• <b>Bonhams, March 9. Fine Books and Manuscripts, Including the Kennedy Years</b>
    <b>Bonhams Mar. 9:</b> BROWNING, ELIZABETH BARRETT. Autograph Manuscript Initialed ("E.B.B."), being the working notebook for the poems contained in <i>The Seraphim and Other Poems</i>. $400,000 to 600,000
    <b>Bonhams Mar. 9:</b> WILDE, OSCAR. Two leaves, pp 31-34, from the first appearance of <i>The Picture of Dorian Gray in Lippincott's Monthly Magazine for July, 1890</i>, with Wilde's autograph revisions. $40,000 to 60,000
    <b>Bonhams Mar. 9:</b> SHAKESPEARE, WILLIAM. <i>Comedies, Histories and Tragedies; Published according to the true Originall Copies. Second Impression. [THE SECOND FOLIO.]</i> $200,000 to 300,000
    <b>Bonhams, March 9. Fine Books and Manuscripts, Including the Kennedy Years</b>
    <b>Bonhams Mar. 9:</b> KENNEDY, JOHN FITZGERALD. Photograph Signed ("John F. Kennedy") and Inscribed, 8 x 10 inch gelatin silver print, of Senator Kennedy and Miss Barelli, at the swearing of the secretarial oath for Miss Barelli. $1,200 to 1,800
    <b>Bonhams Mar. 9:</b> COOPER, JAMES FENIMORE. Autograph Manuscript, being Chapter XXVII of <i>Afloat and Ashore</i>. $15,000 to 20,000
    <b>Bonhams Mar. 9:</b> IRVING, WASHINGTON. Autograph Manuscript, being Chapter 20 from Volume IV of <i>The Life of George Washington</i>. $20,000 to 30,000
    <b>Bonhams, March 9. Fine Books and Manuscripts, Including the Kennedy Years</b>
    <b>Bonhams Mar. 9:</b> VERNE, JULES. Autograph Manuscript Signed ("Jules Verne"), being the complete short story "<i>Une fantaisie de docteur Ox</i>". $100,000 to 150,000
    <b>Bonhams Mar. 9:</b> ALCHEMY. <i>[The Crowning of Nature, or Coronatio Naturae.]</i> Original alchemical manuscript on paper, ruled in red, with watermark of the arms of Schieland. $100,000 to 150,000
    <b>Bonhams Mar. 9:</b> DE JODE, CORNELUS. 1568 - 1600. <i>Quivirae Regnu, Cum Alija Versus Borea</i>. [Antwerp: Arnoldum Coninx, 1593]. $7,000 to 10,000
    <b>Bonhams, March 9. Fine Books and Manuscripts, Including the Kennedy Years</b>
    <b>Bonhams Mar. 9:</b> HOOKER, JOSEPH DALTON. <i>The Rhododendrons of Sikkim-Himalaya; Being an Account, Botanical and Geographical, of the Rhododendrons Recently Discovered in the Mountains of Eastern Himalaya</i>… $7,000 to 10,000
    <b>Bonhams Mar. 9:</b> CATLIN, GEORGE. <i>North American Indian Portfolio. Hunting scenes and amusements of the Rocky Mountains and prairies of America. From drawings and notes of the author, made during eight years' travel.</i> $20,000 to 30,000
    <b>Bonhams Mar. 9:</b> LINCOLN, ABRAHAM. HESLER, ALEXANDER. Platinum print, 8 3/4 x 6 3/4 in, of a beardless Lincoln, 1860.<br>$2,000 to 3,000
  • <b>Doyle, Apr. 26:</b> THE PAPERS OF BREVET MAJOR GENERAL JOHN GROSS BARNARD (1815-1882), Chief Engineer of the Army of the Potomac. Estimate: $75,000-100,000
    <b>Doyle, Apr. 26:</b> ALVIN LANGDON COBURN. London. With 20 photogravures by Coburn and text by Hilaire Belloc, London and New York: 1909. First edition. Est: $4,000-6,000
    <b>Doyle, Apr. 26:</b> WILLIAM FADEN, A Plan of New York Island, with part of Long Island, Staten Island & East New Jersey. London: 1776. Estimate: $5,000-8,000
    <b>Doyle, Apr. 26:</b> MAX BEERBOHM, Lord Curzon delivering an oration. Original drawing with collage. London, 1912. Est: $2,000-3,000
    <b>Doyle, Apr. 26:</b> AMERICAN REVOLUTION, Recueil des Loix Constitutives des Colonies Angloises. A Philadelphie, et se vend a Paris: Cellot & Jombert, 1778. First collected edition in French. Estimate: $500-800
    <b>Doyle, Apr. 26:</b> WILLIAM TECUMSEH SHERMAN, Confederate General Joseph Johnston's copy of Sherman's General Orders No. 65 announcing the final agreement of Surrender, 27 April 1865. Est: $4,000-6,000
    <b>Doyle, Apr. 26:</b> JOHN KEATS, Lamia, Isabella, the Eve of Saint Agnes and Other Poems. London: Taylor and Hessey, 1820. First edition of Keats’s third book.. Estimate: $5,000-7,000
    <b>Doyle, Apr. 26:</b> M. T. Cicero's Cato Major, or his discourse of Old-age: With Explanatory Notes. Philadelphia: Benjamin Franklin, 1744. Est: $5,000-8,000
    <b>Doyle, Apr. 26:</b> WINSTON S CHURCHILL, History of the English Speaking Peoples. London: Cassell, 1956-58. First editions. Est: $1,500-2,500
  • <b>Auction Pierre Bergé & associés in association with Sotheby’s: Important Books and Manuscripts from the Library of Jean A. Bonna from the 15th to the 20th Century. Sale on April 26, 2017. Exhibition in London March 28-30</b>
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris, Apr. 26:</b> Galileo, <i>Discorsi e Dimostrazioni matematiche.</i> Leyde, Elzevier, 1638. Original edition: only known copy of the first state. €700,000 – 900,000
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris, Apr. 26:</b> Fables illustrated by Benjamin Rabier. Paris, Tallandier, without date [ca. 1910]. Superb binding doubled in vellum decorated with painted and mosaic decors by André Mare illustrating four fables. €10,000 – 15,000
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris, Apr. 26:</b> Gustave Flaubert, draft for the preface of the <i>Memoir for the defense of Madame Bovary</i>, 15-30 January 1857. Exceptiona signed autograph manuscript. €40,000 – 60,000
    <b>Auction Pierre Bergé & associés in association with Sotheby’s: Important Books and Manuscripts from the Library of Jean A. Bonna from the 15th to the 20th Century. Sale on April 26, 2017. Exhibition in London March 28-30</b>
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris, Apr. 26:</b> Boccace, <i>The Book of Praise and the Virtue of the Noble and Cleric Ladies.</i> Verard, 1493. First edition of the French version attributed to Laurent de Premierfait. €40,000 – 60,000
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris, Apr. 26:</b> Exceptional set of 15 original bindings by Jean de Gonet, on rare editions illustrated by Picasso, Matisse, Miro or original editions of Bataille or Radiguet.
  • <b>Arader Galleries, March 25, 2017: Spring 2017 Auction</b>
    <b>Arader Galleries, Mar. 25:</b> Ruffed Grous, Plate 41. John James Audubon from <i>Birds of America</i>. Double Elephant Folio. First Edition Engravings with Original Hand Color. $45,000 – 60,000
    <b>Arader Galleries, Mar. 25:</b> Rosate Spoonbill, Plate 321. John James Audubon from <i>Birds of America</i>. Double Elephant Folio. First Edition Engravings with Original Hand Color. $110,000 – 150,000
    <b>Arader Galleries, Mar. 25:</b> American White Pelican, Plate 311. John James Audubon. First Edition Robert Havell Aquatint Engraving with Original Hand Color From <i>Birds of America</i> Double Elephant Folio.<br>$100,000 – 140,000
    <b>Arader Galleries, March 25, 2017: Spring 2017 Auction</b>
    <b>Arader Galleries, Mar. 25:</b> Jaguar, Plate 101. John James Audubon. $12,000 – 16,000
    <b>Arader Galleries, Mar. 25:</b> <i>Birds of Asia</i>. John Gould (1804-1881). London: Taylor and Francis for the Author, 1850-83. $80,000 – 130,000
    <b>Arader Galleries, Mar. 25:</b> <i>The Birds of Europe</i>. John Gould (1804-1881). London: by Richard and John E. Taylor, published by the Author 1832-37. $60,000 – 90,000
    <b>Arader Galleries, March 25, 2017: Spring 2017 Auction</b>
    <b>Arader Galleries, Mar. 25:</b> <i>The Birds of Great Britain</i>. John Gould (1804-1881). London: Taylor and Francis for the author, [1862]-1873.<br>$30,000 - 45,000
    <b>Arader Galleries, Mar. 25:</b> <i>The Natural History of Carolina, Florida and the Bahama Islands</i>. Mark Catesby (1682/83–1749). London: [1729-] 1731-1743 [-1747].<br>$275,000 – 350,000
    <b>Arader Galleries, Mar. 25:</b> <i>Dell’arcano del mare</i> [Books 1-4]. Robert Dudley (1573-1649). Firenze: Francesco Onofri, 1646. $50,000 - 70,000.
    <b>Arader Galleries, March 25, 2017: Spring 2017 Auction</b>
    <b>Arader Galleries, Mar. 25:</b> <i>Cartes Generales de Toutes les Parties du Monde</i>. Nicholas Sanson D’Abbeville (1600-1667). Paris: The Author and Pierre Mariette, 1658 [but 1659]. $20,000 - 30,000
    <b>Arader Galleries, Mar. 25:</b> <i>A Map of the Inhabited Part of Virginia, containing the whole of the Province of Maryland with Part of Pennsylvania, New Jersey and North Carolina.</i> Joshua Fry and Peter Jefferson.<br>$150,000 – 300,000
    <b>Arader Galleries, Mar. 25:</b> <i>Voyage dans l’Interieur de l’Amerique du Nord execute pendant les annees 1832, 1833 et 1834.</i> BODMER, Karl (illustrator) - Prince Maximilian zu Wied-Neuwied. $525,000 – 750,000

Rare Book Monthly

Articles - January - 2017 Issue

Does history predict the future?

34768bef-9079-4e59-8c00-215bb927b3fc

Mark, come to Ulster County and we'll show you otherwise!

 

If you look at a slice of history, at a single area with very strong records, and if you then document in full text and cross index a fair approximation of all related printed and manuscript material including letters relating to that area, do you believe that 350 years of such history (1665 to 2015) would be sufficient to represent essentially the complete human emotional experience? If that can be reflected over 17 generations, then Ulster County will provide the Petri dish. I believe a complete understanding of that history would show patterns of repetitive and therefore predictive behavior.

 

In other words, though humans live complex lives in evolving environments; many instinctively believe that the full range of human behavior has already been experienced and that the patterns of those behaviors will be visible upon in-depth investigation.  And if so, what’s the research challenge?

 

Historical records of human activity exist in many parts of the world, but a particularly rich area for research is Ulster County, and in particular Southern Ulster County, in the State of New York.  The ten communities* of Southern Ulster County that have long been home to careful record keeping, an educated population, committed historians, and a highly visible and relatively narrow historical focus.  This area is alive with local history collecting organizations so an unusually significant proportion of newspapers, ephemera and manuscript material has been safe guarded.

 

Within this material are the stories of tens of thousands of people, embedded in newspaper stories, town and county records, their written correspondence and diaries, their lives and exploits known or suggested.

 

Ulster County is a place where, if 350 years of history is enough and because its history has been long prized, copied, recorded and collected, it will be possible to create a predictive model --- one that perhaps will help future generations around the world avoid mistakes and errors that predictably occur and reoccur in human society.

 

This is possible in Ulster County because there are libraries, historical societies, county, town, village and non-profit organization historians, all of whom have something important to contribute to our understanding of recurring patterns in human behavior.  In some sense all those who have believed history to be important may finally see the payoff for their decades of research and collecting.  We cannot predict specific events but we can capture the history of expended emotions, and see patterns of recurring behavior that, taken together, become predictive and therefore important.

 

Then, how can this be done?

 

There are four categories of information to be gathered.

 

Gathering the conventional data into a high-speed database is a manageable project that will require the participation of many people.  There are probably about a hundred printed sources and two to three hundred volumes that can be readily converted into searchable text, chief among them its newspapers, formal histories and directories.  There are also thousands of other printed documents that together can provide a deeper understanding of life as it evolved.  To these we then need to add private manuscript material.  Personal observations will be crucial for they will tend to be more honest expressions of emotional reactions to life.

 

To these we then need to add county, town and village records to see land purchases, sales and foreclosures.  Were people of all ethnicities treated the same?

 

Jail and prison records will, in a matter of fact way, confirm changing social and political assumptions of socially acceptable behavior in each era.

 

And languages, before Ulster County spoke English it spoke Dutch.  A history of the spoken languages by location, class, and perhaps color, would recast our assumptions about how people lived.

 

And length of life – how long people lived, by color, and gender and era.  We assume that lives over time became longer.  But is this true and if so, was it true for everyone?

 

And cemetery records, what do these records show?  And the placement of graves, segregated or integrated, and by era, how have the underlying burial rules, customs and assumptions changed?

 

And the impact of wealth – how did it affect life and for people who had less, what if any price in length of life did they pay?

 

And causes of death, what will they tell us?

 

To all this and more we then particularly need manuscript material.  What did people say, to whom did they say it, and how did they say it?  Did people write their views contemporaneously or more often later?  Were immediate views later amended once emotions had cooled?

 

What would all this data be worth?  For what purposes would it be collected?

 

It seems obvious that if a deep database is created we will have a unique tool that will be used in a generic way because as I suggested at the outset, our behaviors, irrespective of our locations, recur.  So while what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas, what happened in Ulster County may very well illuminate behavior in other times and places.  

 

This is a complex project that can be handled with conventional databases but it should also be possible to use relational database software to measure not just facts but also the relationships between facts.  That would permit everyone with a specific interest to analyze the data and find unexpected variations and anomalies in comparison to current expectations.  In that way this Ulster County historical database project would be relevant to everyone looking at the full range of human behavior.

 

It is of special interest that during the 20th century the Hudson Valley was home to one of the greatest business achievements in world history, the rise of IBM Corporation that was based in nearby Dutchess County and had some of its facilities in Ulster County.  The company moved down river to Armonk some forty years ago but never completely left for their roots in the Mid-Hudson Valley are deep.  In the past decade they developed what may be a crucial tool to breaking the code of history:  Watson, software that plumbs deep data connections, software that simulates human intuition.

 

Now, if the historical resources of Southern Ulster can be pulled together and IBM agrees to contribute its best thinking about using databases, perhaps it’s databases, we have an opportunity to make some history and much more importantly, make a difference by focusing on the emotional component of human actions over a long period of time.

 

George Santayana wrote, “Those who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it.”  But actually he was only half right.  Comparing public actions misses the point.  It is the history of our emotions that predict behavior and in Ulster County we have the resources, if not yet the demonstrated will, to pull the essential facts together.

 

In Ulster County we have the rare opportunity to change the way people understand the past and its relationship to the present and future.  There is no saying this will be so but I grew up there and I remember being told that if there is also a way.

 

This is it.  This is the way forward.

 

 * New Paltz, Rosendale, Tillson, Gardiner, Shawangunk, Plattekill, Marlborough, Milton, Lloyd, and Esopus

 

Bruce McKinney can be reached by phone at 877.323.7273 and email at bmckinney@rarebookhub.com


Posted On: 2017-01-01 16:19
User Name: blackmud42

The mammoth research effort you describe would undoubtedly lead to a vastly deeper understanding of the past and present of Ulster County, but I cannot believe that it would allow us to predict the future. To do that we would need to have a perfect command of an infinity of variables. No matter how much data we accumulate and analyze, what we know will always be negligible compared to what we do not know.


Rare Book Monthly

  • <b>Seth Kaller:</b> “America the Beautiful”
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> George Washington, Tongue-in-Cheek, Writes James McHenry About His Wife or Mistress—But Funding the Continental Army is the Real Topic
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Young’s Map of the United States
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> President Lincoln & His Most Profitable Client, the Illinois Central Railroad
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Lincoln Thanks Former Pro-Slavery and Newly Republican Congressman for a Fiery Anti-Slavery Speech at a Philadelphia Campaign Rally
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> “A Visit From St. Nicholas” - great association copy inscribed by Clement C. Moore
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Einstein Agrees to Allow “a Short Book on the Hydrogen Bomb” to Use His Statement Made on Eleanor Roosevelt’s TV Show
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> The Building Blocks of Albert Einstein’s Creative Mind
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> A Unique Manuscript Map of Block Island Sound Including Fisher’s and Gardiner’s Islands, the Hamptons, and Montauk Point
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> J.R.R. Tolkien Writes his Proofreader with a Lengthy Discussion of the Lord of the Rings, Including Criticism of Radio Broadcasts of his Work
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Six Benjamin Franklin Signed Receipts – Including his Earliest Obtainable Autograph — Acknowledging a Donation to the Famous Library Company He Founded, and Five Payments for His Pennsylvania Gazette
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Sherman Dishes on Lincoln & Thomas, Meade, Sheridan, Halleck & Grant
  • <b>Now in press: 19th Century Shop’s Catalog 170 Great Books and Photos. Please inquire for a copy.</b>
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> <i>The First American Magna Carta. English Liberties.</i> Boston, 1721.
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> Babbage presentation to Peel, the man who killed the Difference Engine 1832
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> The Stamp Act. 1765
    <b>Now in press: 19th Century Shop’s Catalog 170 Great Books and Photos. Please inquire for a copy.</b>
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> Central Park Photographs by Prevost 1862
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> Salem Witch Trials. Wonders of the Invisible World 1693
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> Mammoth print of Millie-Christine, "The Carolina Twins" c. 1868
  • <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar. 30: Printed & Manuscript African Americana</b>
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar. 30:</b> Malcolm X, typed manuscripts for the <i>LA Herald Dispatch</i> column "God's Angry Men," 1957.<br>$200,000 to $300,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar. 30:</b> Frederick Douglass, Autograph Letter Signed to George Alfred Townsend, Washington, 1880.<br>$40,000 to $60,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar. 30:</b> Carte-de-visite album featuring a previously unrecorded image of Harriet Tubman, 1860s.<br>$20,000 to $30,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar. 30: Printed & Manuscript African Americana</b>
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar. 30:</b> Collection of documents from the Montgomery Improvement Association, Alabama, 1955-63. $20,000 to $30,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar. 30:</b> Martin Luther King, Jr., working draft of the "Letter from Birmingham Jail," Alabama, 1963. $10,000 to $15,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar. 30:</b> <i>Benjamin Bannaker's Almanac</i> for 1795, Baltimore. $30,000 to $40,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar. 30: Printed & Manuscript African Americana</b>
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar. 30:</b> Collection of 41 letters addressed to Rebecca Primus, 1854-72.<br>$20,000 to $30,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar. 30:</b> Abby Fisher, <i>What Mrs. Fisher Knows About Old Southern Cooking</i>, first edition, San Francisco, 1881.<br>$10,000 to $15,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar. 30:</b> Victor H. Green, <i>The Negro Motorist Green-Book for 1941</i>, New York, 1940. $8,000 to $12,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Mar. 30:</b> Toni Morrison, <i>The Bluest Eye, </i>reviewer's copy, New York, 1971. $4,000 to $6,000.
  • <b>Forum Auctions: Modern Literature. March 23, 2017</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Mar. 23: </b> Childers (Erskine). The Riddle of the Sands, first edition, 1903. £200 – 300
    <b>Forum Auctions, Mar. 23: </b> Kipling (Rudyard). Songs for Youth, first edition, signed by the author, [1924]. £150 – 200
    <b>Forum Auctions, Mar. 23: </b> Lawrence (D.H.). The Paintings of D.H. Lawrence, 1929; and 6 others, Lawrence (7). £150 – 200
    <b>Forum Auctions: Modern Literature. March 23, 2017</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Mar. 23: </b> [Plath (Sylvia)] "Victoria Lucas". The Bell Jar, contemporary fiction edition, 1964. £150 – 200
    <b>Forum Auctions, Mar. 23: </b> [Rolfe (Frederick William)] "Baron Corvo". Hadrian the Seventh, A Romance, first edition, first issue, 1904; and 4 others, Corvo (5).<br>£150 – 200
    <b>Forum Auctions, Mar. 23: </b> Rowling (J.K.). The Tales of Beedle the Bard, first edition, signed presentation inscription from the author with holographic sticker, 2008.<br>£500 – 700
    <b>Forum Auctions: Modern Literature. March 23, 2017</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Mar. 23: </b> Vonnegut (Kurt). Cat's Cradle, first English edition, 1963. £200 – 300
    <b>Forum Auctions, Mar. 23: </b> Ardizzone (Edward). Tim and Lucy Go To Sea, signed by Edward Ardizonne, 1975; and 4 others from the series, also signed (5). £300 – 400
    <b>Forum Auctions, Mar. 23: </b> Potter (Beatrix). [The Derwentwater Sketchbook], one of 250 copies, 1984. £150 – 200
    <b>Forum Auctions: Modern Literature. March 23, 2017</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Mar. 23: </b> Rackham (Arthur, illus.), Wagner (Richard). The Rhinegold & The Valkyrie, first trade edition, 1910. £150 – 200
    <b>Forum Auctions, Mar. 23: </b> Ashendene Press. Specimen Pages of Two Type-Faces Cut for the Ashendene Press, 1933. £150 – 200
    <b>Forum Auctions, Mar. 23: </b> Nonesuch Press. Herodotus. The History..., one of 675 copies, small folio, Nonesuch Press, 1935. £150 – 200

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