Convention Center<br> abaa.org/cabookfair
    <center><b>California International Antiquarian Book Fair<br>February 10-12, 2023<br>Pasadena Convention Center<br> abaa.org/cabookfair

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