Rare Book Monthly

Articles - February - 2011 Issue

Auction Trends Updated:  Reality

Declining prices have begun to stabilize

Declining prices have begun to stabilize

A week ago we updated the auction trend charts.  They tell an interesting story:

Auction Trends Charts

December is almost always a positive month for book auctions.  The best material often comes out in the fourth quarter and it’s bound to achieve high prices even if the outcomes are less than some consignors hope. The median price increased $20 from the October low of $342 but was still well below the $378 median a year earlier.  As the 12 Month Moving Average of Median Auction Prices chart shows auction realizations are still caught in the downward trend that dates from February 2008.

The change in Year to Year Change in 12 Month Moving Average however also suggests that the downward trend is leveling out as the difference in year to year comparisons by month is moving back to zero.  Before the chart can go positive it has to first escape negative year-to-year comparisons.  This aspect looks better although these year-to-year comparisons are getting easier because last year was a weak year.  This year’s comparison is still negative but approaching “net no change.”

The sell-through rate remains mired at 68%, an unhealthy level that’s about 7% below the average of the past ten years.  This suggests that reserves and buyer willingness to bid are probably about 10% apart.  Said another way the minimum prices buyers are willing to pay are, on average, about 10% below current low estimates.  Consignors would do well to listen carefully to their auction houses if they suggest lower reserves.  Sending something into the rooms means the consignor wants to sell.  Not selling in 2011 and trying again next year doesn’t appear, based on the trends, to be a moneymaking strategy.  Too much material is in the wings.  The selling venues are going to get crowded.



Posted On: 2011-02-03 00:00
User Name: manta

apart from rare items that tend to set their own prices most hi end and general stock are completely over priced by most dealers with a few (succes


Rare Book Monthly

  • Forum Auctions
    Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works on Paper
    29th January 2026
    Forum, Jan. 29: Plato. [Apanta ta tou Platonos. Omnia Platonis opera], 2 parts in 2 vol., editio princeps of Plato's works in the original Greek, Venice, House of Aldus, 1513. £8,000-12,000
    Forum, Jan. 29: Book of Hours, Use of Rome, In Latin, illuminated manuscript on vellum, [Southern Netherlands (probably Bruges), c.1460]. £6,000-8,000
    Forum, Jan. 29: Correspondence and documents by or addressed to the first four Viscounts Molesworth and members of their families, letters and manuscripts, 1690-1783. £10,000-15,000
    Forum Auctions
    Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works on Paper
    29th January 2026
    Forum, Jan. 29: Shakespeare (William). The Dramatic Works, 9 vol., John and Josiah Boydell, 1802. £5,000-7,000
    Forum, Jan. 29: Joyce (James). Ulysses, first edition, one of 750 copies on handmade paper, Paris, Shakespeare and Company, 1922 £8,000-12,000
    Forum, Jan. 29: Powell (Anthony). [A Dance to the Music of Time], 12 vol., first editions, each with a signed presentation inscription from the author to Osbert Lancaster, 1951-75. £6,000-8,000
    Forum Auctions
    Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works on Paper
    29th January 2026
    Forum, Jan. 29: Chaucer (Geoffrey). Troilus and Criseyde, one of 225 copies on handmade paper, wood-engravings by Eric Gill, Waltham St.Lawrence, 1927. £3,000-4,000
    Forum, Jan. 29: Borges (Jorge Luis). Luna de Enfrente, first edition, one of 300 copies, presentation copy signed by the author to Leopoldo Marechal, Buenos Aires, Editorial Proa, 1925. £3,000-4,000
    Forum, Jan. 29: Nolli (Giovanni Battista). Nuova Pianta di Roma, Rome, 1748. £6,000-8,000
    Forum Auctions
    Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works on Paper
    29th January 2026
    Forum, Jan. 29: Roberts (David). The Holy Land, Syria, Idumea, Arabia, Egypt, & Nubia, 3 vol., first edition, 1842-49. £15,000-20,000
    Forum, Jan. 29: Blacker (William). Catechism of Fly Making, Angling and Dyeing, Published by the author, 1843. £3,000-4,000
    Forum, Jan. 29: Herschel (Sir John F. W.) Collection of 69 offprints, extracts and separate publications by Herschel, bound for his son, William James Herschel, 3 vol., [1813-50]. £15,000-20,000
  • Sotheby’s
    Fine Manuscript and Printed Americana
    27 January 2026
    Sotheby’s, Jan. 27: An extraordinary pair of books from George Washington’s field library, marking the conjunction of Robert Rogers, George Washington, and Henry Knox. $1,200,000 to $1,800,000.
    Sotheby’s, Jan. 27: An extraordinary letter marking the conjunction of George Washington, the Marquis de Lafayette, and Benjamin Franklin. $1,000,000 to $1,500,000.
    Sotheby’s, Jan. 27: Virginia House of Delegates. The genesis of the Declaration of Independence and the Bill of Rights. $350,000 to $500,000.
    Sotheby’s
    Fine Manuscript and Printed Americana
    27 January 2026
    Sotheby’s, Jan. 27: (Gettysburg). “Genl. Doubleday has taken charge of the battle”: Autograph witness to the first day of the Battle of Gettysburg, illustrated by fourteen maps and plans. $200,000 to $300,000.
    Sotheby’s, Jan. 27: President Lincoln thanks a schoolboy on behalf of "all the children of the nation for his efforts to ensure "that this war shall be successful, and the Union be maintained and perpetuated." $200,000 to $300,000.
    Sotheby’s, Jan. 27: [World War II]. An archive of maps and files documenting the allied campaign in Europe, from the early stages of planning for D-Day and Operation Overlord, to Germany’s surrender. $200,000 to $300,000.

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