Rare Book Monthly

Articles - September - 2011 Issue

The Fall Approaches

The season opens with high hopes

The season opens with high hopes

Heading into fall buyers and sellers will be meeting head one in a series of auctions that will illuminate the strength and direction of the market.  A great deal is at stake.  As has been the case all year auction houses are handling increasing volume while recently experiencing a marginally lower percentage of completed sales [see charts].  A reasonable conclusion is that reserves are bit higher than buyers are comfortable to reach.  The why is less certain.  One interpretation is that the market, while orderly, is having trouble absorbing increasing volume.  Another is that the economy is weighing on the market.  Both are probably true and their interaction hard to gauge.  Simultaneously the median lot price continues to rise – suggesting that while the percentage of lots has declined those items that are selling are realizing higher prices.  This supports the argument that many dealers make – that quality, rarity and importance sell.  Unfortunately there is more to the market than high spots and the important middle market, defined, as $500 to $4,000, is selectively weak.  Some of this weakness owes to improving value and relevance analysis but the underlying issue is simply availability.  Material in the middle market is often not as rare or significant as once thought.

This may lead to a paradoxical shift in values with premium material increasing in value while a wide swath of [1] collectible but relatively common and [2] important but thinly supported material decline.  Pricing, which has been somewhat arbitrary for decades, may be facing energetic rebuttal in the market place.  What is known is that 70% of spending in dollar terms is made by 20% of the population and that they tend to purchase luxury material.  

Into all this uncertainty the auctions approach.  On September 15th the Eric Caren collection How History Unfolds on Paper, Part I will be sold at Swann.  The Caren sale, which I write about elsewhere in this month’s issue of AE Monthly, is a difficult sale for serious collectors to ignore.  It includes intriguing material relating to signal events.  Eric has a marvelous eye and has commissioned Swann to sell, in three sections over the next two years, many unique pieces relating to history, most of it American.  It’s complexity is such that a review of its index [see attached] may well be the best way to see it, that of course and AE’s auction lot search.

And because this sale is composed of “mixed media,” that is many forms of works on paper including photographs, broadsides, newspapers, pamphlets and books, it taps into some of the strongest sectors in collecting today.  Such material deserves to do well.

Another sale in October will provide us with perspective on how a more narrowly focused collection does.  It’s the Robert H. and Donna L. Jackson Collection of the 19th century and includes both printed and manuscript material, much of it unique.  It is an important collection.

Between these two single owner sales and the many other auctions to be conducted this fall we will live through the changing alchemy of collectibles on paper.  On the other side we will know more.  What we know going in is that some very appealing material is coming up.  How the market will treat this material remains to be seen.

So the title of this article is the fall ahead.  Is it the autumn season or something else?   We’ll know soon enough.


Posted On: 2011-09-01 00:00
User Name: kenpa

Although you seem to draw the lines at price still that is not the sole determinant of rarity or importance. It may not even be the omst important


Rare Book Monthly

  • Sotheby's
    Sell Your Fine Books & Manuscripts
    Sotheby’s: The Shem Tov Bible, 1312 | A Masterpiece from the Golden Age of Spain. Sold: 6,960,000 USD
    Sotheby’s: Ten Commandments Tablet, 300-800 CE | One of humanity's earliest and most enduring moral codes. Sold: 5,040,000 USD
    Sotheby’s: William Blake | Songs of Innocence and of Experience. Sold: 4,320,000 USD
    Sotheby’s: The Declaration of Independence | The Holt printing, the only copy in private hands. Sold: 3,360,000 USD
    Sotheby's
    Sell Your Fine Books & Manuscripts
    Sotheby’s: Thomas Taylor | The original cover art for Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone. Sold: 1,920,000 USD
    Sotheby’s: Machiavelli | Il Principe, a previously unrecorded copy of the book where modern political thought began. Sold: 576,000 GBP
    Sotheby’s: Leonardo da Vinci | Trattato della pittura, ca. 1639, a very fine pre-publication manuscript. Sold: 381,000 GBP
    Sotheby’s: Henri Matisse | Jazz, Paris 1947, the complete portfolio. Sold: 312,000 EUR
  • Old World Auctions (Feb 12):
    Lot 746. Speed's Dual Atlas of Britain & the World with 96 Maps (1676). Est. $70,000 - $85,000
    Old World Auctions (Feb 12):
    Lot 9. Visscher's Superb Double-Hemisphere World Map with Representations of the Elements (1658). Est. $4,750 - $6,000
    Old World Auctions (Feb 12):
    Lot 58. One of the Most Important 16th Century Maps of the New World (1554). Est. $5,000 - $6,000
    Old World Auctions (Feb 12):
    Lot 745. A Complete Example of Ortelius' Atlas of Ancient Geography (1624). Est. $12,000 - $15,000
    Old World Auctions (Feb 12):
    Lot 73. First English Map to Show California as an Island (1625). Est. $16,000 - $19,000
    Old World Auctions (Feb 12):
    Lot 156. Bachmann's Dramatic View of the Mid-Atlantic Region (1861). Est. $1,800 - $2,200
    Old World Auctions (Feb 12):
    Lot 741. Early Announcement of Continental Congress' Declaration of Independence (1776). Est. $9,000 - $11,000
    Old World Auctions (Feb 12):
    Lot 695. The First Printed Map Devoted to the Pacific (1589). Est. $8,000 - $9,500
    Old World Auctions (Feb 12):
    Lot 733. Superb Image of the Presentation of Jesus in Hand Color (1502). Est. $700 - $850
    Old World Auctions (Feb 12):
    Lot 52. Produced by the Psychological Warfare Branch to Encourage Surrender (1945). Est. $200 - $230
  • Il Ponte, Feb. 25-26: ALDROVANDI, Ulisse (1522-1605) - [Opera omnia]. Bologna: Bellagamba, Benacci, Bonomi, Tebaldini, Ferroni, 1599-1668. €22.000-€28.000
    Il Ponte, Feb. 25-26: [CANALETTO] - VISENTINI, Antonio (1688-1782) da Giovanni Antonio CANAL (1697-1768, detto 'Il Canaletto') - Urbis Venetiarum prospectus celebriores. Venezia: Giovanni Battista Pasquale, 1742-51. €7.000-€10.000
    Il Ponte, Feb. 25-26: LA FONTAINE, Jean de (1621-1695) - Fables Choisies. Parigi: Claude Barbin, 1668. €7.000-€10.000
    Il Ponte, Feb. 25-26: MERCATOR, Rumold (1545-1599) - [I continenti] - Europa; Africa; America Sive India Nova; Asia. Amsterdam: S.d. [ca. 1633]. €2.000-€3.000

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