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Articles - February - 2011 Issue

Auction Trends Updated:  Reality

- by Bruce E. McKinney

Declining prices have begun to stabilize

Declining prices have begun to stabilize

A week ago we updated the auction trend charts.  They tell an interesting story:

Auction Trends Charts

December is almost always a positive month for book auctions.  The best material often comes out in the fourth quarter and it’s bound to achieve high prices even if the outcomes are less than some consignors hope. The median price increased $20 from the October low of $342 but was still well below the $378 median a year earlier.  As the 12 Month Moving Average of Median Auction Prices chart shows auction realizations are still caught in the downward trend that dates from February 2008.

The change in Year to Year Change in 12 Month Moving Average however also suggests that the downward trend is leveling out as the difference in year to year comparisons by month is moving back to zero.  Before the chart can go positive it has to first escape negative year-to-year comparisons.  This aspect looks better although these year-to-year comparisons are getting easier because last year was a weak year.  This year’s comparison is still negative but approaching “net no change.”

The sell-through rate remains mired at 68%, an unhealthy level that’s about 7% below the average of the past ten years.  This suggests that reserves and buyer willingness to bid are probably about 10% apart.  Said another way the minimum prices buyers are willing to pay are, on average, about 10% below current low estimates.  Consignors would do well to listen carefully to their auction houses if they suggest lower reserves.  Sending something into the rooms means the consignor wants to sell.  Not selling in 2011 and trying again next year doesn’t appear, based on the trends, to be a moneymaking strategy.  Too much material is in the wings.  The selling venues are going to get crowded.


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Posted On: 2011-02-03 00:00
User Name: manta

apart from rare items that tend to set their own prices most hi end and general stock are completely over priced by most dealers with a few (succes

Rare Book Monthly

  • <B><CENTER>Forum Auctions<br>Natural History: The remaining stock of Antiquariaat Junk, 1899-2026<br>25 March 2026</center></b> <b>Forum, Mar. 25:</b> Botany.- Andrews (H.C.) <i>Coloured Engravings of Heaths,</i> 4 vol. in 2, first edition, [1710,--94]-1802-1809-[1830]. £10,000 - £15,000. <b>Forum, Mar. 25:</b> Butterflies.- Cramer (Pierre) and Caspar Stoll. <i>De Uitlandsche Kapellen voorkomende in de drie Waereld-Deelen…,,</i> 5 vol., Amsterdam & Utrecht, 1779-91. £8,000 - £12,000. <b>Forum, Mar. 25:</b> Voyages.- Darwin (Charles) and others. <i>Narrative of the Surveying Voyages of His Majesty's Ships Adventure and Beagle,</i> 3 vol. in 4, including Appendix to vol.2, first edition, 1839. £8,000 - £12,000. <b>Forum, Mar. 25:</b> Butterflies.- de Graaf (Willem Diederik Vincent). <i>[Inlandsche Kapellen in beeld],</i> 170 fine original watercolours, [Enkhuizen], [1800-40]. £8,000 - £12,000. <B><CENTER>Forum Auctions<br>Natural History: The remaining stock of Antiquariaat Junk, 1899-2026<br>25 March 2026</center></b> <b>Forum, Mar. 25:</b> Birds.- Dresser (Henry Eeles). <i>A History of the Birds of Europe,</i> 9 vol., including supplement, first edition, by the author, 1871-96. £6,000 - £8,000. <b>Forum, Mar. 25:</b> Zoology.- Felines.- Elliot (Daniel Giraud). <i>A Monograph of the Felidæ or Family of the Cats,</i> first edition, for the Subscribers, by the Author, [1878]-1883. £25,000 - £30,000. <b>Forum, Mar. 25:</b> Birds.- Frisch (Johann Leonard). <i>Vorstellung der Vögel Deutschlandes,</i> 2 vol., first edition, Berlin, Friedr. Wilhelm Birnsteil, [1736]-1763. £40,000 - £60,000. <b>Forum, Mar. 25:</b> Birds.- Gould (John). <i>The Birds of Great Britain,</i> 5 vol., first edition, by the author, 1862-1873. £30,000 - £40,000. <B><CENTER>Forum Auctions<br>Natural History: The remaining stock of Antiquariaat Junk, 1899-2026<br>25 March 2026</center></b> <b>Forum, Mar. 25:</b> Pomology.- France.- Poiteau (A.) <i>Pomologie Française. Recueil des Plus Beaux Fruits cultivés en France,</i> 4 vol., Paris, 1846. £30,000 - £40,000. <b>Forum, Mar. 25:</b> Botany.- [Robin (Jean)]. <i>Histoire des Plantes, nouvellement trouvées en l'Isle Virgine…,</i>, 1620; with Geoffrey Linocier <i>L'Histoire des plantes,</i> second edition, 1619-20. £3,000 - £4,000. <b>Forum, Mar. 25:</b> Asia.- Japan.- Siebold (P.F. von). <i>Nippon. Archiv zur Beschreibung von Japan,</i> 7 parts in 6 vol., first edition, Leyden, [1832]-1852. £35,000 - £45,000. <b>Forum, Mar. 25:</b> Asia.- Valentijn (Francois). <i>Oud en Nieuw Oost-Indiën...,</i> 5 vol. in 8, first edition, Dordrecht [&] Amsterdam, 1724-26. £8,000 - £12,000. <b>Forum, Mar. 25:</b> Botany.- Australia.- Redouté (P.J.).- Ventenat (Étienne Pierre). <i>Jardin de la Malmaison,</i> 2 vol.,, Paris, 1803-04[-05]. £30,000 - £40,000.
    Forum Auctions
    Natural History: The remaining stock of Antiquariaat Junk, 1899-2026
    25 March 2026
    Forum, Mar. 25: Botany.- Andrews (H.C.) Coloured Engravings of Heaths, 4 vol. in 2, first edition, [1710,--94]-1802-1809-[1830]. £10,000 - £15,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Butterflies.- Cramer (Pierre) and Caspar Stoll. De Uitlandsche Kapellen voorkomende in de drie Waereld-Deelen…,, 5 vol., Amsterdam & Utrecht, 1779-91. £8,000 - £12,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Voyages.- Darwin (Charles) and others. Narrative of the Surveying Voyages of His Majesty's Ships Adventure and Beagle, 3 vol. in 4, including Appendix to vol.2, first edition, 1839. £8,000 - £12,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Butterflies.- de Graaf (Willem Diederik Vincent). [Inlandsche Kapellen in beeld], 170 fine original watercolours, [Enkhuizen], [1800-40]. £8,000 - £12,000.
    Forum Auctions
    Natural History: The remaining stock of Antiquariaat Junk, 1899-2026
    25 March 2026
    Forum, Mar. 25: Birds.- Dresser (Henry Eeles). A History of the Birds of Europe, 9 vol., including supplement, first edition, by the author, 1871-96. £6,000 - £8,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Zoology.- Felines.- Elliot (Daniel Giraud). A Monograph of the Felidæ or Family of the Cats, first edition, for the Subscribers, by the Author, [1878]-1883. £25,000 - £30,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Birds.- Frisch (Johann Leonard). Vorstellung der Vögel Deutschlandes, 2 vol., first edition, Berlin, Friedr. Wilhelm Birnsteil, [1736]-1763. £40,000 - £60,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Birds.- Gould (John). The Birds of Great Britain, 5 vol., first edition, by the author, 1862-1873. £30,000 - £40,000.
    Forum Auctions
    Natural History: The remaining stock of Antiquariaat Junk, 1899-2026
    25 March 2026
    Forum, Mar. 25: Pomology.- France.- Poiteau (A.) Pomologie Française. Recueil des Plus Beaux Fruits cultivés en France, 4 vol., Paris, 1846. £30,000 - £40,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Botany.- [Robin (Jean)]. Histoire des Plantes, nouvellement trouvées en l'Isle Virgine…,, 1620; with Geoffrey Linocier L'Histoire des plantes, second edition, 1619-20. £3,000 - £4,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Asia.- Japan.- Siebold (P.F. von). Nippon. Archiv zur Beschreibung von Japan, 7 parts in 6 vol., first edition, Leyden, [1832]-1852. £35,000 - £45,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Asia.- Valentijn (Francois). Oud en Nieuw Oost-Indiën..., 5 vol. in 8, first edition, Dordrecht [&] Amsterdam, 1724-26. £8,000 - £12,000.
    Forum, Mar. 25: Botany.- Australia.- Redouté (P.J.).- Ventenat (Étienne Pierre). Jardin de la Malmaison, 2 vol.,, Paris, 1803-04[-05]. £30,000 - £40,000.
  • <b>ALDE, Mar. 11:</b> AUGUSTIN (Saint). <i>De civitate Dei.</i> Rome, Konrad Sweynheym et Arnold Pannartz, 1470. €20,000 - €30,000. <b>ALDE, Mar. 11:</b> [REGNART (LE LIVRE DE)]. <i>[Le] Docteur en malice, maistre Regnard, demonstrant les ruzes et cautelles qu'il use envers les personnes…</i> Rouen, 1550. €20,000 - €30,000. <b>ALDE, Mar. 11:</b> TRITHÈME (JEAN). <i>Polygraphie et universelle escriture cabalistique.</i> Paris, [Benoît Prévost pour] Jacques Kerver, 1561. €8,000 - €10,000. <b>ALDE, Mar. 11:</b> CAUS (SALOMON DE). <i>La Perspective, avec la raison des ombres et des miroirs.</i> Londres, John Norton, 1612. <b>ALDE, Mar. 11:</b> NICERON (JEAN-FRANÇOIS). <i>La Perspective curieuse ou magie artificielle des effets merveilleux de l'optique.</i> Paris, Pierre Billaine, 1638. €6,000 - €8,000. <b>ALDE, Mar. 11:</b> VONTET (JACQUES). <i>L’Art de trancher la viande et toute sorte de fruits…</i> S.l.n.d. [probablement Lyon, vers 1647]. €20,000 - €30,000. <b>ALDE, Mar. 11:</b> HUGO (VICTOR). [Paysage spectral avec une église], [vers 1837]. €20,000 - €30,000. <b>ALDE, Mar. 11:</b> [HERVEY DE SAINT-DENYS (LÉON D')]. <i>Les Rêves et les Moyens de les diriger. Observations pratiques.</i> Paris, Amyot, 1867. €3,000 - €4,000. <b>ALDE, Mar. 11:</b> GACHET (PAUL-FERDINAND). <i>Les Chats de Gachet</i> (Manuscrit). S.d. [avant mai 1873]. €6,000 - €8,000. <b>ALDE, Mar. 11:</b> [REDON (ODILON)]. PICARD (EDMOND). <i>Le Juré. Monodrame en cinq actes…</i> Bruxelles, Mme veuve Monnom, 1887. €7,000 - €9,000. <b>ALDE, Mar. 11:</b> [TOULOUSE-LAUTREC (HENRI DE) ET HENRI-GABRIEL IBELS]. MONTORGUEIL (GEORGES). <i>Le Café-concert.</i> Paris, [1893]. €4,000 - €5,000. <b>ALDE, Mar. 11:</b> [TERRY (EMILIO)]. <i>Projet de fontaine.</i> Dessin original au stylo et à l'encre noire. 1938. €2,000 - €3,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: AUGUSTIN (Saint). De civitate Dei. Rome, Konrad Sweynheym et Arnold Pannartz, 1470. €20,000 - €30,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: [REGNART (LE LIVRE DE)]. [Le] Docteur en malice, maistre Regnard, demonstrant les ruzes et cautelles qu'il use envers les personnes… Rouen, 1550. €20,000 - €30,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: TRITHÈME (JEAN). Polygraphie et universelle escriture cabalistique. Paris, [Benoît Prévost pour] Jacques Kerver, 1561. €8,000 - €10,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: CAUS (SALOMON DE). La Perspective, avec la raison des ombres et des miroirs. Londres, John Norton, 1612.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: NICERON (JEAN-FRANÇOIS). La Perspective curieuse ou magie artificielle des effets merveilleux de l'optique. Paris, Pierre Billaine, 1638. €6,000 - €8,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: VONTET (JACQUES). L’Art de trancher la viande et toute sorte de fruits… S.l.n.d. [probablement Lyon, vers 1647]. €20,000 - €30,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: HUGO (VICTOR). [Paysage spectral avec une église], [vers 1837]. €20,000 - €30,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: [HERVEY DE SAINT-DENYS (LÉON D')]. Les Rêves et les Moyens de les diriger. Observations pratiques. Paris, Amyot, 1867. €3,000 - €4,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: GACHET (PAUL-FERDINAND). Les Chats de Gachet (Manuscrit). S.d. [avant mai 1873]. €6,000 - €8,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: [REDON (ODILON)]. PICARD (EDMOND). Le Juré. Monodrame en cinq actes… Bruxelles, Mme veuve Monnom, 1887. €7,000 - €9,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: [TOULOUSE-LAUTREC (HENRI DE) ET HENRI-GABRIEL IBELS]. MONTORGUEIL (GEORGES). Le Café-concert. Paris, [1893]. €4,000 - €5,000.
    ALDE, Mar. 11: [TERRY (EMILIO)]. Projet de fontaine. Dessin original au stylo et à l'encre noire. 1938. €2,000 - €3,000.

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