• <b>19th Century Shop’s Catalog 170 Great Books and Photos. Please inquire for a copy.</b>
    <b>19th Century Shop:</b> Exodus 10:10 to 16:15. Complete Biblical scroll sheet in Hebrew, a Torah scroll panel. Middle East, ca. 10th or 11th century.
    <b>19th Century Shop:</b> Copernicus Refuted. (Astronomy.). Scientific manuscript of a course of studies at Collège de la Trinité, Lyon. 1660s.
    <b>19th Century Shop:</b> Israel’s War of Independence and the Early Days of the IDF. 58 photographs presented to Israel Ber, IDF officer and later convicted spy.
    <b>19th Century Shop’s Catalog 170 Great Books and Photos. Please inquire for a copy.</b>
    <b>19th Century Shop:</b> Early Unpublished Darwin letter on the races of man. Autograph Letter Signed [to Henry Denny]. Down, Kent, June 1, [1844].
    <b>19th Century Shop:</b> Classic Image of American Slavery. Kimball, M. H. <i>Emancipated Slaves</i>. New York: George Hanks, 1863.
    <b>19th Century Shop:</b> (Underground Railroad.) Scaggs, Isaac. Important Runaway Slave Poster: $500 Reward Ran away, or decoyed from the subscriber…
  • <b>Forum Auctions:<br>The Moon: Vintage NASA Photographs 1964-1972 (Online Only). Now through October 18</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Now thru Oct. 18:</b> "The world's first view of the Earth taken by a spacecraft from the vicinity of the Moon" (NASA), Lunar Orbiter 1, 23 August 1966. Est. £600 to £800
    <b>Forum Auctions, Now thru Oct. 18:</b> Anders (William). The first Earthrise seen by Man, Apollo 8, December 1968. Est. £1,500 to £2,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, Now thru Oct. 18:</b> Armstrong (Neil). The first photograph taken by Armstrong after setting foot on the Moon, Apollo 11, July 1969. Est. £600 to £800
    <b>Forum Auctions:<br>The Moon: Vintage NASA Photographs 1964-1972 (Online Only). Now through October 18</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Now thru Oct. 18:</b> Aldrin (Buzz). Aldrin's bootprint in the pristine lunar dust, Apollo 11, July 1969. Est. £600 to £800
    <b>Forum Auctions, Now thru Oct. 18:</b> Armstrong (Neil). Buzz Aldrin with the LM and Armstrong reflected in his visor, Apollo 11, July 1969. Est. £1,000 to £1,500
    <b>Forum Auctions, Now thru Oct. 18:</b> Full Moon seen from the receding spacecraft, Apollo 13, April 1970. Est £300 to £500
    <b>Forum Auctions:<br>The Moon: Vintage NASA Photographs 1964-1972 (Online Only). Now through October 18</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Now thru Oct. 18:</b> Craters Copernicus and Reinhold, Apollo 12, November 1969. Est. £300 to £500
    <b>Forum Auctions, Now thru Oct. 18:</b> Conrad (Pete). The photographer reflected in Alan Bean's gold-plated sun visor, Apollo 12, November 1969. Est. £800 to £1,200
    <b>Forum Auctions, Now thru Oct. 18:</b> Scott (David). James Irwin and the Rover, Mount Hadley beyond, Apollo 15, August 1951. Est. £400 to £600
    <b>Forum Auctions:<br>The Moon: Vintage NASA Photographs 1964-1972 (Online Only). Now through October 18</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Now thru Oct. 18:</b> Duke (Charles). John Young's jumping salute in lunar gravity, Apollo 16, April 1972. Est. £600 to £800
    <b>Forum Auctions, Now thru Oct. 18:</b> Cernan (Eugene). Harrison Schmitt with the flag, the Earth overhead, Apollo 17, December 1972. Est. £800 to £1,200
    <b>Forum Auctions, Now thru Oct. 18:</b> Evans (Ronald). The last Earthrise over the Moon seen by man, Apollo 17, December 1972. Est. £800 to £1,200
  • <b>Swann Auction Galleries Nov 14: 19th & 20th Century Literature</b>
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Nov 14:</b><br><i>The Centenary Edition of the Works of Ian Fleming</i>, one of 26 lettered sets, 18 volumes, London, 2008. $25,000 to $30,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Nov 14:</b> William Faulkner, <i>The Marble Faun</i>, first edition, signed & inscribed to Dorothy Wilcox by Faulkner & Phil Stone, Boston, 1924. $18,000 to $25,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Nov 14:</b> Maurice Sendak, <i>Where the Wild Things Are</i>, first edition, signed & inscribed to William Archibald, New York, 1963. $10,000 to $15,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Nov 14: 19th & 20th Century Literature</b>
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Nov 14:</b> Anne Frank, <i>Het Achterhuis</i>, first edition, in first state jacket, Amsterdam, 1947. $12,000 to $18,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Nov 14:</b> Roald Dahl, <i>Charlie and the Chocolate Factory</i>, first edition, signed, New York, 1964. $6,000 to $9,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Nov 14:</b><br>Ray Bradbury, <i>Fahrenheit 451</i>, first limited edition bound in Johns-Manville Quinterra, New York, 1953. $7,000 to $10,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Nov 14: 19th & 20th Century Literature</b>
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Nov 14:</b> Benjamin Graham, <i>The Intelligent Investor</i>, first edition, in original dust jacket, New York, 1949. $4,500 to $6,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Nov 14:</b> Anna Sewell, <i>Black Beauty</i>, first edition, inscribed, London, 1877. $7,000 to $10,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Nov 14:</b> Arthur Conan Doyle, <i>A Study in Scarlet</i>, first American edition, Philadelphia, 1890. $6,000 to $9,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Nov 14: 19th & 20th Century Literature</b>
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Nov 14:</b> James Fenimore Cooper, <i>The Last of the Mohicans</i>, first edition, two volumes, Philadelphia, 1826. $5,000 to $7,500.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Nov 14:</b> Amelia Earhart, <i>20 hrs. 40 mins. Our Flight in Friendship</i>, limited first edition, signed, New York, 1928. $4,000 to $6,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Nov 14:</b> Philip K. Dick, <i>World of Chance</i>, first edition, signed, London, 1956. $3,000 to $4,000.
  • <b>Sotheby’s New York: The Magnificent Botanical Library of D. F. Allen. October 26, 2017</b>
    <b>Sotheby’s NY, Oct. 26:</b> Redouté, Pierre Joseph, and Claude Antoine Thory. <i>Les Roses</I>. Paris: Firmin Didot, 1817–1824. Est. $225,000 to $325,000
    <b>Sotheby’s NY, Oct. 26:</b> Trew, Jakob Christoph. <i>Hortus Nitidissimis Omnen Per Annum Superbiens Floribus</i>… Nuremberg: Johann Joseph Fleischmann, 1750 [–1786]. Est. $200,000 to $300,000
    <b>Sotheby’s NY, Oct. 26:</b> Trew, Christoph Jakob, and Benedict Christian Vogel. <i>Plantæ Selectæ</i>…[Nuremberg:] 1750–1773; Supplement, [Augsburg:] 1790 [–1792]. Est. $200,000 to $300,000
    <b>Sotheby’s New York: The Magnificent Botanical Library of D. F. Allen. October 26, 2017</b>
    <b>Sotheby’s NY, Oct. 26:</b> Jacquin, Nikolaus Joseph von. <i>Plantarum Rariorum Horti Caesarei Schönbrunnensis Descriptiones Et Icones.</i>Vienna; London; Leiden, 1797–1804. Est. $180,000 to $250,000
    <b>Sotheby’s NY, Oct. 26:</b> Weinmann, Johann Wilhelm. <i>Phytanthoza Iconographia; Sive Conspectus Aliquot Millium, Tam Indigenarum Quam Exoticarum</i>… Regensburg, 1735–1737–1745. Est. $120,000 to $180,000

Rare Book Monthly

Articles - June - 2014 Issue

A Market Adjusting to Auction Realizations

B06b2069-368d-47bc-b98f-54d3899631d1

A 19th century book sale at Sotheby's.

In the twelve years that the Americana Exchange has been covering book, manuscript, map and ephemera auctions around the world we have tracked explosions in the number of items listed on listing sites such as Amazon, Abe and Alibris and simultaneously seen a seismic increase in the number of lots offered and sold at auction.  For the listing sites the growth appears to be in the listings, for auctions the growth is in the lots sold.

 

What too often happens with the online listings is the creation of impressions of endless quantities and, for long-term observers, confirmation of little movement.  That does not put off casual buyers but I believe serious collectors are appropriately dissuaded.  Material that is listed for a long time is subject to the suspicion it is overpriced.

 

Because of the scale and frequency of auctions serious buyers who use auction records these days quickly see estimated frequency of re-appearance as well as synthetic price estimations and can compare these values with online prices.  When the comparisons are in line buyers pursue the best listed copies.  When the prices on listing sites are much higher than auction estimates and the probability of reappearance is reasonably short would-be buyers are driven toward auction purchases.

 

So how do we know this?

 

We don’t know absolutely but the anecdotal information is compelling.

 

The number of auctions in the books, manuscripts, maps and ephemera fields has been increasing at a compound rate of 9% a year for the past 10 years, the number of lots offered by 15%.  The median value of auction lots has declined by 20%, much of the decline accounted for by Heritage’s weekly sales of inexpensive material and RR Auction’s higher priced but voluminous sales.  Mike Stillman recently calculated that, these two houses aside, median realizations rose by 7% in 2013 over 2012.  With them included the median declined by 7%.  Material is leaking into the market because owners have concluded they have to sell it.  Overall sales in dollars over the past decade increased by 8% annually, from $257 to $623 million.  At the current rate of increase the auction market will reach a billion dollars in 6 years, at a rate of 10% in 5 years, in three years if the compound rate is 17%.  The shift to auction purchases has been accelerating and I expect we’ll approach the billion dollar level in three years.

 

There are various reasons for this acceleration.  The number of houses is increasing and the number of sales conducted annually by the individual houses also increasing.  Auctions, not so long ago, were random and somewhat unpredictable events.  Today auctions occur with stunning regularity.  In the month of May just concluded 34,000 lots were offered, this month [June ‘14] 54,000.  There are 125 events or 4 a day.

 

Over the past quarter century we have seen a steady decline in dealer shops and a further drop in book fairs.  The number of dealer catalogues issued has also declined.  Institutions and collectors have been forced to look elsewhere and we can see where they are buying.

 

Buyers have been forced into the rooms by the decline of shops and inertia on the listing sites that is drawing both sellers and buyers into the auction rooms.  These circumstances have permitted the auctions to reach a scale now where they are, with some exceptions, the market.

 

Markets always, if sometimes slowly, transform.  The books, manuscripts, maps and ephemera [or perhaps more aptly called the Works on Paper] field has been in slow transition for decades and in quick transition for the past ten years.  WOP is today auction driven and it appears the trend will gain further force in the years ahead.


Posted On: 2014-06-03 19:53
User Name: Fattrad1

Well, we opened a shop just last year, so buyers do have alternatives. And, unless one is able to preview the items in person, I have been somewhat disappointed in the condition of purchases from one auction house.


Posted On: 2014-06-06 17:15
User Name: pazzo1

While, obviously, there is truth buried in here, it seems more than a little disingenuous for a site selling access to auction records to be me promoting the notion that auction records are the sole barometer of price. I mean, I get it - there are a lot more collectors than dealers and you, like the auctions, would like to sell to THEM instead of all of us boring dealers, but a little subtlety would be appreciated while you usher us out the door.


Rare Book Monthly

  • <b>Announcing a new Books for Sale platform hosted by Biblio!</b>
    <b>List your books simultaneously on Rare Book Hub and Biblio!</b>
  • <b>Sotheby’s London: Fine Autograph Letters and Manuscripts from a Distinguished Private Collection. Part I: Music. 26 October 2017</b>
    <b>Sotheby’s London Oct 26:</b> Beethoven, Ludwig van. Autograph Manuscript of the Canon "Ewig Dein" Woo 161, signed at the end ("...[Ewig] Dein...Freund Ludwig Van Beethowen"). Est. £120,000 to £150,000
    <b>Sotheby’s London Oct 26:</b> Brahms, Johannes. Autograph Manuscript of the "Geistliches Wiegenlied", Op.91 No.2, for Contralto, Viola And Piano, the original version of 1864, signed and inscribed at the end by the composer. Est. £200,000 to £250,000
    <b>Sotheby’s London Oct 26:</b> Chopin, Frédéric. Autograph Manuscript of the Opening of the Étude Op.25 No.2, in A-Flat Major, signed and dated ("Paris Ce 28 Avril F. Chopin"). Est. £100,000 to £150,000
    <b>Sotheby’s London: Fine Autograph Letters and Manuscripts from a Distinguished Private Collection. Part I: Music. 26 October 2017</b>
    <b>Sotheby’s London Oct 26:</b> Haydn, Joseph. Autograph Letter Signed ("Jos Haydn[Paraph]"), to the Baden Choirmaster Anton Stoll, 30 July 1802. Est. £20,000 to £30,000
    <b>Sotheby’s London Oct 26:</b> Verdi, Giuseppe. Autograph Working Manuscript of a scene from Ernani. Est. £100,000 to £150,000
    <b>Sotheby’s London Oct 26:</b> Verdi, Giuseppe. Highly Important Series of Thirty-Six Autograph Letters Signed to The Librettist Salvadore Cammarano, written between 1844 And 1851, the greater part unpublished and unrecorded. Est. £250,000 to £300,000
  • <b>Results from Bonhams’ sale of <i>Fine Books & Manuscripts Featuring Exploration and Travel</i></b>
    <b>Bonhams, Sep. 26:</b> Columbus. De Insulis nuper in mari Indico repertis. Basel, 1494. SOLD for $751,500
    <b>Bonhams, Sep. 26:</b> Cook in Tahiti. [Playbill]. [Germany, c.1840.] SOLD for $6,250
    <b>Bonhams, Sep. 26:</b> Aa, Pieter van der. Naaukeurige versameling der gedenk-waardigste zee en land-reysen. Leyden, 1706-8. SOLD for $35,000
    <b>Bonhams, Sep. 26:</b> Dürer. Underweysung der messung [and two more]. Nuremberg, 1525-8. SOLD for $175,000
    <b>Bonhams, Sep. 26:</b> Cortes, Hernan. A Pleito signed by Antonio de Mendoza in the case of Hernan Cortes. 1542. SOLD for $8750
    <b>Results from Bonhams’ <i>The Air and Space Sale</i></b>
    <b>Bonhams, Sep. 27:</b> Russian Kholod 5D67 HFL Rocket Engine. SOLD for $25,000
    <b>Bonhams, Sep. 27:</b> Neil Armstrong Apollo Era Training Glove. SOLD for $50,000
    <b>Bonhams, Sep. 27:</b> Full Scale Sputnik-1 EMC/EMI Lab Model. SOLD for $847,500
    <b>Bonhams, Sep. 27:</b> SOLRAD GREB Spy Satellite Engineering Dummy. SOLD for $10,000
    <b>Bonhams, Sep. 27:</b> Soviet LK-3 Lunar Lander Model. SOLD for $25,000
  • <b>Sotheby’s Paris: Books & Manuscripts. 30 October 2017</b>
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris, Oct. 30:</b> MARCEL PROUST. Du côté de chez Swann. Grasset, 1913. First edition. One of 5 copies on Japan paper, inscribed by the author to Louis Brun. Est. €400,000 - 600,000
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris, Oct. 30:</b> FRENCH REVOLUTION 1793. Déclaration des droits de l’Homme. 2,55 x 1,30m.A poster of the 1793 version, with hand-colored highlights. Unique copy. Est. €100,000 - 150,000
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris, Oct. 30:</b> GIAMBATTISTA PIRANESI. Vedute di Roma, 1748-1775. 107 etchings. An exceptional copy. printed and bound before 1780. Est. €50,000 - 80,000
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris, Oct. 30:</b> SADE. Autograph annotations by Sade facing 12 erotic drawings for Juliette. Est. €40,000 – 60,000

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