• <b>Swann Auction Galleries Sep 29: Illustration Art</b>
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Sep 29:</b><br>Earl Moran, <i>Lady in the Light (Marilyn Monroe at Age 20),</i> oil, 1979.<br>$20,000 to $30,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Sep 29:</b><br>Man Ray, <i>La Femme Portative,</i> pen and ink, 1937. $15,000 to $20,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Sep 29:</b><br>Dr. Seuss, <i>Tadd and Todd,</i> ink and watercolor, published in Redbook, 1950. $12,000 to $18,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Sep 29: Illustration Art</b>
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Sep 29:</b><br>Charles Addams, <i>Noisy Neighbor,</i> watercolor, ink & wash, for The New Yorker, 1951. $10,000 to $15,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Sep 29:</b><br>Gilbert Gaul, <i>Battle of New Orleans,</i> oil. $8,000 to $12,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Sep 29:</b><br>Rockwell Kent, <i>Rockwell / Alaska MCMXVIII,</i> pen and ink, frontispiece for <i>Wilderness,</i> 1970.<br>$7,000 to $10,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Sep 29: Illustration Art</b>
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Sep 29:</b><br>Haddon Sundblom, <i>The Arrangement,</i> oil, published in Ladies' Home Journal, 1938. $6,000 to $9,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Sep 29:</b><br>Maurice Sendak, <i>Kiko’s Ferryboat,</i> pen, ink and watercolor, 1965. $5,000 to $7,500.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Sep 29:</b><br>Jack Kirby, <i>Captain America: The Rocks are Burning!,</i> ink over graphite, 1976. $5,000 to $7,500.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Sep 29: Illustration Art</b>
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Sep 29:</b><br>Arnold Lobel, <i>Frog and Toad Building a Snowman,</i> pencil, 1976.<br>$4,000 to $6,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Sep 29:</b><br>Garth Williams, <i>Pet and Bunny,</i> pencil, for <i>Little House on the Prairie,</i> 1953. $4,000 to $6,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Sep 29:</b><br>Ludwig Bemelmans, <i>Does Chef Find the Pheasant Pleasant?,</i> watercolor and ink, circa 1950s.<br>$4,000 to $6,000.
  • <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Leaves from<br>George Washington's Own Draft <br>of His first Inaugural Address. An Extraordinary Rarity!
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Declaration of Independence: Benjamin Tyler 1818 - First Print with Facsimile Signatures.
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Thomas Jefferson Signed Act of Contress Authorizing Alexander Hamilton to Complete Famous Portland Maine Lighthouse.
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Emanuel Leutze. Silk Flag Banner designed by Leutze, created by Tiffany & Co., and presented to Gen. John A. Dix, 1864.
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> The "greatest of early American maps … a masterpiece" (Corcoran). Thomas Holme.
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Lincoln Summons His Cabinet for a Historic Meeting to Discuss Compensated Emancipation.
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Albert Einstein. Autograph Letter Signed. Einstein Counsels His Son ... Meaning of Life.
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Normal Rockwell. Painting/Drawing Signed. Rockwell's "Barbeshop Quartet", 1936.
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Frederick Douglass. Autograph Letter Signed to unknown correspondent. Washington, D.C.
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Harry Truman. Autograph Manuscript Notebook for Kansas City Law School Night Class.
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Robert E. Lee. Autograph Letter Signed, June 11, 1782. Hours after the Battle of Culpeper Court House, Lee Escapes Again.
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> George Washington. Letter Signed, as Commander-in-Chief, Continental Army, to Elias Dayton, Headquarters, [Newburgh, N.Y.], June 11, 1782.
  • <b>19th Century Shop.</b> (DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION, Chicago, 1968). <i>Collection of papers of John M. Bailey, Chairman of the Democratic National Committee, concerning the convention</i>. Various places, 1968.
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> (ARMSTRONG, NEIL.) VERNE, JULES. <i>A Trip to the Moon.</i> New York: F. M. Lupton, September 9, 1893. Signed by Neil Armstrong, first man to walk on the moon.
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> KEY, FRANCIS SCOTT. <i>A Celebrated Patriotic Song, the Star Spangled Banner.</i> 1814.
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> [COLUMBUS, CHRISTOPHER, Amerigo Vespucci ..] Bernardus Albingaunensis .. Dialogo nuperrime edito Genue in 1512.
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> (WATKINS, TABER &c.). <i>An album of 32 photographs of the Yosemite and American West Various places</i>, c. 1890s
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> (BATTLE OF CONCORD.) <i>Powder horn used by Minuteman Oliver Buttrick at the Battle of Concord</i>, April 19, 1775.
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> (CIVIL WAR.) <i>An Extraordinary Confederate Photograph and Autograph Album of Dr. R. L. C. White</i>, 125 original mounted salt prints. 1859-61.
  • <b>Sotheby’s Paris: The Hunting Library of the Counts du Verne. 5 October.</b> The Largest Collection of Hunting and Falconry To Appear on the Market for the Last Thirty Years.
    <b>Sotheby's Paris Oct. 5:</b> Jacques du Fouilloux. <i>La Vénerie</i>. Poitiers, 1561. Est. €100.000 – 150.000
    <b>Sotheby's Paris Oct. 5:</b> Gaston Phébus. <i>Déduits de la chasse des bestes sauvaiges et des oyseaux de proye</i>. Paris, circa 1507. Est. €150.000 – 200.000
    <b>Sotheby's Paris Oct. 5:</b> Pierre et François de Gommer. <i>L’Autoursserie</i>. Chaalons, 1594. Est. €30.000 – 50.000
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris: The Hunting Library of the Counts du Verne. 5 October. The Largest Collection of Hunting and Falconry To Appear on the Market for the Last Thirty Years.
    <b>Sotheby's Paris Oct. 5:</b> Pierre Landry. <i>Quatre scènes de chasse à courre.</i> Paris, circa 1680. Est. €2.000 – 3.000
    <b>Sotheby's Paris Oct. 5:</b> Conte Henri de Vibraye - Baron Karl Reille. <i>La chasse à courre.</i> Paris, 1951. Est. €3.000 – 5.000
    <b>Sotheby's Paris Oct. 5:</b> Duc de Brissac - Paul Jouve. <i>Chasse.</i> Paris, 1956. Est. €30.000 – 50.000

Rare Book Monthly

Articles - June - 2009 Issue

A Market Under Pressure

12.mo

Market Weakness



By Bruce McKinney

The Books, Manuscripts and Ephemera market at auction, as evidenced by both declining prices and percentage of lots sold, continues to be under extreme pressure. In the rooms, the bubble that saw median lot price rise from $410 to $485 between October 2006 and January 2008 has now dropped back to $400 with no evidence to suggest the correction is over. Not so many decades ago auctions regularly sold 90% or more of lots offered. Over the past five years auctions have struggled to complete even 80%, as the percentage of lots sold fell from 78% to 70%. This has occurred because consignors are demanding higher reserves than bidders feel is justified. Many other lots sell at the consignor's reserve [their minimum acceptable bid] with only a single bidder up against the often hidden reserve. Consequently, many lots go unsold and the overall percentage of lots sold declines. Such an approach has the perverse effect of significantly distorting market value even as sales are recorded. As well, from 1999 to 2007 the Americana Exchange, while recording well over 1.5 million auction lots, recorded a 28% increase current valuation followed by a 20% reduction in 2008. The price index today is the same as 2003. During the same period the dollar's purchasing power declined by 17%.

While it is difficult to say what an acceptable 'sell' rate is, historically it's been much higher than it is today. When this weakness is factored in the numbers look less promising.

That said, auction houses are independent, make policies, describe material, and promote sales each in unique combinations and as a result achieve unique outcomes. In the AED auction indexes that we maintain and update monthly, sell through rates are established for both individual houses and the field as a whole. In these indexes 45% of the houses have consistently achieved sell through rates of at least 80%. This suggests that high reserves are a strategy for obtaining consignments and are employed by only about half of the houses.

Sell though rates overall have been declining for some time as the "12 Month Sell Through Moving Average" graph shows. During the July 2007 – January 2008 period the percentage of lots sold actually rose but for the period January 2004 to April 2009 the percentage of lots sold fell from 77% to 70%. These results are subject to interpretation.

The impact of "reserves" seems to be weighing heavily on the market. We know this because if 45% of the auction houses can consistently sell 80% of their lots we can assume the other houses could also if not for minimum prices they have agreed to impose [often secretly] upon bidders. Such reserves are not uncommon but when they cause auction sell-through rates to precipitously decline they are clearly interfering with the market's ability to reprice material appropriately. Of course when prices are rising few auction houses says no. In a down market it's particularly important to let the chips fall when demand is declining. We are in such a period today and the adjustment will be more protracted if prices are held artificially high. They will in time adjust and no auction house, while catering to consignors, can afford to alienate buyers with obscured reserves that mislead them into paying above market prices.

Rare Book Monthly

  • <b>Bonhams: Fine Books and Manuscripts. Sept. 21, 2016</b>
    <b>Bonhams Sept. 21:</b> WARREN, JOSEPH. Letter Signed ("Jos Warren") as Chairman of the Committee of Safety. Cambridge, MA, June 4, 1775.
    <b>Bonhams Sept. 21:</b> WHITMAN, WALT. Leaves of Grass. Brooklyn, NY: [for the Author], 1855.
    <b>Bonhams Sept. 21:</b> JEFFERSON, THOMAS. Printed Broadside Signed ("Th: Jefferson") as Secretary of State. Philadelphia, February 12, 1793.
    <b>Bonhams Sept. 21:</b> CELLINI, BENVENUTO. 1500-1571. Autograph Letter Signed ("Beto. Cellini"). [Florence, c.1566].
    <b>Bonhams: Fine Books and Manuscripts. Sept. 21, 2016</b>
    <b>Bonhams Sept. 21:</b> NAPOLEON BONAPARTE. Autograph Manuscript. [c.1795].
    <b>Bonhams Sept. 21:</b> DICKENS, CHARLES. Great Expectations. London: Chapman and Hall, 1861.
    <b>Bonhams Sept. 21:</b> REED, JOHN. To the Honourable House of Representatives of the Freemen of Pennsylvania this Map of the City and Liberties of Phiadelphia With the Catalog of Purchasers is Humbly Dedicated.... [Philadelphia]: engraved by James Smit
    <b>Bonhams Sept. 21:</b> ELIOT, THOMAS STEARNS. The Waste Land. New York: Boni and Liveright, 1922.
    <b>Bonhams: Exploration and Travel. Sept. 20, 2016</b>
    <b>Bonhams Sept. 20:</b> PTOLEMAEUS, CLAUDIUS. 2nd Century. Untitled Ptolemaic Map of the World. [Insculptum est per Johane Schnitzer de Armszheim.] [Ulm: Leinhart Holle, July 16, 1482.]
    <b>Bonhams Sept. 20:</b> HONDIUS, JODOCUS THE YOUNGER. 1597-1651; JOHANNES JANSSONIUS, PUBLISHER. 1588-1664; ADRIAAN METIUS, ASTRONOMER; & ABRAHAM GOOS, ENGRAVER. A Pair of Library Globes. Amsterdam: 1623, 1648.
    <b>Bonhams Sept. 20:</b> HAKLUYT, RICHARD. 1553-1616. The Principall Navigations, Voiages, and Discoveries of the English Nations, made by Sea or ouer Land, to the most remote and farthest distant Quarters of the earth at any time within...
    <b>Bonhams Sept. 20:</b> WARRE, HENRY JAMES, SIR. 1819-1898. Sketches in North America and the Oregon Territory. [London]: Dickinson & Co., [1848].
    <b>Bonhams Sept. 20:</b> SPEKE, JOHN HANNING. 1827-1864. Manuscript map, ["Sketch Map of Eastern Africa, Shewing the Various Routes travelled by the Expedition"], 230 x 255 mm, n.p., c.1858.

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