• <center><b>Sotheby’s New York<br>Fine Books & Manuscripts Online<br>Ending December 17</b>
    <b>Sotheby’s Online, Now - Dec 17:</b> SHAKESPEARE, WILLIAM. <i>Mr. William Shakespeares Comedies, Histories, and Tragedies…</i> The Second Impression. 1632. $100,000 to $150,000
    <b>Sotheby’s Online, Now - Dec 17:</b> GEORGE CURZON, 1ST MARQUESS CURZON OF KEDLESTON. “Curzon Tiger Hunt.” [India: circa 1901]. 120 albumen photographs. $3,000 to $5,000
    <b>Sotheby’s Online, Now - Dec 17:</b> (CASSADY, NEAL). Kerouac, Jack. <i>On the Road.</i> New York: Viking Press, 1957. Inscribed. $10,000 to $15,000
    <b>Sotheby’s Online, Now - Dec 17:</b> VEGA, JOSEPH PENSO DE LA. <i>Confusion de Confusiones. Dialogos curiosos entre un Philosopho agudo, un Mercader discrete...</i> Amsterdam, 1688. $200,000 to $300,000
    <b>Sotheby’s Online, Now - Dec 17:</b> RACKHAM, ARTHUR — [WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE]. "The Moon Like to a Silver Bow New-Bent in Heaven," original illustration for <i>A Midsummer Night's Dream.</i> $12,000 to $18,000
  • <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 13:</b> Adrian Reland, <i>Imperium Japonicum,</i> first European map to use Sino-Japanese characters, Amsterdam, circa 1740. $1,000 to $1,500.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 13:</b> John Overton, <i>A New & Most Exact Map of America,</i> hand colored, London, 1671. $6,000 to $9,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 13:</b> John James Audubon, <i>The Birds of America & Quadrupeds of North America,</i> together in 10 matching octavo bindings. $20,000 to $30,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 13:</b> Cornelis de Jode, <i>Hemispheriu ab Aequinoctiali Linea,</i> Antwerp, 1593. $20,000 to $30,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 13:</b> Currier & Ives, <i>Across the Continent,</i> New York, 1868, formerly in the collection of Thomas Winthrop Streeter. $7,000 to $10,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 13:</b> Frederick Sander, <i>Reichenbachia, Orchids Illustrated & Described,</i> in four volumes, St. Albans, 1888-94. $5,000 to $7,500.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 13:</b> Color woodblock map of Uraga and Edo Bay showing the course of Commodore Perry’s Black Ship squadron, Japan, circa 1854. $7,000 to $10,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 13:</b> Manuscript report on the arrival of Commodore Matthew Perry, with 2 portraits of Perry & Commander H. A. Adams, Japan. $2,500 to $3,500.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 13:</b> Edward Lear, <i>Castello di Melfi in Basilicata,</i> ink, graphite & watercolor, 1847. $3,000 to $5,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 13:</b> Abraham Ortelius, <i>Islandia,</i> Antwerp, 1603. $3,500 to $5,500.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 13:</b> Philippe Vandermaelen, North American volume of the first atlas to use lithography, Brussels, 1827. $6,000 to $9,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 13:</b> Joseph Frederick Wallet Des Barres, <i>A Chart of the Coast,</i> from the <i>Atlantic Neptune,</i> London, 1780. $18,000 to $22,000.
  • <b>Christie’s London, 12 Dec:</b> Huang Qianren. Complete Geographic Map of the Great Qing Dynasty. £50,000 to £80,000
    <b>Christie’s London, 12 Dec:</b> Book of Hours of Jean Le Sauvage and Jacqueline de Boulogne. £70,000 to £100,000
    <b>Christie’s London, 12 Dec:</b> Abraham Ortelius. <i>Theatrum orbis terrarum. – Parergon. – Nomenclator ptolemaicus,</i> 1584. £80,000 to £120,000
  • <center><b>Doyle: Angling Books from the Collection of Arnold "Jake” Johnson<br>Online Only Auction ending Dec. 18</b>
    <b>Doyle, Arnold “Jake” Johnson Online-Only Auction, ending Dec 18:</b> WETZEL, CHARLES M. American Fishing Books. $400 to $600
    <b>Doyle, Arnold “Jake” Johnson Online-Only Auction, ending Dec 18:</b> BISSELL, ALFRED E., <i>In Pursuit of Salar.</i> $400 to $600
    <b>Doyle, Arnold “Jake” Johnson Online-Only Auction, ending Dec 18:</b> <i>The Settler and Sportsman in Anticosti.</i> $400 to $600
    <center><b>Doyle: Angling Books from the Collection of Arnold "Jake” Johnson<br>Online Only Auction ending Dec. 18</b>
    <b>Doyle, Arnold “Jake” Johnson Online-Only Auction, ending Dec 18:</b> CARLETON, HENRY GUY, <i>Advice to Young Anglers.</i> $300 to $500
    <b>Doyle, Arnold “Jake” Johnson Online-Only Auction, ending Dec 18:</b> ROBINSON, ROLAND EVANS, <i>Forest and Stream Fables. By Awahsoose the Bear.</i> $300 to $500
    <b>Doyle, Arnold “Jake” Johnson Online-Only Auction, ending Dec 18:</b> SAWADA, KEN, <i>The Art of the Classic Salmon Fly.</i> $300 to $500
    <center><b>Doyle: Angling Books from the Collection of Arnold "Jake” Johnson<br>Online Only Auction ending Dec. 18</b>
    <b>Doyle, Arnold “Jake” Johnson Online-Only Auction, ending Dec 18:</b> SOUTHARD, CHARLES ZIBEON, <i>The Evolution of Trout and Trout Fishing in America.</i> $400 to $600
    <b>Doyle, Arnold “Jake” Johnson Online-Only Auction, ending Dec 18:</b> SOUTHARD, CHARLES ZIBEON, <i>Trout Fly-Fishing in America.</i> $400 to $600

Rare Book Monthly

Articles - July - 2006 Issue

For Printed Materials: The Probability of Appearance

Munselliana.photo

Joel Munsell: the fastidious bibliographer


By Bruce McKinney

It is becoming possible to estimate the print runs of perhaps 150,000 antiquarian items, whose printing histories were never recorded, based on formulas that compare detailed printing records provided by Joel Munsell to the number of copies found in the OCLC, appearances at auction and sightings on listing sites and eBay. The goal is a new statistical measure that projects "probability of appearance" for books and ephemera. The internet has made it possible for millions of items to be offered but what is the likelihood what you are looking for will show up? I think we can know.

Munsell's material, published over a fifty year period in the 19th century, covered an extensive range of subjects and was printed in formats that range from 8-page pamphlets to 400-page books. He documented his printing history and it comes down to us today as a basis for comparison to copies in institutional, auction and listing venues. He published a directory of 2,268 printings and documented a thousand items, published between 1834 and 1870, with bibliographic details and the quantities printed.

For book dealers, collectors, auction houses and libraries such information may in time become part of a printing's essential facts. The initial print run is but one factor in calculating "probability of appearance" but it is an essential one that combined with appearances in various databases, historical data and bibliographic details may make it possible to construct an index with implications for all collectible printed materials.

The theory is simple algebra and the objective to solve for the unknown. Munsell provides half the variables and modern databases and listing sites the other. In Munsell's case, with both sides known, we should be able to establish the range of variation with some precision and apply this range broadly to material that lacks the quantity printed but is otherwise bibliographically complete.

For this we owe a debt to Joel Munsell, the Albany, New York printer, who maintained extensive records of the various books and pamphlets he printed during his career. In Bibliotheca Munselliana: A Catalogue of the Books and Pamphlets issued from the Press of Joel Munsell from the year 1828 to 1870, he detailed 2,268 book and pamphlet printing jobs including the quantity printed for about 1,000 of them. Using the information he provides it's possible to compare his quantities with their appearances in library inventories, at auction and on listing sites. With these numbers we can estimate survival statistics and in time "probabilities of appearance."

In this article I examine Munsell's production for the period 1834 through 1840 for which he identifies 104 items. I then focus on 64, all books and pamphlets, for which he provides the quantities printed and compare these quantities to the number of copies found in the OCLC today. Let's take a look.

Rare Book Monthly

  • <b>19th Century Shop:</b> Charles Darwin on sexuality and the transmission of hereditary characteristics: Autograph Letter Signed to Lawson Tait. Down, 17 January [1877].
    <b>19th Century Shop:</b> MILTON, JOHN. <i>Paradise Lost. A Poem written in ten books.</i> London: 1667. A very rare example with the contemporary binding untouched and with a 1667 title page.
    <b>19th Century Shop:</b> Hamilton secures the ratification of the Constitution: <i>The Debates and Proceedings of the Convention of the State of New-York, assembled at Poughkeespsie, on the 17th June, 1788.</i>
    <b>19th Century Shop:</b> The social contract “Man is born free, and everywhere he is in chains”: ROUSSEAU, JEAN-JACQUES. <i>Principes du Droit Politique [Du Contract Social]</i>. Amsterdam: Michel Rey, 1762
    <b>19th Century Shop:</b> “The first English textbook on geometrical land-measurement and surveying”: BENESE, RICHARD. <i>This Boke Sheweth the Maner of Measurynge All Maner of Lande…</i>
  • <b>Arenberg Auctions: Rare Books, Manuscripts, Maps, and Works on Paper. December 14 & 15, 2018</b>
    <b>Arenberg Auctions, Dec 14-15:</b> LÉOPOLD II of Belgium. Autograph letter signed to Ferdinand de Lesseps. (Brusselss, 30th of August 1881. € 500 / 600
    <b>Arenberg Auctions, Dec 14-15:</b> Unique collection of c. 280 satirical postcards on Léopold II of Belgium.<br>€ 3.000 / 3.500
    <b>Arenberg Auctions, Dec 14-15:</b> Horae, use of Rouen, c. 1475.<br>€ 22.000 / 30.000
    <b>Arenberg Auctions: Rare Books, Manuscripts, Maps, and Works on Paper. December 14 & 15, 2018</b>
    <b>Arenberg Auctions, Dec 14-15:</b> <i>Sensuyt la tresplaisante hystoire du preux et vaillant Guerin de Montglaue</i> [...]. € 6.000 / 8.000
    <b>Arenberg Auctions, Dec 14-15:</b> SCUTENAIRE, Louis. <i>Mes inscriptions.</i> 1945-1963. € 1.000 / 1.200
    <b>Arenberg Auctions, Dec 14-15:</b> Études Gèographiques [puzzle].<br>€ 70 / 100
    <b>Arenberg Auctions: Rare Books, Manuscripts, Maps, and Works on Paper. December 14 & 15, 2018</b>
    <b>Arenberg Auctions, Dec 14-15:</b> Unique series of fifty 19th-c. Persian miniatures. € 1.500 / 2.500
    <b>Arenberg Auctions, Dec 14-15:</b> SIXTUS IV. <i>De sanguine Christi et De potentia Dei,</i> 1474. € 4.500 / 6.000
    <b>Arenberg Auctions, Dec 14-15:</b> Joan Miró, lithographies. € 200 / 300
    <b>Arenberg Auctions, Dec 14-15:</b> MERIAN, Anna Maria Sibylla. [Metamorphosis of a brown butterfly]. € 4.000 / 5.000
  • <b>Bonhams New York: Fine Books and Manuscripts Including the World of Hilary Knight. December 5, 2018</b>
    <b>Bonhams, Dec 5:</b> KNIGHT, HILARY. The Original Portrait of Eloise that Hung at the Plaza Hotel. $100,000 to 150,000
    <b>Bonhams, Dec 5:</b> WARHOL, ANDY. "Iced Lemon Delight," an Original Watercolor Presented to Hilary Knight's cat, Phoebe $8,000 to 12,000
    <b>Bonhams, Dec 5:</b> SENDAK, MAURICE. <i>Where the Wild Things Are.</i> PRESENTATION COPY, INSCRIBED with drawing to Hilary Knight in the month following publication. $10,000 to 15,000
    <b>Bonhams New York: Fine Books and Manuscripts Including the World of Hilary Knight. December 5, 2018</b>
    <b>Bonhams, Dec 5:</b> NOLAND, KENNETH. Original circle painting, untitled, acrylic and ink on cloth, for cover of monograph $8,000 to 12,000
    <b>Bonhams, Dec 5:</b> TOULOUSE-LAUTREC. <i>Histoires Naturelles,</i> 1899. With 22 original lithographs. $10,000 to 15,000
    <b>Bonhams, Dec 5:</b> SHAKESPEARE, WILLIAM. <i>A Collection of Poems,</i> [1711]. The first authoritative and complete collected Sonnets.$15,000 to 20,000
    <b>Bonhams New York: Fine Books and Manuscripts Including the World of Hilary Knight. December 5, 2018</b>
    <b>Bonhams, Dec 5:</b> LONDON, JACK. <i>The Call of the Wild.</i> 1903. First edition, first state jacket. $2,000 to 3,000
    <b>Bonhams, Dec 5:</b> FROST, ROBERT. Autograph Manuscript of "Build Soil," 12 pp, 1932-1936. $15,000 to 20,000
    <b>Bonhams, Dec 5:</b> GOULD, GLENN. Glenn Gould's extensively annotated copy of Bach's Goldberg Variations $100,000 to 150,000
    <b>Bonhams New York: Fine Books and Manuscripts Including the World of Hilary Knight. December 5, 2018</b>
    <b>Bonhams, Dec 5:</b> PLATH, SYLVIA. EARLY Autograph Letter Signed, about her beginnings as a writer, Northampton, MA, 1951. $7,000 to 10,000
    <b>Bonhams, Dec 5:</b> HOUDINI, HARRY. A collection of 11 cast iron shackle and lock items from Houdini's personal collection. $20,000 to 30,000
    <b>Bonhams, Dec 5:</b> M4 ENGIMA MACHINE, with very rare RARE HYDRA KEY ENVELOPE. $400,000 to 600,000
  • <center><b>Sotheby’s New York<br>Fine Autograph Letters and Manuscripts from a Distinguished Private Collection: Part II<br>December 13, 2018</b>
    <b>Sotheby’s NY, Dec 13:</b> Sibelius, Jean. Autograph manuscript of “Spagnuolo” for piano, boldly signed “Jean Sibelius.” $20,000 to $30,000
    <b>Sotheby’s NY, Dec 13:</b> Verdi, Giuseppe. Fourteen largely unpublished autograph letters signed to Alessandro Lanari, the “Napoleon of Impresarios.” $100,000 to $150,000
    <b>Sotheby’s NY, Dec 13:</b> Jefferson, Thomas. Autograph letter signed ("Th: Jefferson") to William Lee, Monticello, 26 August 1816. $20,000 to $30,000
    <b>Sotheby’s NY, Dec 13:</b> Whitman, Walt. Signed carte-de-visite photograph by Benjamin Gurney, 1875. $1,000 to $1,500
    <b>Sotheby’s NY, Dec 13:</b> Wilde, Oscar. Autograph letter signed ("Oscar Wilde"). 8 pages on 2 bifolia of different sizes, with ink sketch on the first page. $25,000 to $30,000

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