Rare Book Monthly

Articles - December - 2015 Issue

The Inevitable Transition from Paper to Electronic Books May Not Be So Inevitable After All

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Trends in books sales, courtesy of Association of American Publishers.

Recently released data from book and publisher organizations in the U.S. and Canada reveal some surprising results. The inevitable transition from print and paper to electronic impulses and e-readers may not be quite so inevitable after all. The rapid transition of a few years ago seems to have stalled. There may even be some slight backtracking, though essentially it appears the shift has flat-lined.

 

Normally, considerations involving new books are not topics for a website devoted to rare and antiquarian books. However, to those concerned about where the next generation of collectors will arise, sales of new books do matter. Many collectors collect that which they know, and especially that which they knew in their youth. Those raised reading digital imprints on the screens of Kindles and iPhones are less than ideal prospects for book collecting later. If you didn't like printed books when you were young, why would you want to collect them when you are older?

 

According to figures recently released by the Association of American Publishers, eBook sales for the first half of 2015, compared to the same period a year earlier, were down by 10.3%. We would caution against reading too much into this number. It doesn't mean eBooks are about to disappear. There has been some up and down over the past few years in the category. Last year, for whatever reason, there was a huge spike in children's and young adults' books pushing up eBook numbers. Much of that increase was given back this year. There was also a dip of 11% in the sale of hardcover books this year. However, what we do notice is that, after several years of rapid growth, the sales of eBooks essentially have become flat. The same is true of hardcover books.

 

On the other hand, sales grew substantially in the category of mass market and paperback books. Paperback sales were up by 12.5% over last year. This number was particularly notable as sales of paperbacks had been steadily declining for years. This was a clear reversal of direction. What we may be seeing here is something of a return to the paper format by those seeking a book convenient for reading. Despite the advent of electronic books, many people have continued to prefer books that can be handled, their pages opened. What we have not seen before is a sign that perhaps some who moved to an electronic format in the past, or are new/younger readers, also may prefer reading paper books.

 

Results from Canada were similar, although spikes were more flattened out in that market. Comparing 2015 to 2013, Booknet Canada (a non-profit organization designed to help the book trade) found a very slight decrease in eBooks' market share. It went from a hair over 17% of book sales to a hair under. Paperbacks saw a similar slight decline, while it was hardcovers that saw a small increase in market share. The Canadian study also looked at library visitors. They found 11% of library visitors in 2015 borrowed an eBook, down from 12% in 2012. The percent of visitors borrowing a printed book remained steady at 74%. Again, it showed the printed format at least holding its own.

 

Interestingly, while the Canadian study saw an even to slight increase in the percentage of physical books being sold, it still found a large increase in the percentage of them being purchased electronically. It reported online sales have "increased drastically since 2013." The percentage of books purchased online rose from 29% to 45% in just two years. Chain stores, discount stores, and book stores, the three biggest other selling venues, all saw their shares of sales decline.

 

Recently reported sales figures from two major publishers seem to confirm the softness in eBook sales. HarperCollins reported a decline in digital sales in the third quarter of 2015 vs. the same quarter last year of 11.8%. The figure for Simon & Schuster was 10.7%. Digital sales include audio books, but their sales appear to be holding up well. The CEO of Simon & Schuster pointed out that there are other factors present, such as a change in the product offered year to year. They aren't too concerned about the decline, at least not yet.

 

Again, it is too early to draw any drastic conclusions. Trends may have stalled, rather than been broken. Still, for those who love books, and by this we mean bound paper, physical objects, it is a gratifying development. Conventional wisdom about the death of books may be greatly exaggerated. Another generation may yet choose to fill its bookshelves with books, rather than broken old Kindles, Nooks, and iPhones.

 

Rare Book Monthly

  • <center><b>Doyle<br>Fine Literature<br>September 30</b>
    <b>Doyle, Fine Literature:</b> WHITMAN, WALT. <i>Leaves of Grass.</i> First Edition. $150,000 to $250,000.
    <b>Doyle, Fine Literature:</b> MILNE, A.A. and SHEPARD, E.H. <i>Now We Are Six.</i> $10,000 to $15,000.
    <b>Doyle, Fine Literature:</b> HEMINGWAY, ERNEST. <i>A Farewell to Arms.</i> $7,000 to $10,000.
    <b>Doyle, Fine Literature:</b> NABOKOV, VLADIMIR. <i>Lolita.</i> First American Edition. $5,000 to $8,000.
    <center><b>Doyle<br>Fine Literature<br>September 30</b>
    <b>Doyle, Fine Literature:</b> RAND, AYN. <i>Atlas Shrugged.</i> $3,000 to $5,000.
    <b>Doyle, Fine Literature:</b> STEINBECK, JOHN. <i>To a God Unknown.</i> First Edition. $1,500 to $2,500.
    <b>Doyle, Fine Literature:</b> WELLS, H.G. <i>The Works of H.G. Wells.</i> $4,000 to $6,000.
    <center><b>We Invite You to Consign!<br>Rare Books, Autographs & Maps</b>
  • <center><b>Hindman Auctions<br>Selections from the Library of<br>Gerald and Barbara Weiner<br>Live and Online<br>October 8, 2020 / 10am CT</b>
    <b>Hindman Auctions, Oct. 8:</b> DARWIN, Charles Robert. <i>On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection.</i> London: W. Clowes and Sons for John Murray, 1859. [With] autograph note signed. $60,000 to $80,000.
    <b>Hindman Auctions, Oct. 8:</b> [FINE PRESS & LIVRE D'ARTISTE]. -- [KELMSCOTT PRESS]. CHAUCER, Geoffrey. <i>The Works ... now newly imprinted.</i> Edited by F.S. Ellis. Hammersmith: Kelmscott Press, 1896. $60,000 to $80,000.
    <b>Hindman Auctions, Oct. 8:</b> LAWRENCE, Thomas Edward. <i>Seven Pillars of Wisdom, a triumph.</i> [London: Privately Printed], 1926. $60,000 to $80,000.
    <center><b>Hindman Auctions<br>Selections from the Library of<br>Gerald and Barbara Weiner<br>Live and Online<br>October 8, 2020 / 10am CT</b>
    <b>Hindman Auctions, Oct. 8:</b> SHAKESPEARE, William. <i>Mr. William Shakespear's Comedies, Histories, and Tragedies…</i> London, Printed for H. Herringman, E. Brewster, R. Chiswell, and R. Bentley, 1685. $60,000 to $80,000.
    <b>Hindman Auctions, Oct. 8:</b> AUDUBON, John James. <i>The Birds of America…</i> [1839-] 1840-1844. -- AUDUBON, John James and John BACHMAN. <i>The Quadrupeds of North America.</i> 1849-1854. $60,000 to $80,000.
    <b>Hindman Auctions, Oct. 8:</b> OGILBY, John, trans. [MONTANUS, Arnoldus]. <i>America: being the latest, and most Accurate Description of the New World…</i> London: Printed by the Author, 1671. $30,000 to $40,000.
    <center><b>Hindman Auctions<br>Selections from the Library of<br>Gerald and Barbara Weiner<br>Live and Online<br>October 8, 2020 / 10am CT</b>
    <b>Hindman Auctions, Oct. 8:</b> HOBBES, Thomas. <i>Leviathan, or The Matter, Forme, & Power of a Common-Wealth Ecclesiasticall and Civill.</i> London: printed for Andrew Crooke, 1651. $20,000 to $30,000.
    <b>Hindman Auctions, Oct. 8:</b> BLACKWELL, Elizabeth. <i>A Curious Herbal, containing Five Hundred Cuts of the most useful Plant which are now used in the Practice of Physick…</i> London: John Nourse, 1739. $15,000 to $20,000.
    <b>Hindman Auctions, Oct. 8:</b> MILTON, John. <i>Paradise Lost.</i> London: Printed by S. Simmons ... to be sold by T. Helder, 1669. $12,000 to $18,000.
    <center><b>Hindman Auctions<br>Selections from the Library of<br>Gerald and Barbara Weiner<br>Live and Online<br>October 8, 2020 / 10am CT</b>
    <b>Hindman Auctions, Oct. 8:</b> MALCOLM X. Typed letter signed ("Malcolm X"), to Alex Haley. Cairo, Egypt, 18 September 1964. " 1 page, 8vo. $6,000 to $8,000.
    <b>Hindman Auctions, Oct. 8:</b> TOLKIEN, John Ronald Reuel. Autograph letter signed (“JRRT”). To George Sayer, Oxford, 7 August 1952. 2 pages, 8vo, creased; morocco folding case. $4,000 to $6,000.
    <b>Hindman Auctions, Oct. 8:</b> WRIGHT, Frank Lloyd. Autograph manuscript signed ("Frank Lloyd Wright"), entitled "To the Countryside." N.p. [Taliesin?], [June 1926]. 2 pages, 4to, creased. $4,000 to $6,000.
  • <b>Swann Auction Galleries Oct 15:</b> Paul George Lawler, <i>San Francisco – Hawaii Overnight,</i> 1939. $10,000 to $15,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Oct 15:</b> Around the World, <i>North German Lloyd,</i> designer unknown, circa 1910. $800 to $1,200.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Oct 15:</b> Michael Rudolf Wening, <i>Siam,</i> circa 1920s. $2,000 to $3,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Oct 15:</b> Sigismunds Vidbergs, <i>Spend Your Holidays at the Wonderful Seaside of Riga,</i> circa 1925. $1,200 to $1,800.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Oct 15:</b> Jean Dupas, <i>“Where is this Bower Beside the Silver Thames?”</i> 1930. $15,000 to $20,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Oct 15:</b> Charles-Léonce Brossé, <i>Meeting d’Aviation, Nice,</i> 1910. $10,000 to $15,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Oct 15:</b> John Held Jr., <i>Nantucket,</i> 1925. $6,000 to $9,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Oct 15:</b> Seaverns W. Hilton, <i>Lewis and Clark, Northern Pacific,</i> 1920. $2,000 to $3,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Oct 15:</b> Fred Powis, <i>Jasper, Canadian National Railways.</i> $2,000 to $3,000.
  • <center><b>Arader Galleries<br>October Sale<br>October 10, 2020</b>
    <b>Arader Galleries, Oct. 10:</b> LA HARPE, Jean-Baptiste Benard de. 'CARTE NOUVELLE DE LA PARTIE DE L'OUEST DE LA LOUISIANNE'. $800,000 to $1,200,000.
    <b>Arader Galleries, Oct. 10:</b> AUDUBON, John James. Great Blue Heron, Plate 211. $250,000 to $350,000.
    <b>Arader Galleries, Oct. 10:</b> REDOUTE, Pierre-Joseph. Watercolor for plate 456: Bromella ananas (Cultivated Pineapple). $450,000 to $550,000.
    <b>Arader Galleries, Oct. 10:</b> COOK, Captain James. <i>A set of the three voyages comprising...</i> London: 1773-1785. $40,000 to $60,000.
    <b>Arader Galleries, Oct. 10:</b> KEY, Adrien Thomaszoon. Abraham Ortelius. Oil on Panel. $400,000 to $450,000.

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