• <b>Arader June 11:</b> Audubon Aquatint by Havell, Purple Heron Purple Heron or Reddish Egret, Plate 256. London: Havell, 1827-1838.<br>Est. $45,000-$60,000.
    <b>Arader June 11:</b> Audubon Aquatint by Havell, Wild Turkey, Male Wild Turkey, Male, Plate 1. London: Havell, 1827-38. Est. $80,000-$100,000.
    <b>Arader June 11:</b> Audubon Lithographs, Imperial Folio, Common Deer Common Deer, Plate 136. Philadelphia: J. T. Bowen, 1839-44. Est. $12,000-$15,000.
    <b>Arader June 11:</b> Charles H. Smith, Indian Elephant Watercolor Indian Elephant. Charles H. Smith (1760 - 1859). Est. $6,000-$8,000.
    <b>Arader June 11:</b> Spectacularly Rare Copper Engraving Solanum Pomiferum. Basil Besler (1561-1629). Est. $5,000-$8,000.
    <b>Arader June 11:</b> John Contable Drawing of River Stour Barges on the River Stour at Flatford, Suffolk John Constable (1776-1837).<br>Est. $45000-$65000.
    <b>Arader June 11:</b> Pine's The Tapestry Hangings of the House of Lords The Tapestry Hangings of the House of Lords. Est. $18000-$22000.
    <b>Arader June 11:</b> Exceptionally Fine and Attractive Copy of Bertram's Travels Travels. William Bartram (1729-1823). Est. $22000-$25000.
    <b>Arader June 11:</b> Mortier & Covens French edition of Mitchell A Map of the British and French Dominions in N America... Est. $15000-$25000.
    <b>Arader June 11:</b> Jefferson and Fry Map of Virgina, 1776 A Map of the Most Inhabited part of Virginia... <br>Est. $12000-$18000.
    <b>Arader June 11:</b> Floriano, Untitled World Map on a Double Hemisphere Polar Projection World Map. Antonio Floriano. Est. $75000-$100000.
    <b>Arader June 11:</b> Bierstadt Chromolithograph of Yosemite Domes of Yosemite. Albert Bierstadt (1830-1902). Est. $18000-$25000.
  • <b>Bonhams Fine Books and Manuscripts, 8 June 2016, New York</b>
    <b>Bonhams June 8:</b> Lot 1. ARISTOTLE. 384-322 B.C.E. De animalibus [De historia animalium. De partibus animalium. De generatione animalium.] US$ 300,000-500,000.
    <b>Bonhams June 8:</b> Lot 44. ARIOSTO, LUDOVICO. 1474-1533. Orlando Furioso in English Heroical Verse, by John Haringto[n]. [London: Richard Field, 1591.] US$ 70,000-90,000.
    <b>Bonhams June 8:</b> Lot 183. HARRISON, William Henry. Document Signed AS PRESIDENT ("W.H. Harrison"). US$ 40,000-60,000.
    <b>Bonhams June 8:</b> Lot 116. <br>ALI, MUHAMMAD. B.1942. U.S. Passport Signed ("Muhammad Ali") Twice, [Dublin, July 19, 1972].<br>US$ 25,000-35,000.
    <b>Bonhams June 8:</b> Lot 52. Bible In English. [Mearne, Samuel, binder.] The Holy Bible containing the bookes of the Old & New Testament. US$ 25,000-35,000.
    <b>Bonhams June 8:</b> Lot 130. EARHART, Amelia. 1897-1937. Archive of material on the purchase and outfitting of Earhart's Lockheed Electra 10e. US$ 15,000-20,000.
    <b>Bonhams June 8:</b> Lot 85. BURTON, Virginia Lee. 1909-1968. The Little House. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1942. US$ 15,000-20,000.
    <b>Bonhams London June 15.</b> Lot 68. CAMERON (Julia Margaret) Kate Keown [No. 5 Of Series of Twelve Lifesized Heads], [1866]. <br>£30,000-50,000.
    <b>Bonhams London June 15.</b> Lot 98. Karl Marx. Das Kapital. Kritik der politischen Oekonomie... Erster Band, FIRST EDITION, 1867.<br>£80,000-120,000.
    <b>Bonhams London June 15.</b> Lot 111. Isaac Newton Autograph manuscript, in English, headed "The Question stated about abstaining from blood". £50,000-70,000.
    <b>Bonhams London June 15.</b> Lot 112. Nobel Prize for discovering isotopes in stable elements, awarded to F.W. Aston in 1922. £200,000-400,000.
    <b>Bonhams London June 15.</b> Lot 140. Kay Nielsen (Prince Bismarck discovering the soldier), 1913. £15,000-20,000.
  • <b>American History: Live Salesroom Auction, June 10, 10:00 AM ET</b>
    <b>Cowans June 10:</b> Lot 5. The Confederate Blockade Runner <i>CSS Colonel Lamb at Sea</i>, 1864, by Samuel Walters. Est $60000-$80000.
    <b>Cowans June 10:</b> Lot 140. Brevet Brigadier General James H. Kidd, 6th Michigan Cavalry, Exceptional Collection. Est Est $80000-$100000.
    <b>Cowans June 10:</b> Lot 141. Elizabeth "Libbie" Bacon Custer, ALS and Souvenir Relics from the Surrender at Appomattox Court House.<br>Est $20000-$30000.
    <b>Cowans June 10:</b> Lot 116. Colonel Elmer E. Ellsworth Presentation Sword and Archive. Lot of 52 items related to Elmer Ellsworth.<br>Est $100000-$200000.
    <b>American History: Live Salesroom Auction, June 10, 10:00 AM ET</b>
    <b>Cowans June 10:</b> Lot 1. Paul Revere, War of 1812, Mechanics of the Town of Boston Signed Pledge. <br>Est $10000-$15000.
    <b>Cowans June 10:</b> Lot 64. Rare Whole Plate Tintype of the Ill-Fated Civil War Steamer Sultana. <br>Est $5000-$7000.
    <b>Cowans June 10:</b> Lot 346. James B. "Wild Bill" Hickok Tintype and Autograph Poem Signed.<br>Est $20000-$30000.
    <b>Cowans June 10:</b> Lot 330. Remarkable California US Mail Steamship Co. Broadside, 1859. <br>Est $10000-$15000.
    <b>American History: Live Salesroom Auction, June 10, 10:00 AM ET</b>
    <b>Cowans June 10:</b> Lot 161. Previously Unknown Daguerreotype of Future First Lady Julia Dent Grant and Sons Made for Captain Ulysses S. Grant. Est $10000-$15000.
    <b>Cowans June 10:</b> Lot 229. <i>Titanic Disaster</i>, Ogden Family Travel Album Containing 30 Photographs Taken from the RMS Carpathia. <br>Est $5000-$7000.
    <b>Cowans June 10:</b> Lot 230. RMS <i>Titanic</i>, Cork from Life Belt Salvaged by Passengers of the RMS <i>Carpathia</i>. Est $7000-$9000.
    <b>Cowans June 10:</b> Lot 231. Bronze RMS Carpathia Medals Presented to Mr. & Mrs. Ogden, Plus ALS from Captain Arthur Rostron.<br>Est $4000-$6000.
  • http://catalogue.swanngalleries.com/asp/searchresults.asp?sale_no=2419&st=D&viewby=lot_asc&ps=25&pg=1
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries June 14:</b> Lewis Carroll, <i>Alice's Adventures</i>, illustrated & signed by Salvador Dalí, New York, 1969. <br>$12,000 to $18,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries June 14:</b> David Roberts, <i>The Holy Land</i>, 6 volumes, London, 1842-49. <br>$35,000 to $50,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries June 14:</b> Arthur Szyk, <i>The Szyk Haggadah</i>, edited by Cecil Roth, first edition, signed, London, 1939. <br>$15,000 to $25,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries June 14:</b> William Shakespeare, <i>The Dramatic Works</i>, 9 illustrated volumes, London, 1802. $5,000 to $7,500.
    http://catalogue.swanngalleries.com/asp/searchresults.asp?sale_no=2419&st=D&viewby=lot_asc&ps=25&pg=1
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries June 14:</b> Grimm Brothers, <i>Little Brother & Little Sister</i>, illustrated & signed by Arthur Rackham, London, 1917. $2,000 to $3,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries June 14:</b> John Milton, <i>Paradise Lost</i>, illustrated by John Martin, London, 1846. $1,500 to $2,500.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries June 14:</b> Edward Young, <i>The Complaint, and The Consolation</i>, first edition, illustrated by William Blake, London, 1797. $8,000 to $10,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries June 14:</b> <i>Catalogue of the Morgan Collection of Chinese Porcelains</i>, first edition, New York, 1904-11. $3,000 to $4,000.

Rare Book Monthly

Articles - July - 2006 Issue

For Printed Materials: The Probability of Appearance

Munselliana.photo

Joel Munsell: the fastidious bibliographer


By Bruce McKinney

It is becoming possible to estimate the print runs of perhaps 150,000 antiquarian items, whose printing histories were never recorded, based on formulas that compare detailed printing records provided by Joel Munsell to the number of copies found in the OCLC, appearances at auction and sightings on listing sites and eBay. The goal is a new statistical measure that projects "probability of appearance" for books and ephemera. The internet has made it possible for millions of items to be offered but what is the likelihood what you are looking for will show up? I think we can know.

Munsell's material, published over a fifty year period in the 19th century, covered an extensive range of subjects and was printed in formats that range from 8-page pamphlets to 400-page books. He documented his printing history and it comes down to us today as a basis for comparison to copies in institutional, auction and listing venues. He published a directory of 2,268 printings and documented a thousand items, published between 1834 and 1870, with bibliographic details and the quantities printed.

For book dealers, collectors, auction houses and libraries such information may in time become part of a printing's essential facts. The initial print run is but one factor in calculating "probability of appearance" but it is an essential one that combined with appearances in various databases, historical data and bibliographic details may make it possible to construct an index with implications for all collectible printed materials.

The theory is simple algebra and the objective to solve for the unknown. Munsell provides half the variables and modern databases and listing sites the other. In Munsell's case, with both sides known, we should be able to establish the range of variation with some precision and apply this range broadly to material that lacks the quantity printed but is otherwise bibliographically complete.

For this we owe a debt to Joel Munsell, the Albany, New York printer, who maintained extensive records of the various books and pamphlets he printed during his career. In Bibliotheca Munselliana: A Catalogue of the Books and Pamphlets issued from the Press of Joel Munsell from the year 1828 to 1870, he detailed 2,268 book and pamphlet printing jobs including the quantity printed for about 1,000 of them. Using the information he provides it's possible to compare his quantities with their appearances in library inventories, at auction and on listing sites. With these numbers we can estimate survival statistics and in time "probabilities of appearance."

In this article I examine Munsell's production for the period 1834 through 1840 for which he identifies 104 items. I then focus on 64, all books and pamphlets, for which he provides the quantities printed and compare these quantities to the number of copies found in the OCLC today. Let's take a look.

Rare Book Monthly

  • <b>19th Century Shop.</b> DARWIN, CHARLES. Iconic signed Darwin photograph "I like this photograph much better than any other which ..."
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> DARWIN, CHARLES. <i>Autograph Letter Signed</i>. Early Unpublished Darwin letter on the races of man.
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> WRIGHT, WILBUR. Experiments and Observations in Soaring Flight. Journal of the Western Society of Engineers 8, no. 4 (August, 1903).
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> EINSTEIN, ALBERT. <i>The Meaning of Relativity.</i> FIRST EDITION IN ENGLISH. Signed and dated Oxford 1931.
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> GARDNER, ALEXANDER. Antietam Bridge, Maryland. "One of the memorable spots in the history of the war."
  • <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Leaves from<br>George Washington's Own Draft <br>of His first Inaugural Address. An Extraordinary Rarity!
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Declaration of Independence: Benjamin Tyler 1818 - First Print with Facsimile Signatures.
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Thomas Jefferson Signed Act of Contress Authorizing Alexander Hamilton to Complete Famous Portland Maine Lighthouse.
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Emanuel Leutze. Silk Flag Banner designed by Leutze, created by Tiffany & Co., and presented to Gen. John A. Dix, 1864.
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> The "greatest of early American maps … a masterpiece" (Corcoran). Thomas Holme.
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Lincoln Summons His Cabinet for a Historic Meeting to Discuss Compensated Emancipation.
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Albert Einstein. Autograph Letter Signed. Einstein Counsels His Son ... Meaning of Life.
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Normal Rockwell. Painting/Drawing Signed. Rockwell's "Barbeshop Quartet", 1936.
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Frederick Douglass. Autograph Letter Signed to unknown correspondent. Washington, D.C.
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Harry Truman. Autograph Manuscript Notebook for Kansas City Law School Night Class.
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Robert E. Lee. Autograph Letter Signed, June 11, 1782. Hours after the Battle of Culpeper Court House, Lee Escapes Again.
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> George Washington. Letter Signed, as Commander-in-Chief, Continental Army, to Elias Dayton, Headquarters, [Newburgh, N.Y.], June 11, 1782.

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