• <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Jan 26: Alphonse Mucha & Masters of Art Nouveau: The Harry C. Meyerhoff Collection</b>
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Jan 26:</b> Alphonse Mucha, <i>Princezna Hyacinta</i>, 1911. $15,000 to $20,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Jan 26:</b><br><i>Les Maîtres de l'Affiche</i>, 5 volumes, Paris, 1896-1900.<br>$35,000 to $50,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Jan 26:</b> Alphonse Mucha, <i>Job</i>, 1896.<br>$15,000 to $20,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Jan 26: Alphonse Mucha & Masters of Art Nouveau: The Harry C. Meyerhoff Collection</b>
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Jan 26:</b> Alphonse Mucha, <i>Bleuze - Hadancourt Parfumeur</i>, circa 1899.<br>$15,000 to $20,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Jan 26:</b> Alphonse Mucha, <i>Lygie</i>, 1901. $12,000 to $18,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Jan 26:</b> Henri de Toulouse-Lautrec, <i>Babylone d'Allemagne</i>, 1894.<br>$30,000 to $40,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Jan 26: Alphonse Mucha & Masters of Art Nouveau: The Harry C. Meyerhoff Collection</b>
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Jan 26:</b> Alphonse Mucha, <i>Zodiac / La Plume</i>, 1896. $15,000 to $20,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Jan 26:</b> Alphonse Mucha, <i>The Seasons</i>, 4 panels on silk, 1900.<br>$15,000 to $20,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Jan 26:</b> Henri de Toulouse-Lautrec, <i>Aristide Bruant dans son Cabaret</i>, 1893. $20,000 to $30,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Jan 26: Alphonse Mucha & Masters of Art Nouveau: The Harry C. Meyerhoff Collection</b>
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Jan 26:</b> Alphonse Mucha, <i>Monaco / Monte-Carlo</i>, 1897. $12,000 to $18,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Jan 26:</b> Alphonse Mucha, <i>Medee / Sarah Bernhardt</i>, 1898. $12,000 to $18,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Jan 26:</b> Henri de Toulouse-Lautrec, <i>Confetti</i>, 1894. $40,000 to $60,000.
  • <b>Sotheby’s Paris: Livres et Manuscrits. February 8, 2017</b>
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris Feb. 8:</b> Rimbaud, Arthur. <i>Plaisirs du jeune âge.</i> [1865]. Original drawing, made by the young Rimbaud at the age of 10.<br>100,000 – 150,000€
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris Feb. 8:</b> Rimbaud, Arthur. <i>La rivière de cassis.</i> [1872]. Rare autograph poem. Paul Verlaine’s copy. 200,000 – 300,000€
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris Feb. 8:</b> Lichtenstein, Roy. <i>La Nouvelle chute de l’Amérique.</i> Solstice, 1992. 10 original prints, signed and numbered by the artist. 35,000 – 50,000€
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris Feb. 8:</b> Giacometti, Alberto. <i>Pomme endormie.</i> Barbezat, [1961]. One of the first 23 copies, on Japan paper, with 2 suites. The 16 lithographs of the suite are signed. 20,000 – 25,000€
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris: Livres et Manuscrits. February 8, 2017</b>
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris Feb. 8:</b> FABRICIUS AB ACQUAPENDENTE. Set of 4 original folio éditions. 1600-1603. Rare in its contemporary heraldic binding. 20,000 – 30,000€
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris Feb. 8:</b> CASSERIO & SPIGELIUS. <i>Tabulae anatomicae, De humani corporis fabrica, De formatu foetu.</i> 1626-1627. In-folio. First editions. 5,000 – 7,000€
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris Feb. 8:</b> PARACELSE. <i>Bücher und Schrifften.</i> 1589-1591. 6 vol. in-4. The copy of Hermann of Hesse, son of Maurice the Learned. Contemporary binding.<br>20,000 – 30,000€
    <b>Sotheby’s Paris Feb. 8:</b> LAFOSSE. <i>Cours d’hippiatrique.</i> 1772. In-folio. Magnificently colored, in a contemporary binding.<br>13,000 – 18,000€
  • <b>Daniel Crouch Rare Books</b><br>SAXTON, Christopher. <i>The Travellers Guide being the best Mapp of the Kingdom of England and Principality of Wales</i>. London, [1583, but c.1716].
    <b>Daniel Crouch Rare Books</b><br>VISSCHER, Claes Jansz. <i>Novissima et Accuratissima Leonis Belgici</i>. Amsterdam, Claes Jansz Visscher, [1611-1621 or later].
    <b>Daniel Crouch Rare Books</b> PTOLEMAEUS, Claudius. <i>Decima Asie Tabula</i>. Ulm, Lienhart Holle, 16 July 1482.
    <b>Daniel Crouch Rare Books</b><br>WIT, Frederick de, and Gerard VALK. <i>Orbis Terrarum Nova et Accurata Tabula</i>. Amsterdam, Gerard Valk, [c.1690-1700].
    <b>Daniel Crouch Rare Books</b><br>APIANUS, Petrus. <i>Astronomicum Caesareum</i>. Ingolstadt, Peter Apian, 1540.
    <b>Daniel Crouch Rare Books</b><br>CASSINI, Jean-Dominique. <i>Carte de la Lune</i>. Paris, Jean-Dominique Cassini, 1787.
    <b>Daniel Crouch Rare Books</b> PTOLEMAEUS, Claudius. <i>Geographicae enarrationis libri octo</i>. Argentoragi, 1525.
    <b>Daniel Crouch Rare Books</b><br>[SAXTON, Christopher]. <i> [An Atlas of England and Wales]</i>. [London, Christopher Saxton, 1579].
    <b>Daniel Crouch Rare Books</b> Commission des sciences et arts d'Egypte. <i>Description de l’Égypte</i>… Paris, Imprimerie impériale - Imprimerie royale, 1809-1828.
    <b>Daniel Crouch Rare Books</b> CHURCHMAN, John. <i>To George Washington President of the United States of America this Magnetic Atlas or Variation Chart is humbly inscribed by John Churchman</i>. Philadelphia, 1790.
    <b>Daniel Crouch Rare Books</b><br>APIANUS, Petrus. <i>Tipus Orbis Universalis</i>. Vienna, Johannes Camertius, 1520.
    <b>Daniel Crouch Rare Books</b><br>LORIOT, A[uguste], [after] Nicolas LANE. <i>[Pocket globe]</i>. London, 65 New Bond Street, 1809.
    <b>Daniel Crouch Rare Books</b><br>BLAEU, Johannes. <i>Grooten Atlas</i>. Amsterdam, Joan Blaeu, 1662-1665.
    <b>Daniel Crouch Rare Books</b><br>INGEBORG BRUN, Emmy. <i>Mars efter Lowell’s Glober 1894-1914</i>. Denmark, [c1915].
    <b>Daniel Crouch Rare Books</b><br>LUTHER, Martin. <i>Der vierde Teil aller Bücher vnd Schrifften des thewren seligen Mans</i>. Gedruckt zu Jhena, Durch Christian Rödinger, 1556.

Rare Book Monthly

Articles - April - 2014 Issue

How to Get Current Price Estimates from Older Auction Records

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Actual prices and current estimates for the ultra-expensive first edition of Audubon's Birds of America (click to enlarge).

Here is a feature that will help subscribers to the AE Bibliographic Database (or future subscribers) get a better handle on values. The AE Database is a compilation of records, mostly priced auction lots, from the field of books and works on paper. It is now over 5 million records strong, and growing almost every day or two. It is unique.

 

When you do a search of the AED, you will see a button at the top left, just above the results, that reads “Get Current Estimate.” To get a current estimate, either check those records for which you seek one, or check the box at the top that will check them all. Then click the button. Your current estimates will appear. What, then, is a “current estimate?”

 

A “current estimate” is a guideline for what older auction prices represent in value in today's dollars. It is not just an indexing for inflation, adjusting yesterday's prices based on the consumer price index or the price of milk. Instead, it adjusts old prices based on the rate of inflation (or deflation) in the price of books over time. That is where the 5 million database records come in. They have been used to compute median prices for years as far back as 1914. That has enabled us to calculate something of a consumer price index for books, rather than groceries or housing or some other unrelated commodity.

 

Now this is going to be an estimate, as perfection is not possible. It will take an old price and calculate an estimate based on the appreciation of a typical book, but not all books are equal. Just as all elements of the consumer price index have not appreciated at equal amounts, so have books appreciated at different rates. In general, the old adage that “the rich get richer” is true of books too. The most valuable books generally appreciate more than average. Books by authors once in greater favor than they are today may appreciate more slowly, if at all. If more recent auction prices are higher than estimates for older ones, that is a sign of above average appreciation. That book may also be an above average investment going forward. One where recent sales are below estimates from older sales may indicate a book losing favor. You may want to be more cautious in what you pay for a book in this category than one appreciating faster than average.

 

The Get Current Estimate feature also translates prices in other currencies to U.S. dollars so all records can be compared. Conversions are made using exchange rates at the time of sale (not current exchange rates) for accuracy in estimates.

 

Here are two more numbers you will see when you get a current estimate:

 

1. Average Current Estimate. This computes the average current estimate of all the records you have selected. For this to provide a reasonable estimate, you need to make sure you have only selected apples, not oranges. In other words, if you get the estimate for a particular title, but it includes a mix of first and later editions, some signed copies, etc., though each individual estimate will be reasonable, averaging them together will not. You need to select only comparable copies and eliminate the rest to get a solid average estimate.

 

2. Probability of Reappearance. Here is another useful feature, but as with average current estimate above, you need to select only comparable records. This formula looks at how often the book has shown up at auction in the past and computes roughly how often it can be expected to show up in the future. The formula is weighted to more recent results as books which may have shown up frequently a half or even a century ago may have mostly disappeared from the market today. This can be very helpful in determining whether to buy a copy of a book. If it appears at auction every year or two, or maybe multiple times per year, there is little need to chase a copy that is more than fully priced. If it is a book you seriously want, but it appears rarely on the market, perhaps only once every five, ten or more years, you may want to be more aggressive in your pursuit of a copy now being offered. You may have to wait a long time for another chance.

 

Those of you who are already using this feature may have noticed current estimates rose recently. The median price of books rose 7% last year, so older prices have had their current estimates raised by this amount to reflect the recent upward trend in prices. However, they have not yet caught up with prices prior to the recession of 2008. You will still find current estimates lower than actual prices paid during the years 2004-2007, with the largest drop being from prices in 2007, the year before the big recession.

Rare Book Monthly

  • <b>Now in press: 19th Century Shop’s Catalog 170 Great Books and Photos. Please inquire for a copy.</b>
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> <i>The First American Magna Carta. English Liberties.</i> Boston, 1721.
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> Babbage presentation to Peel, the man who killed the Difference Engine 1832
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> The Stamp Act. 1765
    <b>Now in press: 19th Century Shop’s Catalog 170 Great Books and Photos. Please inquire for a copy.</b>
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> Central Park Photographs by Prevost 1862
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> Salem Witch Trials. Wonders of the Invisible World 1693
    <b>19th Century Shop.</b> Mammoth print of Millie-Christine, "The Carolina Twins" c. 1868
  • <b>Forum Auctions: Fine Books, Western Manuscripts & Works on Paper. January 25, 2017</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions Jan. 25:</b> Zenobius. Epitome proverbiorum Tarrhaei et Didymi [graece], Florence, [possibly Bartolomeo de' Libri for] Filippo Giunta, [after 23 September] 1497. £15,000 – 20,000
    <b>Forum Auctions Jan. 25:</b> Phalaris. [Phalaridis tyranni Apollonii Philosophi pythagoraei Epistolae [Graece], Venice, Bartholomaeus Pelusius, Gabriel Bracius de Brisighella, Johannes Bissolus and Benedictus Mangius, 18 June, 1498. £10,000 – 15,000
    <b>Forum Auctions Jan. 25:</b> Orpheus. Argonautica. Hymni [graece], Florence, [Bartolomeo de' Libri for] Filippo Giunta, 19 September, 1500. £20,000 – 30,000
    <b>Forum Auctions: Fine Books, Western Manuscripts & Works on Paper. January 25, 2017</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions Jan. 25:</b> Primaleon.- Los tres libros del muy esforçado cavallero Primaleon et Polendos su hermano…, Venice, Giovanni Antonio Nicolini da Sabbio for Giovanni Battista Pederzano, February, 1534. £20,000 – 30,000
    <b>Forum Auctions Jan. 25:</b> Bodoni (Giambattista). Manuale Tipografico, 2 vol., Parma, Giambattista Bodoni, 1818. £8,000 – 12,000
    <b>Forum Auctions Jan. 25:</b> Music. Gafurius (Franchinus). Practica musicae, Brescia, Angelus Britannicus, 23 September, 1497. £10,000 – 15,000
    <b>Forum Auctions: Fine Books, Western Manuscripts & Works on Paper. January 25, 2017</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions Jan. 25:</b> Bonaventura (Saint). A group of three Franciscan mystical texts, [14th century]. £15,000 – 20,000
    <b>Forum Auctions Jan. 25:</b> Boccaccio (Giovanni). Trattatello in laude di Dante, decorated manuscript on paper, Florence, first half of 15th century. £30,000 – 40,000
    <b>Forum Auctions Jan. 25:</b> Greek medical manuscript. Iatrosophion, decorated manuscript on paper, Greece (probably Crete), [first half of 16th century]. £8,000 – 12,000
    <b>Forum Auctions: Fine Books, Western Manuscripts & Works on Paper. January 25, 2017</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions Jan. 25:</b> Heraldry. Nayler (George). Album of coats of arms compiled from the papers of Sir George Nayler, 114 coats of arms, most with manuscript captions. [17th, 18th & early 19th centuries]. £1,500 – 2,000
    <b>Forum Auctions Jan. 25:</b> Zoffany (Johan). Autograph Letter signed to Messrs. Raikes & Co., merchants, 1p. with conjugate blank and address panel, 17th July 1801, "In consequence of an order I received from General Claud Martin…”<br>£500 - 700
    <b>Forum Auctions Jan. 25:</b> Bury (Richard de, Bishop of Durham). Philobiblon...sive de amore librorum, Oxford, Joseph Barnes, 1599.<br>£4,000 – 6,000
  • <b>Arader Galleries: Winter 2017 Auction. January 28, 2017</b>
    <b>Arader Galleries Jan. 28:</b> Long-Billed Curlew, Plate 231. John James Audubon. First Edition Robert Havell Aquatint Engraving with Original Hand Color From <i>Birds of America</i>. London, 1827-1838. 37 1/2 x 24 3/4” sheet, 49 1/2 x 37” framed
    <b>Arader Galleries Jan. 28:</b> Summer, or Wood Duck, Plate 206. John James Audubon. First Edition Robert Havell Aquatint Engraving with Original Hand Color From <i>Birds of America</i>. London, 1827-1838. 39 x 25 1/2” inches sheet, 49 1/2 x 37” framed
    <b>Arader Galleries Jan. 28:</b> Fish Hawk or Osprey, Plate 81. John James Audubon. First Edition Robert Havell Aquatint Engraving with Original Hand Color From <i>Birds of America</i>. London, 1827-1838. 38 1/4 x 25 1/4" sheet, 50 x 37” framed
    <b>Arader Galleries: Winter 2017 Auction. January 28, 2017</b>
    <b>Arader Galleries Jan. 28:</b> Great Cinereous Owl, Plate 351. John James Audubon. First Edition Robert Havell Aquatint Engraving with Original Hand Color From <i>Birds of America</i>. London, 1827-1838. 38 x 25” sheet, 50 x 37” framed
    <b>Arader Galleries Jan. 28:</b> A Flying Lizard, Surrounded by Beetles and Other Insects. Herman Henstenburgh, (Hoorn 1667 - 1726). Watercolor and gouache on paper. 7 x 10 1/4" sheet, 13 1/2 x 18 3/4" inches framed
    <b>Arader Galleries Jan. 28:</b> Marco Polo's Sheep (Ovis Poli). Joseph Wolf (1820 - 1899). Pencil and Watercolor, heightened with touches of white. Signed and dated Lower right "J. Wolf 1875". 11 1/4 x 15 1/4" sheet
    <b>Arader Galleries: Winter 2017 Auction. January 28, 2017</b>
    <b>Arader Galleries Jan. 28:</b> Winter Scene in Kamchatka. Attributed to John Webber, R.A. (1751-1793). Oil on Canvas. 25 x 36 1/2" canvas, 30 x 41” framed
    <b>Arader Galleries Jan. 28:</b> Winter River Scene. Cornelius David Krieghoff (1815-1872). Oil on Canvas. 16 x 20” canvas, 25 x 29” framed
    <b>Arader Galleries Jan. 28:</b> Grand Canyon of Arizona from Hermit Rim Road. Thomas Moran (1837-1926). Chromolithograph. New York: Atcheson, Topeka and Sante Fe Railway System, 1913. Printed by American Lithographic Co. 31 3/4 x 41 1/2" sheet
    <b>Arader Galleries: Winter 2017 Auction. January 28, 2017</b>
    <b>Arader Galleries Jan. 28:</b> Occidentalis Americae Partis... Theodore de Bry (1528-1598). Engraved Map. Frankfurt, 1594. 13 1/4 x 17 1/2" sheet, 24 1/2 x 29” framed
    <b>Arader Galleries Jan. 28:</b> Nouveau Monde. Nicolas De Nicolai (1517-1583). Engraved map. Amsterdam, 1602. 12 x 15 1/2"
    <b>Arader Galleries Jan. 28:</b> Typus Universalis Terrae... Petrus Apianus (1495-1552) & Reiner Gemma Frisius (1508-1555). Engraved map. Basel: Reisch, 1583. 8 1/4 x 12” sheet
  • <b>Bonhams: History of Science and Technology. December 7, 2016</b>
    <b>Bonhams Dec. 7:</b> EINSTEIN, ALBERT. <i>Die Grundlage der allgemeinen Relativitätstheorie.</i> Leipzig: Johann Ambrosius Barth, 1916.<br>$80,000 – 120,000
    <b>Bonhams Dec. 7:</b> NEWTON, ISAAC. Autograph Manuscript in English, Signed Integrally ("Isaac Newton"). $50,000 – 70,000
    <b>Bonhams Dec. 7:</b> DARWIN, CHARLES. <i>On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection, or the Preservation of Favoured Races in the Struggle for Life</i>. London: John Murray, 1859. $25,000 – 35,000
    <b>Bonhams: History of Science and Technology. December 7, 2016</b>
    <b>Bonhams Dec. 7:</b> NEWTON, ISAAC. <i>The Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy.</i> London: Benjamin Motte, 1729.<br>$20,000 – 30,000
    <b>Bonhams Dec. 7:</b> HEISENBERG, WERNER. Autograph Manuscript entitled "<i>Entwicklung der Theorie der Elementarteilche,</i>” [1964].<br>$15,000 – 25,000
    <b>Bonhams Dec. 7:</b> BERNOULLI, DANIEL. <i>Hydrodynamica, sive De viribus et motibus fluidorum commentarii.</i> Strasbourg: Johann Heinrich Decker for Johann Reinhold Dulsecker, 1738. $5,000 – 7,000
    <b>Bonhams: Voices of the 20th Century. December 7, 2016</b>
    <b>Bonhams Dec. 7:</b> [TARKOVSKY, ANDREI ARSENIEVICH.] STRUGATSKY, BORIS AND ARKADY. Typed Manuscript for <i>Stalker</i>, being the director's working script, 1977. $150,000 – 200,000
    <b>Bonhams Dec. 7:</b> HEMINGWAY, ERNEST. Typed Manuscript of "Marlin Off the Morro: A Cuban Letter," n.p., [1933]. $30,000 – 50,000
    <b>Bonhams Dec. 7:</b> SALINGER, JEROME DAVID. 4 Autograph Letters, 2 of which Signed ("Jerry") and 6 Typed Letters, 2 of which Initialed ("J"). $30,000 – 50,000
    <b>Bonhams: Voices of the 20th Century. December 7, 2016</b>
    <b>Bonhams Dec. 7:</b> PASTERNAK, BORIS LEONIDOVICH. Typed Manuscript Carbon, "Doktor Zhivago," with some typed corrections, Moscow, 1948. $30,000 – 50,000
    <b>Bonhams Dec. 7:</b> MILNE, ALAN ALEXANDER. Autograph Manuscript Signed 3 times ("A.A. Milne"), entitled "Peace with Honour: An Enquiry into the War Convention," 1934.<br>$30,000 – 50,000
    <b>Bonhams Dec. 7:</b> FROST, ROBERT. Autograph Manuscript Signed ("Robert Frost"), titled "Gold for Christmas," 1952. $15,000 – 20,000
  • <b>Seth Kaller:</b> “America the Beautiful”
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> George Washington, Tongue-in-Cheek, Writes James McHenry About His Wife or Mistress—But Funding the Continental Army is the Real Topic
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Young’s Map of the United States
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> President Lincoln & His Most Profitable Client, the Illinois Central Railroad
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Lincoln Thanks Former Pro-Slavery and Newly Republican Congressman for a Fiery Anti-Slavery Speech at a Philadelphia Campaign Rally
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> “A Visit From St. Nicholas” - great association copy inscribed by Clement C. Moore
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Einstein Agrees to Allow “a Short Book on the Hydrogen Bomb” to Use His Statement Made on Eleanor Roosevelt’s TV Show
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> The Building Blocks of Albert Einstein’s Creative Mind
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> A Unique Manuscript Map of Block Island Sound Including Fisher’s and Gardiner’s Islands, the Hamptons, and Montauk Point
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> J.R.R. Tolkien Writes his Proofreader with a Lengthy Discussion of the Lord of the Rings, Including Criticism of Radio Broadcasts of his Work
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Six Benjamin Franklin Signed Receipts – Including his Earliest Obtainable Autograph — Acknowledging a Donation to the Famous Library Company He Founded, and Five Payments for His Pennsylvania Gazette
    <b>Seth Kaller:</b> Sherman Dishes on Lincoln & Thomas, Meade, Sheridan, Halleck & Grant

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