Rare Book Monthly

Articles - July - 2017 Issue

Popular Print: Fearless (if subjective) Forecasting

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A 2016 ad for a comic book auction house displays SOLD prices from $120,000 to $625,000.

“By the shore of Gitche Gumee,

By the shining Big-Sea-Water,

At the doorway of his wigwam,

In the pleasant Summer morning,

Hiawatha stood and waited…..”

 

When my father was a child in the early years of the 20th century every school child knew Longfellow’s Hiawatha, and - oh best beloved - had read and re-read Kipling’s Just So Stories. The best seller lists of those years were populated by authors with three names like John Kendrick Bangs, Gene Stratton Porter, and Frances Hodgson Burnett. His own personal favorite in the three names department was James Branch Cabell, and though I still have my dad’s own copy of Jurgen, it’s been a mighty long time since I’ve cracked the covers.

 

The Hundred Million Club

 

A hundred years later, in the summer of 2017, it’s doubtful that most of what the last century admired in printed word will survive the crossover into the digital era, much less remain popular, collectible or go up in value in our own day. With that in mind, there's no time like the present to take stock of who will and won’t be with us in years to come, though your guess is as good as mine when it comes to anticipating what keeps a work of fiction or nonfiction fresh and relevant despite the passage of time.

 

Consider a book like The Tale Peter Rabbit by Beatrix Potter, which first saw the light of day as a private printing of 250 copies in December 1901 and has never been out of print since then. Peter and other titles in the series have subsequently sold over 150 million copies in 35 languages according to Wikipedia.

 

Other titles in the 100 million or more club include: Don Quixote, The Tale of Two Cities, Lord of the Rings, The Little Prince, the Harry Potter books (Wikipedia estimates the series sales at over 500 million), the Hobbit, She (Who Must Be Obeyed), and the Narnia series. Despite changing tastes all of these seem likely to continue in popularity whether in printed or digital form. On the non-fiction side a few titles that seem destined to endure include the Prince, Origin of Species, Anne Frank’s Diary of a Young Girl, Autobiography of Malcolm X, all in print and all seem to be selling just as well now as they did in years past.

 

In addition to those already mentioned, here are a few of my own nominations for books that were popular in the 20th century that will continue to be read through the 21st century and I predict will maintain their value as collectibles in the correct editions (in no particular order):

 

Atlas Shrugged; The Fountainhead; Catcher in the Rye; To Kill a Mockingbird; Gone with the Wind; Mastering the Art of French Cooking; How to Win Friends and Influence People; Ulysses; Animal Farm; The Hobbit; 1984; The Godfather; Where the Wild Things Are; Cat in the Hat; Goodnight Moon; Alcoholics Anonymous Big Book; all the James Bond thrillers; 100 Years of Solitude; Pride and Prejudice; Winnie the Pooh; Sherlock Holmes; Lolita; Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas; Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?; Blood Meridian; One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest; all Emily Dickinson; Howl; On the Road; all of William Blake; and Gnostic Gospels to name a few.

 

Notice how many have already disappeared and how many more are apt to fade in the coming decades. Quite a comprehensive view of the fleeting nature of popularity can be found in this link that goes through best sellers and critically acclaimed books of the 20th century year-by-year. www.ocf.berkeley.edu/~immer/booksall

 

20th Century Drek

 

As for 20th century drek: here are a few of my picks for books that once were popular but IMHO you won’t be able to give away much less sell -- In the Kitchen with Rosie; Bridges of Madison County; The Da Vinci Code; Jonathan Livingston Seagull; Your Erroneous Zones; Anything with “Chicken Soup” in the title; Tuesdays with Morrie; The Celestine Prophecy; Fifty Shades of Grey; The Purpose Driven Life, and The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People. All of them are books that sold multi-millions of copies but have little or no present or foreseeable future monetary value.

 

Fearless Forecasting

The Halas forecast for male authors whose values are still rising include Tolkien, Orwell, Kerouac and the Beats, Edgar Rice Burroughs, Joseph Conrad, Kafka, ee cummings, TS Eliot, TE Lawrence, Faulkner, Hammett (and all noir fiction), Dr. Seuss, Mandela, Richard Wright, James Baldwin, Bradbury, and Vonnegut.

 

Among my picks for women writers who seem destined to remain popular in the years ahead are: Ayn Rand, Emily Dickinson, JK Rowling, Harper Lee, Beatrix Potter, Jane Austen, Virginia Woolf, Margaret Mitchell, and Zora Neale Hurston.

 

Slipping a little (or maybe a lot) are some of the benchmark authors who don’t seem to have the cultural traction they once enjoyed. The Halas crystal ball sees declines in Hemingway, Fitzgerald, Steinbeck, Michener, Whitman, Twain, Poe, Updike, Roth, Mailer, Dos Passos, Sinclair Lewis, Tarkington, Melville, Freud, Mann, Shaw, Tom Wolfe, and Capote.

 

On the distaff side some ladies who have perhaps seen better days are Pearl S. Buck, Anne Morrow Lindbergh, Edith Wharton, Willa Cather, Edna Ferber, Edna St. Vincent Millay, Mary McCarthy, Daphne du Maurier and Frances Parkinson Keyes.

 

Comics the sleeper of the print world

To me the great sleeper phenomena in the world of print in the 20th century was the incredible rise in popularity and value of comic books. While we were busy focusing on books, an enormous audience turned their attention and collecting dollars to comics.

 

For example, book fairs and other events aimed at rare and collectible book enthusiasts may draw an audience of a few thousand. Compare that with he numerous comic conventions which boast attendances in the six figures and growing.

 

Even more astonishing are the prices realized for desirable comics, which now routinely bring eye-popping figures. A 2016 ad for a comic auction house displays six SOLD prices ranging from $120,000 to $625,000, top dollar prices paid for merchandise that until recently was considered of little value. In contrast, the most expensive book sold on ABE books in 2016 was an 1866 American edition of Alice in Wonderland which brought $36,000.

 

If you’re a dealer or collector thinking about what the future might hold for print this is a dramatic illustration of how tastes, markets and prices have shifted. If you're waiting for Hiawatha to rebound, you may wait a long time.



To jog your memory on what the 20th bought and read here are a few lists of popular books through the last 100 years. Try making your own list of what will survive the 21st century.

  

Some interesting links for popular books of the 20th century

 

redeemingqualities.wordpress.com/early-20th-century-bestsellers

 

jamesclear.com/best-books/best-selling

 

thegreatestbooks.org/nonfiction

 

www.abebooks.com/docs/Community/Featured/bestSellers20thCentury.shtml

 

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_books#More_than_100_million_copies

 

www.ocf.berkeley.edu/~immer/booksall

 

www.abebooks.com/rare-books/most-expensive-sales/year-2016.shtml

 

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_expensive_books_and_manuscripts

Rare Book Monthly

  • <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar 8:<br>Early Printed, Medical, Scientific & Travel Books</b>
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar 8:</b> Caius Julius Hyginus, <i>Poeticon Astronomicon,</i> first illustrated edition, Venice, 1482. $15,000 to $20,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar 8:</b> Giovanni Botero, <i>Le Relationi Universali... divise in Sette Parti</i>, Venice, 1618. $3,000 to $5,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar 8:</b> <i>L'Escole des Filles</i>, likely third edition of the first work of pornographic fiction in French, 1676. $8,000 to $12,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar 8:<br>Early Printed, Medical, Scientific & Travel Books</b>
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar 8:</b> Illuminated Book of Hours in Latin on vellum, Flanders, early 16th century. $6,000 to $9,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar 8:</b> Johannes Regiomontanus, <i>Calendarium,</i> Venice, 1485. $8,000 to $12,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar 8:</b> Pedro de Medina, <i>Libro d[e] gra[n]dezas y cosas memorables de España,</i> Alcalá de Henares, 1566. $3,000 to $5,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar 8:<br>Early Printed, Medical, Scientific & Travel Books</b>
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar 8:</b><br>Luis de Lucena, <i>Arte de Ajedres,</i> Salamanca, circa 1496-97. $10,000 to $15,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar 8:</b> Andrés Serrano, <i>Los Siete Principes de los Ángeles, válidos de Rey del Cielo,</i> Spain, 1707. $800 to $1,200.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar 8:</b> Johannes de Sacrobosco, <i>Sphaera mundi,</i> first illustrated edition, Venice, 1478. $15,000 to $20,000.
  • <b>Bonhams, Feb. 11:</b> A Rare 3-rotor German Enigma I Enciphering Machine. $70,000 to $90,000
    <b>Bonhams, Feb. 11:</b> Important collection of correspondence between Werner Heisenberg and Bruno Rossi. $40,000 to $60,000
    <b>Bonhams, Feb. 11:</b> Walt Whitman Autograph manuscript containing his thoughts on death. $20,000 to $30,000
    <b>Bonhams, Feb. 11:</b> David Roberts. <i>Holy Land</i>. Six volumes. 1842-1849. First edition. $15,000 to $25,000
    <b>Bonhams, Feb. 11:</b> Extensive collection of Ray Bradbury's primary works, most signed or inscribed. $15,000 to $20,000
    <b>Bonhams, Feb. 11:</b> Peter Force. Declaration of Independence. $12,000 to $18,000
    <b>Bonhams, Feb. 11:</b> Steinbeck. <i>Grapes of Wrath</i>. A fine copy of the first edition. $10,000 to $15,000
    <b>Bonhams, Feb. 11:</b> Lewis & Clark. <i>Travels to the Source of the Missouri River</i>... First English edition, extra-illustrated. 1814. $10,000 to 15,000
    <b>Bonhams, Feb. 11:</b> Manuscript document signed by Nuno de Guzman relating to Hernan Cortes, 1528. $8,000 to $12,000
    <b>Bonhams, Feb. 11:</b> “Nos los inquisidores..." The first book in English printed West of the Mississippi. [1787]. $5,000 to $8,000.
  • <b>Dominic Winter, March 9:</b> Collection of 131 Herbert Ponting gelatin silver contact prints of Antartica, £6000-8000
    <b>Dominic Winter, March 9:</b> One of several lots of Henri Cartier-Bresson gelatin silver prints, £200-300
    <b>Dominic Winter, March 9:</b> Vintage gelatin silver print of Diego Rivera by Leonard McCombe, £300-500
    <b>Dominic Winter, March 9:</b> Albumen print portrait by Julia Margaret Cameron of Sir John Herschel (April, 1867), £30,000-50,000
    <b>Dominic Winter, March 9:</b> Albumen print by Julia Margaret Cameron, Love, 1864 (from the Norman album), £1000-1500
    <b>Dominic Winter, March 9:</b> Albumen print by Lewis Carroll of Twyford School Eleven (Summer Term, 1859), £1000-1500
    <b>Dominic Winter, March 9:</b> Albumen print portrait by Lewis Carroll of Xie Kitchin as 'Dane' (Oxford, 1873), £500-800
    <b>Dominic Winter, March 9:</b> Calotype print (c1845) by Hill & Adamson of Lady Elizabeth (Rigby) Eastlake, £3000-4000
    <b>Dominic Winter, March 9:</b> Group of 12 waxed paper negatives of Scottish scenes by Thomas Keith, mid-1850s, £3000-5000
    <b>Dominic Winter, March 9:</b> One of 15 lots of Roger Fenton salt prints of his work in the Crimea, mid-1850s, £400-600
    <b>Dominic Winter, March 9:</b> Quarter plate ambrotype (c.1860s) with ethnographic portrait of a woman seated at a table, £400-600
    <b>Dominic Winter, March 9:</b> Rare whole plate thermoplastic union case of the Landing of Columbus (c.1858),part of the John Hannavy collection, £1500-2000
  • <b>19th Century Shop:</b> Charles Darwin on sexuality and the transmission of hereditary characteristics: Autograph Letter Signed to Lawson Tait. Down, 17 January [1877].
    <b>19th Century Shop:</b> MILTON, JOHN. <i>Paradise Lost. A Poem written in ten books.</i> London: 1667. A very rare example with the contemporary binding untouched and with a 1667 title page.
    <b>19th Century Shop:</b> Hamilton secures the ratification of the Constitution: <i>The Debates and Proceedings of the Convention of the State of New-York, assembled at Poughkeespsie, on the 17th June, 1788.</i>
    <b>19th Century Shop:</b> The social contract “Man is born free, and everywhere he is in chains”: ROUSSEAU, JEAN-JACQUES. <i>Principes du Droit Politique [Du Contract Social]</i>. Amsterdam: Michel Rey, 1762
    <b>19th Century Shop:</b> “The first English textbook on geometrical land-measurement and surveying”: BENESE, RICHARD. <i>This Boke Sheweth the Maner of Measurynge All Maner of Lande…</i>

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