• <b>ALDE: May 30, 2018. Books by painters, original bindings, photography, prints and drawings, illustrated books.</b>
    <b>ALDE, May 30:</b> BRETON (André). <i>Arcane 17.</i> New York, Brentano's, 1944. One of the 25 first copies with the original etching signed by Roberto Matta. 6000 to 8000 €
    <b>ALDE, May 30:</b> HÉRON DE VILLEFOSSE (René). <i>La Rivière enchantée.</i> Paris, Bernard Klein, 1951. One of the 25 first copies on japon with an original watercolored drawing signed by Léonard Foujita. 60,000 to 80,000 €
    <b>ALDE, May 30:</b> ILIAZD. <i>Pirosmanachvili 1914.</i> Paris, Le Degré quarante et un, 1972. Dry point signed by Pablo Picasso. 5,000 to 6,000 €
    <b>ALDE: May 30, 2018. Books by painters, original bindings, photography, prints and drawings, illustrated books.</b>
    <b>ALDE, May 30:</b> JARRY (Alfred). <i>Ubu Roi.</i> Paris, Tériade, 1966. 13 lithographs by Joan Miró. 6,000 to 8,000 €
    <b>ALDE, May 30:</b> LEIRIS (Michel). <i>Vivantes cendres, innommées.</i> Paris, Jean Hugues, 1961. 13 original etchings by Alberto Giacometti. 12,000 to 15,000 €
    <b>ALDE, May 30:</b> MATISSE (Henri). <i>Jazz.</i> Paris, Tériade, 1947. 20 original pochoirs by Henri Matisse. 100,000 to 120,000 €
    <b>ALDE: May 30, 2018. Books by painters, original bindings, photography, prints and drawings, illustrated books.</b>
    <b>ALDE, May 30:</b> PAULHAN (Jean). <i>De Mauvais sujets.</i> Paris, Les Bibliophiles de l’Union Française, 1958. 10 etchings by Marc Chagall. 5,000 to 6,000 €
    <b>ALDE, May 30:</b> RONSARD (Pierre de). Layout for the book <i>Florilège des Amours.</i> Paris, Albert Skira, 1948. 128 lithographs, with many corrections by hand by Henri Matisse. 80,000 to 100,000 €
    <b>ALDE, May 30:</b> TING (Walasse). <i>1¢ life.</i> Bern, E.W. Kornfeld, 1964. One of the 100 deluxe copies with the 62 lithographs signed by the 28 artists. 15,000 to 20,000 €
    <b>ALDE: May 30, 2018. Books by painters, original bindings, photography, prints and drawings, illustrated books.</b>
    <b>ALDE, May 30:</b> SUGIMOTO (Hiroshi). <i>Time exposed.</i> Kyoto, Kyoto Shoin Co. Ltd., 1991. 51 offset lithographs. 10,000 to 12,000 €
    <b>ALDE, May 30:</b> SZAFRAN (Sam). Black and brown ink original drawing. 550 x 410 mm. 5,000 to 6,000 €
    <b>ALDE, May 30:</b> KIPLING (Rudyard). <i>La Chasse de Kaa.</i> Paris, Javal et Bourdeaux, 1930. 115 colored woodcuts by Paul Jouve. 5,000 to 6,000 €
  • <b>Chiswick Auctions: Modern First Editions, Illustrated Books & Limited Editions. May 30, 2018</b>
    <b>Chiswick Auctions, May 30:</b> Hammett (Dashiell). <i>The Maltese Falcon,</i> FIRST EDITION. A very good copy of this most influential detective fiction novel. £8,000 to £12,000
    <b>Chiswick Auctions, May 30:</b> Hemingway (Ernest). <i>In Our Time,</i> FIRST EDITION, NUMBER 137 OF 170 COPIES on Rives handmade paper. £15,000 to £18,000
    <b>Chiswick Auctions, May 30:</b> Hemingway (Ernest). <i>A Farewell to Arms,</i> FIRST EDITION, inscribed by the author to Mike Murphy, a Hemingway biographer and scholar. £4,000 to £6,000
    <b>Chiswick Auctions: Modern First Editions, Illustrated Books & Limited Editions. May 30, 2018</b>
    <b>Chiswick Auctions, May 30:</b> Kerouac (Jack). <i>On the Road,</i> FIRST EDITION, New York, Viking, 1957. £2,000 to £3,000
    <b>Chiswick Auctions, May 30:</b> Ransome (Arthur). <i>Swallows and Amazons,</i> FIRST EDITION, ownership inscription to half title. Only 2,000 copies of the first edition printed. £3,000 to £4,000
    <b>Chiswick Auctions, May 30:</b> Sewell (Anna). <i>Black Beauty: His Grooms and Companions. The Autobiography of a Horse. Translated from the original Equine,</i> FIRST EDITION, engraved frontispiece. £3,000 to £4,000
    <b>Chiswick Auctions: Modern First Editions, Illustrated Books & Limited Editions. May 30, 2018</b>
    <b>Chiswick Auctions, May 30:</b> Capa (Robert). <i>Omaha Beach D-Day, June 6th, 1944,</i> gelatine silver print, printed under the direct supervision of Cornell Capa, 40 x 50.5 cm. £3,000 to £5,000
    <b>Chiswick Auctions, May 30:</b> Cartier-Bresson (Henri). 'Loudres – Pilgrims Assemble', silver print, stamps and annotations on verso, very slight scratch, 170 x 240 mm, 1950. £2,000 to £3,000
    <b>Chiswick Auctions, May 30:</b> Carroll, Lewis [Dodgson, Charles Lutwidge]. <i>The Nursery Alice,</i> FIRST EDITION, a very rare inscribed, dedication copy. £8,000 to £10,000
    <b>Chiswick Auctions: Modern First Editions, Illustrated Books & Limited Editions. May 30, 2018</b>
    <b>Chiswick Auctions, May 30:</b> Potter (Beatrix). <i>The Tale of Peter Rabbit,</i> FIRST EDITION, FIRST PRINTING, limited to 250 copies [with] the FIRST PUBLISHED EDITION. £12,000 to £15,000
    <b>Chiswick Auctions, May 30:</b> Wells (H. G.). <i>War of the Worlds,</i> original Danish manuscript, the text written out in block script ink, with over 620 original drawings in ink and watercolour. £1,800 to £2,200
    <b>Chiswick Auctions, May 30:</b> Toulouse-Lautrec (Henri de).- Clemenceau (Georges). <i>Au Pied de Sinai,</i> NUMBER 104 OF 355 COPIES, with the suite of 10 lithographs by Henri de Toulouse-Lautrec in 2 states. £1,500 to £2,000
  • <b>19th Century Shop:</b> Charles Darwin on sexuality and the transmission of hereditary characteristics: Autograph Letter Signed to Lawson Tait. Down, 17 January [1877].
    <b>19th Century Shop:</b> MILTON, JOHN. <i>Paradise Lost. A Poem written in ten books.</i> London: 1667. A very rare example with the contemporary binding untouched and with a 1667 title page.
    <b>19th Century Shop:</b> Hamilton secures the ratification of the Constitution: <i>The Debates and Proceedings of the Convention of the State of New-York, assembled at Poughkeespsie, on the 17th June, 1788.</i>
    <b>19th Century Shop:</b> The social contract “Man is born free, and everywhere he is in chains”: ROUSSEAU, JEAN-JACQUES. <i>Principes du Droit Politique [Du Contract Social]</i>. Amsterdam: Michel Rey, 1762
    <b>19th Century Shop:</b> “The first English textbook on geometrical land-measurement and surveying”: BENESE, RICHARD. <i>This Boke Sheweth the Maner of Measurynge All Maner of Lande…</i>

Rare Book Monthly

Articles - July - 2006 Issue

For Printed Materials: The Probability of Appearance

Munselliana.photo

Joel Munsell: the fastidious bibliographer


By Bruce McKinney

It is becoming possible to estimate the print runs of perhaps 150,000 antiquarian items, whose printing histories were never recorded, based on formulas that compare detailed printing records provided by Joel Munsell to the number of copies found in the OCLC, appearances at auction and sightings on listing sites and eBay. The goal is a new statistical measure that projects "probability of appearance" for books and ephemera. The internet has made it possible for millions of items to be offered but what is the likelihood what you are looking for will show up? I think we can know.

Munsell's material, published over a fifty year period in the 19th century, covered an extensive range of subjects and was printed in formats that range from 8-page pamphlets to 400-page books. He documented his printing history and it comes down to us today as a basis for comparison to copies in institutional, auction and listing venues. He published a directory of 2,268 printings and documented a thousand items, published between 1834 and 1870, with bibliographic details and the quantities printed.

For book dealers, collectors, auction houses and libraries such information may in time become part of a printing's essential facts. The initial print run is but one factor in calculating "probability of appearance" but it is an essential one that combined with appearances in various databases, historical data and bibliographic details may make it possible to construct an index with implications for all collectible printed materials.

The theory is simple algebra and the objective to solve for the unknown. Munsell provides half the variables and modern databases and listing sites the other. In Munsell's case, with both sides known, we should be able to establish the range of variation with some precision and apply this range broadly to material that lacks the quantity printed but is otherwise bibliographically complete.

For this we owe a debt to Joel Munsell, the Albany, New York printer, who maintained extensive records of the various books and pamphlets he printed during his career. In Bibliotheca Munselliana: A Catalogue of the Books and Pamphlets issued from the Press of Joel Munsell from the year 1828 to 1870, he detailed 2,268 book and pamphlet printing jobs including the quantity printed for about 1,000 of them. Using the information he provides it's possible to compare his quantities with their appearances in library inventories, at auction and on listing sites. With these numbers we can estimate survival statistics and in time "probabilities of appearance."

In this article I examine Munsell's production for the period 1834 through 1840 for which he identifies 104 items. I then focus on 64, all books and pamphlets, for which he provides the quantities printed and compare these quantities to the number of copies found in the OCLC today. Let's take a look.

Rare Book Monthly

  • <b>Sotheby’s Books & Manuscripts<br>Marcel Proust – Collection Marie-Claude Mante<br>Auction Paris 24 May 2018</b>
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris, May 24:</b> Marc Chagall. <i>Daphnis & Chloé</i>. Paris, Tériade, 1961. 42 original lithographs. One of the 10 copies for the collaborators. 80,000-120,000 €
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris, May 24:</b> [Marcel Proust] — Gaston Gallimard. Very important letters to Marcel Proust. 1912-1922. 100,000-150,000 €
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris, May 24:</b> JESUITS. <i>Relation de ce qui s’est passé en la Nouvelle France en 1635</i> […] 1672. Period calf binding. Very rare set of letters about life in the French territories among warring Indian tribes. 12,000-18,000 €
    <b>Sotheby’s Books & Manuscripts<br>Marcel Proust – Collection Marie-Claude Mante<br>Auction Paris 24 May 2018</b>
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris, May 24:</b> Gustave Flaubert. <i>Madame Bovary</i>. Paris, Michel Lévy Frères, 1857. One of the few deluxe copies, with inscription to Adolphe Gaïffe and a letter. 30,000-50,000 €
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris, May 24:</b> A. von Humboldt. <i>Essai politique sur le Royaume de la Nouvelle Espagne.</i> Paris, 1811. Period binding. Complete with the large California/Mexico map. 10,000-15,000 €
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris, May 24:</b> [Affaire Dreyfus] — Georges Clemenceau. <i>Démosthène</i>. Paris, Plon-Nourrit et Cie, 1926. Exceptional copy with an inscription to Mathieu Dreyfus, Alfred Dreyfus’ brother. 8,000-<br>12,000 €
    <b>Sotheby’s Books & Manuscripts<br>Marcel Proust – Collection Marie-Claude Mante<br>Auction Paris 24 May 2018</b>
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris, May 24:</b> Guillaume Apollinaire. <i>Les trois Don Juan</i>. 1914. Unpublished inscription to Madeleine Pagès and 2 original drawings. 25,000-35,000 €
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris, May 24:</b> Marcel Duchamp. <i>L.H.O.O.Q. shaved</i>. [New York, 1965]. One of the 100 deluxe signed copies. With an autographed envelope. 15,000-20,000 €
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris, May 24:</b> Francis Bacon — Michel Leiris. <i>Miroir de la tauromachie</i>. [Paris], Daniel Lelong, [1990]. With 4 signed lithographs. 40,000-60,000 €
    <b>Sotheby’s Books & Manuscripts<br>Marcel Proust – Collection Marie-Claude Mante<br>Auction Paris 24 May 2018</b>
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris, May 24:</b> Gilbert & George. <i>The Red Sculpture Album</i>. [Londres, Gilbert & George], 1975. One of the 100 existing copies, signed by both of the artists, comprised of 11 original photographs. 10,000-15,000 €
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris, May 24:</b> Pablo Picasso — Honoré de Balzac. <i>Chef-d’œuvre inconnu</i>. Paris, Ambroise Vollard, 1931. One of the 65 deluxe copies on Japan paper, with an extra suite of the etchings. 35,000-<br>45,000 €
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris, May 24:</b> Marcel Proust. <i>Les Sources sur Loir</i>. Ca 1907-1908. Handwritten manuscript. Rough draft of one of the more beautiful passages of Swann’s Way. 30,000-50,000 €
  • <b>Forum Auctions: Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works on Paper. May 31, 2018</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, May 31:</b> Simcoe (John Graves). Plan of the Province of Upper Canada with part of the Adjacent Countries, manuscript map… with numerous contemporary annotations. £6,000 to £8,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, May 31:</b> Ramusio (Giovanni Battista). <i>Delle Navigationi et Viaggi,</i> 3 vol., mixed edition, 3 double-page engraved maps and 7 folding woodcut maps, Venice, Giunti, 1613. £6,000 to £8,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, May 31:</b> Dickens (Charles). <i>A Christmas Carol,</i> first edition, first issue, Chapman & Hall, 1843. £6,000 to £8,000
    <b>Forum Auctions: Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works on Paper. May 31, 2018</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, May 31:</b> Book of Hours. Hours of the Virgin [Use of Rome] in Latin, miniature illuminated manuscript on vellum with 6 full-page miniatures and 6 large initials with borders, Flanders, [2nd quarter of 15th century]. £6,000 to £8,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, May 31:</b> G.K. Chesterton archive. Collection of poems, drawings, letters and cards sent to Enid Simon, 1920s. £6,000 to £8,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, May 31:</b> Pasternak (Boris). <i>Doktor Zhivago</i> original typescript, 2 vol., with manuscript corrections and insertions by the author, the George Katkov copy, c.1956. £100,000 to £150,000
    <b>Forum Auctions: Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works on Paper. May 31, 2018</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, May 31:</b> Tolkien (J.R.R.). <i>The Hobbit,</i> first edition, first impression, 1937. £20,000 to £30,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, May 31:</b> Milton (John). <i>Paradise Lost & Paradise Regain'd,</i> 2 vol., one of 10 copies printed on vellum, Cresset Press, 1931. £8,000 to £12,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, May 31:</b> Electricity and the vacuum.- Guericke (Otto von). <i>Experimenta nova (ut vocantur) Magdeburgica de Vacuo Spatio,</i> first edition; bound with <i>Philosophia Universa de Microcosmo</i>. £12,000 to £16,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, May 31:</b> [The Holy Land, Syria, Idumea, Arabia, Egypt & Nubia ...], vignette title and 42 plates from the deluxe subscriber's edition, 1842-1849 (43). £7,000 to £10,000
  • <b>Swann Auction Galleries June 5:</b> Charles Addams, <i>Penguin Convention,</i> watercolor, cover for <i>The New Yorker,</i> 1977. $15,000 to $20,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries June 5:</b> Ludwig Bemelmans, <i>Agreed! No whiskey anywhere is more deluxe than Walker's DeLuxe,</i> pen, ink & watercolor, 1957. $10,000 to $15,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries June 5:</b> Charles Schulz, <i>Do you like Beethoven?,</i> pen & ink, 9-panel <i>Peanuts</i> comic, 1970. $20,000 to $30,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries June 5:</b> Russell Tandy, <i>The Secret in the Old Attic,</i> watercolor & gouache, cover for <i>Nancy Drew,</i> 1944. $15,000 to $25,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries June 5:</b> Arthur Rackham, <i>Danaë & the Infant Perseus,</i> watercolor, ink & wash, for Hawthorne's <i>A Wonder Book,</i> 1922. $10,000 to $15,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries June 5:</b> Tom Lovell, <i>I believe in magic too,</i> oil on canvas, published in <i>Woman's Home Companion,</i> 1947. $7,000 to $10,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries June 5:</b> Enoch Bolles, <i>With Love...,</i> watercolor & gouache, cover for <i>Wow!</i> magazine, 1931. $7,000 to $10,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries June 5:</b><br>Rick Meyerowitz & Maira Kalman, <i>New Yorkistan,</i> pen, ink & watercolor sketch for a <i>New Yorker cover,</i> 2001. $10,000 to $15,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries June 5:</b> Jessie Willcox Smith, <i>Touching,</i> watercolor for <i>The Five Senses</i> by Angela M. Keyes, 1911. $12,000 to $18,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries June 5:</b> Edward Gorey, <i>ABA 75,</i> watercolor & ink, cover for <i>Publisher's Weekly,</i> 1975. $5,000 to $7,500.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries June 5:</b> Aubrey Beardsley, <i>Shelter,</i> pen & ink, for <i>Bon-Mots,</i> 1892. $8,000 to $12,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries June 5:</b> Tedd Arnold, <i>I think it was three days ago...,</i> colored pencil & watercolor, for <i>Parts,</i> 1996. $4,000 to $6,000.
  • <b>Archives International Auctions: U.S., Chinese & Worldwide Banknotes, Scripophily & Coins. May 23, 2018</b>
    <b>Archives International, May 23:</b> Chinese-American Bank of Commerce, 1920 "Harbin" Branch Issue Rarity. $5, P-S231s1, S/M#C271-3.5b, Specimen banknote. $25,000 to $35,000
    <b>Archives International, May 23:</b> Deutsch-Asiatische Bank, 1907 "Peking" Branch High Grade Rarity. 5 Taels, P-S280r S/M#T101-11b, Remainder Banknote. $17,000 to $22,000
    <b>Archives International, May 23:</b> Deutsch-Asiatische Bank, 1907, "Tsingtau" Branch Issue Rarity. $1, P-1a S/M#T101-40, Issued banknote. $8,000 to $16,000
    <b>Archives International Auctions: U.S., Chinese & Worldwide Banknotes, Scripophily & Coins. May 23, 2018</b>
    <b>Archives International, May 23:</b> Spanish American War - Three Per Cent Loan of 1898, $20 Bond. Issued and uncanceled. $6,000 to $10,000
    <b>Archives International, May 23:</b> Winnemucca, NV - $5 Ty. 1, The First NB of Winnemucca, Ch# 3575, Fr#1800-1. $3,000 to $5,000
    <b>Archives International, May 23:</b> National Banknote Assortment of Original 1st Charter, Plain Back and Date Back Issues. Lot of 6 notes, Includes Pennsylvania Nationals, First National Bank of Selins Grove, 1865, $1… $3,200 to $4,400
    <b>Archives International Auctions: U.S., Chinese & Worldwide Banknotes, Scripophily & Coins. May 23, 2018</b>
    <b>Archives International, May 23:</b> People's Bank of China, 1950 Issue Banknote. 50,000 Yuan, P-855 KYJ-C157a S/M#C282-, Issued banknote. $7,000 to $12,500
    <b>Archives International, May 23:</b> Pei-Yang Tientsin Bank, ND (ca.1910) Remainder Banknote. $3, P-S2527 S/M#P35-11. $5,000 to $7,000
    <b>Archives International, May 23:</b> Palestine Foundation Fund - Keren Hayesod Specimen Sacrifice Bond 1922. $1,000, Specimen Bond, "For the Up building of Palestine as a Homeland for the Jewish People". $1,500 to $2,500
  • <b>Bonhams: Results from Fine Books and Manuscripts on March 9, 2018</b>
    <b>Bonhams, Mar. 9:</b> BEETHOVEN, LUDWIG VAN. Autograph Manuscript sketch-leaf part of the score of the Scottish Songs, "Sunset" Op. 108 no 2. [Vienna, February 1818]. Inscribed by Alexander Wheelock Thayer. SOLD for $131,250
    <b>Bonhams, Mar. 9:</b> Violin belonging to Albert Einstein, presented to him by Oscar H. Steger, 1933. SOLD for $516,500
    <b>Bonhams, Mar. 9:</b> EINSTEIN, ALBERT. Autograph Letter Signed ("Papa") to his son Hans Albert, discussing his involvement with the atomic bomb, September 2, 1945. SOLD for $106,250
    <b>Bonhams: Results from Fine Books and Manuscripts on March 9, 2018</b>
    <b>Bonhams, Mar. 9:</b> HAMILTON, ALEXANDER. Autograph Letter Signed, to Baron von Steuben, with extensive notes of Von Steuben's aide Benjamin Walker, June 12, 1780. SOLD for $16,250
    <b>Bonhams, Mar. 9:</b> NEWTON, ISAAC. Autograph Manuscript in Latin, being detailed instructions on making the philosopher's stone. 8 pp. 1790s. SOLD for $275,000
    <b>Bonhams, Mar. 9:</b> 1869 Inauguration Bible of President Ulysses S. Grant. SOLD for $118,750
  • <b>Ketterer Kunst Hamburg: Rare Books Auction on May 28th</b>
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, May 28:</b> Book of Hours. Workshop Vrelant, around 1460-70. Est: € 30,000
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, May 28:</b> J. J. Marinoni, <i>De Astronomica specula,</i> 1745. Est: € 12,000
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, May 28:</b> C. S. Lewis, <i>The Chronicles of Narnia,</i> 1950-56. Est: € 7,500
    <b>Ketterer Kunst Hamburg: Rare Books Auction on May 28th</b>
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, May 28:</b> G. W. Knorr, <i>Regnum florae,</i> 1750. Est:<br>€ 15,000
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, May 28:</b> A. M. S. Boethius, <i>De philosophico consolatu,</i> 1501. Est: € 8,000
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, May 28:</b> J. Joyce, <i>Ulysses,</i> 1922. Est: € 5,000
    <b>Ketterer Kunst Hamburg: Rare Books Auction on May 28th</b>
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, May 28:</b> Ornaments by H. Vogeler, 1900. Est:<br>€ 4,000
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, May 28:</b> <i>Biblia Germanica,</i> 1490. Est: € 15,000
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, May 28:</b> F. M. Regenfuss, <i>Auserlesne Schnecken und Muscheln,</i> 1758. Est: € 18,000
    <b>Ketterer Kunst Hamburg: Rare Books Auction on May 28th</b>
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, May 28:</b> Einband Henry van de Velde, 1929. Est: € 4,000
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, May 28:</b> <i>Hortus Sanitatis,</i> 1517. Est: € 12,000
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, May 28:</b> R. Crevel and J. Miró, 1957. Est: € 3,500

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