• <b>Christie’s London, Nov. 27:</b> [Peter I, Tsar]. <i>Simboly i emblemata ukazom i blagopovedenii imperatora Petra Alekseevicha [Symbola et emblemata jussu atque auspiciis Petri Alexeidis].</i> Amsterdam, 1705. £30,000 to £40,000
    <b>Christie’s London, Nov. 27:</b> Charlemagne, Adolf. Benefice d'Adieu de Madame Naptal. [St Petersburg: 16th February 1873]. £30,000 to £40,000
    <b>Christie’s London, Nov. 27:</b> [Military. Album.] [An album of drawings of weapons and their accessories, drawn from nature by the Second Cadets Corps.] St Petersburg, 1800. £100,000 to £150,000
    <b>Christie’s London, Nov. 27:</b> Pushkin, Alexander. <i>Evgenii Onegin.</i> St Petersburg: Dep. of Public Education, 1825-1832. £100,000 to £150,000
    <b>Christie’s London, Nov. 27:</b> Sumarokov, Pavel. <i>Dosugi krymskogo sud’i ili vtoroe puteshestvie v Tavridu. [The Leisure of a Crimean Judge or a Second Tour to Tauris].</i> St Petersburg: Imperial Press, 1803-5. £50,000 to £80,000
  • <center><b>Ketterer Rare Books<br>Auction on November 25th</b>
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, November 25:</b> Fust-Schöffer-Bibel from Gutenberg-Press, 1462. Est: € 1,000,000
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, November 25:</b><br>J. W. Weinmann, <i>Phytanthoza-Iconographia,</i> 1735-45. Est: € 60,000
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, November 25:</b><br>O. Kokoschka, <i>Die träumenden Knaben,</i> 1917. Est: € 10,000
    <center><b>Ketterer Rare Books<br>Auction on November 25th</b>
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, November 25:</b><br>Z. Lilius, <i>Orbis breviarium,</i> 1493. <br>Est: € 10,000
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, November 25:</b> <i>Gazette du Bon Ton,</i> 1912-22.<br>Est: € 14,000
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, November 25:</b><br>M. Chagall, <i>Daphnis & Chloé,</i> 1961. Est: € 100,000
    <center><b>Ketterer Rare Books<br>Auction on November 25th</b>
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, November 25:</b><br>C. Ptolemaeus, <i>Geographie,</i> 1513.<br>Est: € 100,000
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, November 25:</b><br>E. L. Kirchner, <i>Umbra vitae,</i> 1924.<br>Est: € 6,000
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, November 25:</b><br>J. Miró, <i>Midi le trèfle blanc,</i> 1968. Est: € 2,000
    <center><b>Ketterer Rare Books<br>Auction on November 25th</b>
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, November 25:</b> Clemens V., <i>Constitutiones,</i> 1471.<br>Est: € 14,000
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, November 25:</b><br>C. Gesner, <i>Tierbuch, Vogelbuch, Fischbuch,</i> 1563-81. Est: € 5,000
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, November 25:</b><br>J. Itten, <i>Utopia,</i> 1921. Est: € 2,000
  • <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 10:</b><br>Dr. Seuss, pen, ink & watercolor, calendar illustration, Thomas D. Murphy Company, 1937. $10,000 to $15,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 10:</b> Georges Lepape, <i>Sur la Terrasse,</i> gouache & pencil, cover for <i>Vogue,</i> 1930. $8,000 to $12,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 10:</b> Charles Dana Gibson, <i>The Coming Game, Yale vs. Vassar,</i> pen & ink, for <i>Life</i> magazine, 1895. $2,000 to $3,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 10:</b><br>H.A. Rey, color pencil, charcoal, watercolor & gouache, for <i>Rafi et les 9 singes,</i> 1939. $10,000 to $15,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 10:</b> Ernest H. Shepard, pen & ink, for Kenneth Grahame’s <i>Bertie’s Escapade,</i> 1949. $10,000 to $15,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 10:</b> Charles Schulz, <i>The Biggest Star Measured So Far,</i> ink & wash, original <i>Peanuts</i> cartoon, published 1961. $8,000 to $12,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 10:</b> Saul Steinberg, <i>12 Biographies, A to B,</i> pen & ink with collage, final illustration in his book <i>The Labyrinth,</i> 1960. $12,000 to $18,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 10:</b><br>Jo Mielziner, <i>A Streetcar Named Desire,</i> watercolor, graphite & gouache, first color study for the award-winning 1947 production. $7,000 to $10,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 10:</b> Charles Addams, <i>Nevermore,</i> watercolor & ink, for <i>The New Yorker,</i> 1973. $12,000 to $18,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 10:</b> James Montgomery Flagg, <i>I Should Worry,</i> watercolor, gouache & graphite, cover for <i>Judge</i> magazine, 1914. $5,000 to $7,500.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 10:</b> Edward Gorey, <i>Swan Lake, Hunters/Siegfried, Van Rothbart,</i> watercolor, pen & ink, costume designs, 1975. $8,000 to $12,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 10:</b> Ludwig Bemelmans, <i>Sketch for Madeline,</i> gouache & ink. $6,000 to $9,000.

Auction Update Review

Nopreview

Action Trends Updated: Reality

A week ago we updated the auction trend charts.  They tell an interesting story:

December is almost always a positive month for book auctions.  The best material often comes out in the fourth quarter and it’s bound to achieve high prices even if these prices are less than some consignors hope. The median price increased $20 from the October low of $342 but was still well below the $378 median a year earlier.  As the 12 Month Moving Average of Median Auction Prices chart shows auction realizations are still caught in the downward trend that dates from February 2008.

The change in Year to Year Change in 12 Month Moving Average however also suggests that the downward trend is leveling off as the difference in year to year comparisons by month is moving back to zero.  Before the chart can go positive it has to first escape negative year-to-year comparisons.  This aspect looks better although these year-to-year comparisons are getting easier because last year was a weak year.  This year’s comparison is still negative but approaching “net no change.”

The sell-through rate remains mired at 68%, an unhealthy level that’s about 7% below the average of the past ten years.  This suggests that reserves and buyer willingness to bid are probably about 10% apart.  Said another way the minimum prices buyers are willing to pay are, on average, about 10% below current low estimates.  Consignors would do well to listen carefully to their auction houses if they suggest lower reserves.  Sending something into the rooms means the consignor wants to sell.  Not selling in 2011 and then trying again next year doesn’t appear, based on the trends, to be a moneymaking strategy.  Too much material is in the wings.  The selling venues are going to get crowded.

With respect to the current market it is possible to be proactive.   Both PBA and New England Auctions recently included images in their recent auction postings on AE.  This can only help.  We have long provided “current valuation” estimates and recently added probability of reappearance calculations.  This month we are adding ‘tracking’ which in time will fundamentally alter realizations by bringing natural buyers [collectors and institutions] and sellers together on the simplest and most logical basis:  self interest

In the February issue of AE Monthly we’ll have a story:  Where have you been all my life? that explains it.

  • <b>Bonhams, Dec. 5:</b> SHAKESPEARE, WILLIAM. <i>Macbeth: A Tragedy.</i> London, 1673. FIRST SEPARATE AND FIRST QUARTO EDITION. THE CHARLTON HESTON COPY. $80,000 to $120,000.
    <b>Bonhams, Dec. 5:</b> HEMINGWAY, ERNEST. <i>In Our Time.</i> Paris, 1924. FIRST EDITION, PRESENTATION COPY. $20,000 to $30,000.
    <b>Bonhams, Dec. 5:</b> HAWTHORNE, NATHANIEL. <i>Fanshawe, A Tale.</i> Boston, 1828. FIRST EDITION OF AUTHOR'S FIRST BOOK. $20,000 to $30,000.
    <b>Bonhams, Dec. 5:</b> THOREAU, HENRY DAVID. <i>Walden; Or, Life in the Woods.</i> Boston, 1854. FINE COPY OF THE FIRST EDITION. $10,000 to $15,000.
    <b>Bonhams, Dec. 5:</b> SHAKESPEARE, WILLIAM. <i>Comedies, Histories, and Tragedies.</i> London, 1685. THE FOURTH FOLIO, Brewster/Bentley issue. $20,000 to $30,000.
    <b>Bonhams, Dec. 5:</b> STEIG, WILLIAM. Original maquette and 58 finished drawings for <i>The Agony in the Kindergarten,</i> one of Steig's most important books. $10,000 to $15,000.
    <b>Bonhams, Dec. 5:</b> VERNE, JULES. <i>A Journey to the Centre of the Earth.</i> New York & London, 1872. FIRST EDITION, RARE AMERICAN ISSUE, with Scribner & Welford cancel title. $5,000 to $8,000.
    <b>Bonhams, Dec. 5:</b> KING, STEPHEN. <i>Carrie.</i> New York, 1974. INSCRIBED FIRST EDITION, OF AUTHOR'S FIRST BOOK. $1,200 to $1,800.
    <b>Bonhams, Dec. 4:</b> APPLE MACINTOSH PROTOTYPE. 1983. The earliest known Macintosh with "Twiggy" drive, one of only two known working machines. $120,000 to $180,000.
    <b>Bonhams, Dec. 4:</b> PLATO. <i>Timaeus</i> [AND] <i>Critias</i> [from Ficini's 1484 Opera]. A LANDMARK OF SCIENTIFIC THOUGHT. $80,000 to $120,000.
    <b>Bonhams, Dec. 4:</b> LOVELACE, AUGUSTA ADA. Sketch of the Analytical Engine Invented by Charles Babbage Esq. London, 1843. FIRST EDITION, JOURNAL ISSUE, MOST IMPORTANT PAPER IN EARLY DIGITAL COMPUTING. $15,000 to $20,000.
    <b>Bonhams, Dec. 4:</b> APPLE-1 COMPUTER. Signed by Steve Wozniak, used in development of Apple II. $200,000 to $300,000.
    <b>Bonhams, Dec. 4:</b> DARWIN, CHARLES. 1809-1882. <i>On the Origin of Species By Means of Natural Selection.</i> London, 1859. FIRST EDITION. $80,000 to $120,000.
  • <center><b>Forum Auctions<br>Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works<br>on Paper including Books from The Collection of The Garden Ltd<br>November 21, 2019</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Nov. 21:</b> Bohr (Niels). <i>On the Constitution of Atoms and Molecules,</i> first edition, presentation copy, offprint 1913. £20,000 to £30,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, Nov. 21:</b> Shakespeare's Falstaff.- Henry V & Sir John Fastolf. Indenture agreement appointing Fastolf as Keeper of the Bastille of St Anthony at Paris, manuscript in French, 1421. £10,000 to £15,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, Nov. 21:</b> World.- Purchas (Samuel). <i>Purchas his Pilgrimes. In Five Books...,</i> 5 vol., first edition, 7 folding engraved maps, contemporary calf, by William Stansby for Henrie Fetherstone, 1625-26. £20,000 to £30,000
    <center><b>Forum Auctions<br>Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works<br>on Paper including Books from The Collection of The Garden Ltd<br>November 21, 2019</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Nov. 21:</b> Book of Hours.- Use of Rouen, manuscript on vellum, in Latin and French, illuminated with 14 full-page miniatures by the workshop or follower of the Maitre de l'Echevinage, Rouen, 1480s. £20,000 t0 £30,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, Nov. 21:</b> Giese (Raban, ?scholar and medical doctor). Album Amicorum of drawing on his travels and acquaintances in Europe 1618-21, 134 watercolour illustrations including c. 60 professional miniatures, 1618-39. £30,000 to £40,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, Nov. 21:</b> Jones (David). 14 Autograph Letters signed, 1952-68; and a small quantity of ephemera (sm. qty). £6,000 to £8,000
    <center><b>Forum Auctions<br>Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works<br>on Paper including Books from The Collection of The Garden Ltd<br>November 21, 2019</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Nov. 21:</b> Constable (John). Various Subjects of Landscape, Characteristic of English Scenery, signed presentation inscription from Constable, 1833. £6,000 to £8,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, Nov. 21:</b> Rembrandt van Rijn (1606-1669). The Descent from the Cross: Second Plate, etching and engraving, 1633. £6,000 to £8,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, Nov. 21:</b> Salvin (Francis Henry) and William Brodrick. <i>Falconry in the British Isles,</i> second edition, William Brodrick's copy with 3 original watercolours by him, 1873. £8,000 to £12,000
    <center><b>Forum Auctions<br>Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works<br>on Paper including Books from The Collection of The Garden Ltd<br>November 21, 2019</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Nov. 21:</b> China.- Helman (Isidore Stanislas Henri). <i>Suite des seize estampes representant les conquetes de l'Empereur de la Chine,</i> 1783-88. £10,000 to £15,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, Nov. 21:</b> Pratt (Edward Roger, 1789-1863). Album of 28 watercolours and other works on paper from a journey to ancient sites and monuments in the Mediterranean, [c.1830 and later]. £3,000 to £5,000