After a very strong auction market in 2025, we’re projecting the number of collectible paper auctions will reach 4,380 in 2026.

 

A year ago (2024), it was big news when collectible paper auctions reached 3,000 auctions in a single year. A year later we’re approaching 4,000. What’s going on?  The simple answer is that the world of collectible paper has become primarily electronic and the ways to buy and sell are quickly evolving.

 

Over the past 10 years, the number of auctions Rare Book Hub followed exploded from 1,357 (2016) to become what we now expect this year (2025) will end up being 3,850+. Over that ten-year period the number of lots posted increased an average 11.53% per year while the annual rates varied widely.

 

Nine of the past 10 years saw year to year growth.  This past year we saw the greatest percentage increase; 28.96%. Five of the past 5 years saw 20%+ growth.

 

		Auctions	Prct =/-
1	2025	3852	28.96
2	2024	2987	21.18
3	2023	2465	5.43
4	2022	2338	1.01
5	2021	2307	23.83
6	2020	1863	12.64
7	2019	1654	17.39
8	2018	1409	4.22
9	2017	1352	-0.37
10	2016	1357	1.01
11	2015	1342
			11.53%

 

 

There are two questions; What’s driving the change, and how will 2026 do?

 

What’s driving the change?  It’s market clarity. What are my books worth is a common question, and it can be easily answered. Once known, sellers focus on price or speed. Artful advocates wonder how to achieve both.

 

The case for an average year in 2026 is based on the average increase for the past decade was 11%. What’s will be different?

1. The Federal Reserve has been by chaired by Jerome Powell. By mid-year someone new will take his place.  The current American administration demands obedience. A weak chairman will undermine the dollar, inappropriately cutting rates, losing control over inflation. The damage won’t become clear until mid-2027 so the auction market should be okay during 2026.
2. The pump is primed. The auctions have been doing well and will be looking for continuing growth.
3. Consignors are inherently cautious but have seen auction valuations for collectible paper have been steady even as the volume of auctions and lots have exploded. They will continue to feed the market.
4. The wild card; politics. It may affect bidding enthusiasm.
5. The hidden factor. There are many high value categories. They do not march in lock step.  When big lots fail whatever the category, the plaudits moan. Damage in one category may cast a dark spell on others. Some believe collectibles are a confidence game. Fortunately, collectible paper while it’s a billion-dollar business at the auction level, it’s quite small by comparison to art. The high lot volume and relatively low estimates of typical collectible paper lots mean bidders/buyers have many choices. If you are a player, we expect to cover 12 auctions a day. That means 365 x 12 equals 4,380 events.

 

As well, my sense is that we’re beginning to attract a somewhat younger audience (35-50) that is finding the ability to personally define subjects of personal interest, then follow specialist dealers and track a dozen auctions a day worldwide is becoming the everyday norm for the next generation of collectors.

 

We’re living in the new world. Be healthy, be well.