• <b>Potter & Potter Auctions, July 8: Rare Books & Manuscripts</b>
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions July 8:</b><br> Walter Gibson's Complete Run of The Shadow. 48 bound volumes, 1931-44. $8,000-12,000
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions July 8:</b><br> Frederic Shoberl, The World in Miniature: Hindoostan. 6 volumes. $2,000-4,000
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions July 8:</b><br> A Rare Copy of the Earliest Chicago Newspaper to Report on the Great Fire of 1871. $6,000-8,000
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions, July 8: Rare Books & Manuscripts</b>
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions July 8:</b><br> Broadside Proclamation by Mayor Roswell B. Mason for the Preservation of Good Order Following the Great Fire of 1871. Chicago. $4,000-6,000
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions July 8:</b><br> Peter Force Engraving of the Declaration of Independence. One page. Scarce and highly collectable. $15,000-20,000
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions July 8:</b><br> John Quincy Adams. The Jubilee of the Constitution. A Discourse. First edition. Inscribed. 1839. $3,000-5,000
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions, July 8: Rare Books & Manuscripts</b>
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions July 8:</b><br> Cuban Revolution: Expedicion y Desembarco del “Granma.” Havana, ca. 1959. With portraits of the Castro brothers & Che Guevara. $150-250
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions July 8:</b><br> Osuna Ramos. A group of 28 photographs of the Mexican Revolution & aftermath in Mexico City, 1910-1920. 4½ x 6”. $400-600
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions July 8:</b><br> Charles Bukowski. Hot Water Music. First edition with original signed painting. 1983. $2,000-4,000
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions, July 8: Rare Books & Manuscripts</b>
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions July 8:</b><br> Alan Ginsberg. Five Page Autographed Letter. Signed. February 10, 1971. $3,000-5,000
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions July 8:</b><br> Andy Warhol’s Children’s Book. Featuring 12 color illustrations. Signed 5 times. 1983. $5,000-7,000
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions July 8:</b><br> Albrecht Durer. The Martyrdom Saint John the Evangelist. Woodcut, 1511 edition. $1,000-2,000
  • <b>Swann Auction Galleries: Inviting Quality Consignments</b>
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar 30:</b> Carte-de-visite album featuring a previously unrecorded image of Harriet Tubman, 1860s. Sold for $161,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Jun 7:</b> Hovhannes Amira Dadian, first world atlas in Armenian, Venice, 1849. Sold for $37,500.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries May 16:</b> T.E. Lawrence, <i>Seven Pillars of Wisdom</i>, privately printed edition, inscribed, London, 1926. Sold for $62,500.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries: Inviting Quality Consignments</b>
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Feb 14:</b> 22 large-format photographs from NASA missions, 1965-84. Sold for $43,750.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar 21: </b> Charles M. Schulz, <i>Here Comes the Big Polar Bear</i>, pen & ink, 4-panel Peanuts comic strip, 1957. Sold for $12,500.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries May 4:</b> Elliott Erwitt, photograph of JFK & Eisenhower, signed by both, 1960. Sold for $32,500.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries: Inviting Quality Consignments</b>
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Mar 9:</b> John Milton, <i>Paradise Lost</i>, first edition, London, 1668. Sold for $22,500.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar 30:</b> Frederick Douglass, Autograph Letter Signed to George Alfred Townsend, Washington, 1880. Sold for $100,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Jan 26:</b> <i>Les Maîtres de l'Affiche</i>, 5 volumes, Paris, 1896-1900. Sold for $47,500.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries: Inviting Quality Consignments</b>
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries May 16:</b> James Joyce, <i>Ulysses</i>, first edition, number 724 on handmade paper, Paris, 1922. Sold for $33,750.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Mar 9:</b> Single leaf of the Gutenberg Bible, Mainz, 1455, in a copy of Newton's <i>A Noble Fragment</i>. Sold for $52,500.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Apr 27:</b> The Book of Mormon, first edition, Palmyra, NY, 1830. Sold for $52,500.
  • <b>Cowan’s Auctions: An Eclectic Collection: The Library of the Late Dr. Ivan Gilbert of Columbus.<br>June 5-26</b>
    <b>Cowan’s, June 5-26:</b> [Voyages and Travel] Churchill's Voyages 1732 - Complete in 6 Volumes.<br>$5,000 - $7,500.
    <b>Cowan’s, June 5-26:</b> [Illustrated] Alice by Salvador Dali, Signed and Limited. $3,000 - $5,000
    <b>Cowan’s, June 5-26:</b> [Literature] The Little Prince - Signed/Limited First French Edition, 1943; #61 of 260. $5,000 - $7,500
    <b>Cowan’s Auctions: An Eclectic Collection: The Library of the Late Dr. Ivan Gilbert of Columbus.<br>June 5-26</b>
    <b>Cowan’s, June 5-26:</b> [Literature] Gone With The Wind, 1st in DJ, May, 1936. $1,500 - $2,500
    <b>Cowan’s, June 5-26:</b> [Literature - Modern Firsts] Rare Henry Miller, Tropic of Cancer, Obelisk Press Paris - 1934. $2,000 - $3,000
    <b>Cowan’s, June 5-26:</b> [[Sporting - Fishing] Rare - Lee Sturges, Salmon Fishing New Brunswick, 1 of 50 Printed - 7 Original Etchings.<br>$4,000 - $6,000
    <b>Cowan’s Auctions: An Eclectic Collection: The Library of the Late Dr. Ivan Gilbert of Columbus.<br>June 5-26</b>
    <b>Cowan’s, June 5-26:</b> [Voyages and Travel - Maritime] Rare Ledyard Account of Cook's Last Voyage, 1783 Hartford, Howes "d".<br>$10,000 - $15,000
    <b>Cowan’s, June 5-26:</b> [Illustrated - Maxfield Parrish] Knave of Hearts, Scribner's, 1st Hardback Edition, 1925 Parrish Illustrations.<br>$750 - $1,000
    <b>Cowan’s, June 5-26:</b> [Bible - Illustrated - Cartography) Massive Dutch Bible, 1682, Contemporary Colored Maps, Working Brass Clasps. $2,500 - $3,500
    <b>Cowan’s Auctions: An Eclectic Collection: The Library of the Late Dr. Ivan Gilbert of Columbus.<br>June 5-26</b>
    <b>Cowan’s, June 5-26:</b> [Women Suffrage - Civil Rights - Autographs] A Unique Extra-Illustrated Life of Susan B. Anthony. $15,000 - $20,000
    <b>Cowan’s, June 5-26:</b> [18th Century French Manuscript] Unpublished History of Belle-Isle-En-Mer, 1754 With Watercolor Illustration.<br>$10,000 - $15,000
    <b>Cowan’s, June 5-26:</b> [Illustrated - Children's - Movable] Wonderful 19th Century Lothar Meggendorfer Moveable Book. $750 - $1,000
  • <b>Now in press: 19th Century Shop’s Catalog 170 Great Books and Photos. Please inquire for a copy.</b>
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> <i>The First American Magna Carta. English Liberties.</i> Boston, 1721.
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> Babbage presentation to Peel, the man who killed the Difference Engine 1832
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> The Stamp Act. 1765
    <b>Now in press: 19th Century Shop’s Catalog 170 Great Books and Photos. Please inquire for a copy.</b>
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> Central Park Photographs by Prevost 1862
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> Salem Witch Trials. Wonders of the Invisible World 1693
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> Mammoth print of Millie-Christine, "The Carolina Twins" c. 1868

Rare Book Monthly

Articles - February - 2016 Issue

Book Prices at Auction Slipped 7% Last Year

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This is not likely to be a major surprise to those in the book trade, but results compiled from book and paper auctions showed a 7% decline in prices in 2015 from the previous year. After several years of increases, nervousness about the economy, perhaps even more in Europe than America, has taken its toll. Threats to the viability of the European union, financial meltdown in Greece, Russian meddling in eastern Europe, threats of terrorism emanating from a complex web of brutal rivalries in the Middle East, and a shattering of the economic miracle of China, have combined to create an uncertain economic environment. Economic uncertainty in turn leads to people holding tightly to their wallets. Even in America, where the economy has been relatively healthy, fear often holds sway, as witnessed by the unusual group of politicians leading the polls for the 2016 presidential election. The book trade is not immune to events swirling around it.

 

The median price* of all lots in the books and paper field declined by 7% last year, dropping from $286 to $266. That compares to a 5% increase the previous year. The result is that prices were also 2% lower than in 2013, but still 5% higher than 2012. Prices had mostly been rising since the major recession that hit in 2008.

 

The decline may have caught the auction houses slightly off guard. The percentage of lots selling above and below auction house estimates also adjusted a little. In 2015, only 59% sold for over the high estimate, versus 62% the year before. Similarly, 22% sold below the low estimate in 2015, compared to 20% in 2014.

 

The sell through rate also slipped, but only marginally. Rounded off, the percentage was 73% vs. 74% in 2014, but in actuality, the decline was only 0.2%, from 73.6% to 73.4%. The total number of items offered and sold were at record highs, though only slightly ahead of the previous year. A total of 422,909 lots were offered in 2015 vs. 413,503 in 2014, while 310,369 sold compared to 304,544 the year before.

 

The decline in prices was reflected by a shift in the price ranges in which lots were sold. While overall sales increased by 6,000, there was an increase in sales of 9,000 at prices from $0-$250. Sales at $250-$500 were virtually the same, while there was a decline of 3,000 lots sold in the $500 and up price range.

 

We have been aware that pricing has been challenging at the low to medium price points, but, perhaps somewhat surprising is it was soft at the higher end as well. Fewer sales in the $500 and up range, and lower medians at auction houses that cater to the highest level of buyers, were reflective of this softness. Perhaps we could have foreseen this from the Top 500 prices paid at auction we published last month (click here). While the top price paid at auction doesn't tell us much about the market in general, by the time you get to the 500th most expensive item, it frequently reflects a trend at the top. After several years of rising, the price of number 500 declined from $79,800 to $74,200, or the same percentage as the decline in the overall median price – 7%.

 

What does this portend for the future? The answer is no one knows. In the past, not even trends seen in the last quarter of the year necessarily carried over to the next. It's like the stock market. Last year was great for the market. Who would have thought it would tumble so in January? Trends last until they don't. Will the stock market now resume its climb, or continue to fall? You will hear voices on both sides, and one side will be right simply because one side has to be right, not because some people really know any better than others. The same is true of prices in the book market. Will they go up or down? We can speculate, but for a certain answer, come back here next year. We will tell you then.

 

 

 

 

*we use median price, the price at which 50% of the lots sold for more, and 50% sold for less, rather than average price as the average can be skewed by a very small number of extremely high priced items. Just one lot sold for $4 million can add $10 to the average price of 400,000 other lots! That said, we note the average price also fell last year, from $2,307 to $2,030 (12%).

 

Those who have followed our reports for a long time may notice that median prices today are considerably lower than they were in the first decade of this century. Most of that is unrelated to changes in prices of comparable items. We saw the opening of some very high volume online auctions selling lower priced material a few years ago. That brought median prices down considerably. However, the mix of those auctions to traditional auctions did not change this past year, making it once again an apples-to-apples comparison.


Posted On: 2016-02-01 22:59
User Name: ckorczak

Wonderful. analysis.


Posted On: 2016-02-02 17:42
User Name: Fattrad1

Michael,

Obviously you are not a astute follower of the equity and debt markets, the S&P 500 was only fractionally up last year and the bond markets struggled.

fattrad
RIA/bookseller


Rare Book Monthly

  • <b>Bonhams London: Fine Books, Atlases, Manuscripts and Photographs. June 14, 2017</b>
    <b>Bonhams Jun 14:</b> Ireland - Patrick Pearse & The Easter Rising. The Order of Surrender, typed and signed (“P. H. Pearse”) and dated, 1916. £80,000 to £120,000
    <b>Bonhams Jun 14:</b> Portolan chart of the Mediterranean, centered on Sicily. Manuscript on vellum, 1637. £40,000 to £60,000
    <b>Bonhams Jun 14:</b> Goya Y Lucientes (Francisco José de). [Tauromaquia] <i> De las diferentes suertes y actitudes del arte de lidiar los toros…</i> 33 etched and aquatint plates. £15,000 to £20,000
    <b>Bonhams London: Fine Books, Atlases, Manuscripts and Photographs. June 14, 2017</b>
    <b>Bonhams Jun 14:</b> Magna Carta. Engraved Facsimile of the 1215 Magna Carta, engraved by John Pine and printed on vellum, 1733. £10,000 to £15,000
    <b>Bonhams Jun 14:</b> Swift (Jonathan). <i> Travels into Several Remote Nations of the World ... by Lemuel Gulliver</i>, 4 parts in 2 vol., first edition, Teerink's "A" edition, 1726. £10,000 to £15,000
    <b>Bonhams Jun 14:</b> Darwin (Charles), Robert Fitzroy and Philip Parker King. <i>Narrative of the Surveying Voyages of His Majesty's Ships Adventure and Beagle, Between the Years 1826 and 1836…</i>, 1839. £10,000 to £15,000
    <b>Bonhams London: Fine Books, Atlases, Manuscripts and Photographs. June 14, 2017</b>
    <b>Bonhams Jun 14:</b> Rackham (Arthur). Cinderella, in rags, standing at a window, within a framework of mice, mystical creatures and plants, from "Cinderella", [1919]. £8,000 to £12,000
    <b>Bonhams Jun 14:</b> Royal Family - St George's Chapel and Princess Charlotte. Papers of John Fisher, successively Bishop of Exeter and Bishop of Salisbury, overseer of the redecoration of St George's Chapel… £8,000 to £10,000
    <b>Bonhams Jun 14:</b> Hemingway (Ernest). <i>Fiesta [The Sun Also Rises]</i>, first English edition, Jonathan Cape, [September 1927]. £6,000 to £8,000
    <b>Bonhams London: Fine Books, Atlases, Manuscripts and Photographs. June 14, 2017</b>
    <b>Bonhams Jun 14:</b> Barlaeus (Caspar). <i> Rerum per octennium in Brasilia</i>, first edition, Amsterdam, Joannes Blaeu, 1647. £6,000 to £8,000
    <b>Bonhams Jun 14:</b> Repton (Humphry and J. Adey). <i>Fragments on the Theory and Practice of Landscape Gardening…</i>, first edition, 1816. £5,000 to £7,000
    <b>Bonhams Jun 14:</b> United States - Photography. "360 Photos of American Scenery. Collected by Norman Selfe on the Spots Represented in 1884", [1880s]. £4,000 to £6,000
  • <b>Pierre Bergé and Associés in association with Sotheby’s:<br>De la musique avant toute chose… June 28, 2017</b>
    <b>Pierre Bergé and Associés in association with Sotheby’s, Jun 28:</b> Roland de Lassus. [Songs and madrigals]. Album gathering three collections of secular music for tenor. 15.000-20.000 €
    <b>Pierre Bergé and Associés in association with Sotheby’s, Jun 28:</b> Richard Wagner. <i>Die Meistersinger von Nürnberg.</i> Original edition corrected and annotated by Wagner. 60.000-80.000 €
    <b>Pierre Bergé and Associés in association with Sotheby’s, Jun 28:</b> Claude Debussy. <i>La Damoiselle élue</i>. Lyrical poem, after D.-G. Rossetti. Limited edition of 160 copies. 6.000-8.000 €
    <b>Pierre Bergé and Associés in association with Sotheby’s:<br>De la musique avant toute chose… June 28, 2017</b>
    <b>Pierre Bergé and Associés in association with Sotheby’s, Jun 28:</b> Stéphane Mallarmé. Handwritten notebook made by Geneviève Mallarmé. No place or date [circa 1910]. 10.000-15.000 €
    <b>Pierre Bergé and Associés in association with Sotheby’s, Jun 28:</b> Henri Sauguet. <i>Les Forains</i>. Ballet. Reduction for piano. Original edition. 20.000-30.000 €
    <b>Pierre Bergé and Associés in association with Sotheby’s, Jun 28:</b> Athanasius Kircher. <i>Musurgia Universalis sive Ars Magna Consoni et Dissoni in X. Libros digesta.</i> 1650. 30.000-40.000 €
    <b>Pierre Bergé and Associés in association with Sotheby’s:<br>De la musique avant toute chose… June 28, 2017</b>
    <b>Pierre Bergé and Associés in association with Sotheby’s, Jun 28:</b> François Villon, & Clément Marot. <i>Les Œuvres de François Villon de Paris, Reviewed and gathered by Clement Marot.</i> 15.000-20.000 €
    <b>Pierre Bergé and Associés in association with Sotheby’s, Jun 28:</b> Rainer Maria Rilke. <i>Larenopfer</i> (Offrande aux dieux Lares). The second collection of Rainer Maria Rilke, containing ninety poems. 6.000-8.000 €
    <b>Pierre Bergé and Associés in association with Sotheby’s, Jun 28:</b> Paul Éluard. <i>Capitale de la douleur.</i> One of the most beautiful poetic collections from the first surrealist wave. 15.000-20.000 €
    <b>Pierre Bergé and Associés in association with Sotheby’s, Jun 28:</b> Pierre de Ronsard. <i>Les Amours</i> ... newly augmented by him, and commented by Marc Antoine de Muret. 40.000-60.000 €

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