• <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Feb 15:</b> Icons & Images: Photographs & Photobooks
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Mar 1:</b> Vintage Posters Featuring Highlights from the Gail Chisholm Collection
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Mar 8:</b> Early Printed, Medical, Scientific & Travel Books
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Mar 13:</b> 19th & 20th Century Prints & Drawings
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Mar 22:</b> Autographs
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Mar 29:</b> Printed & Manuscript African Americana
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Apr 12:</b> Printed & Manuscript Americana
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Apr 26:</b> Fine Illustrated Books & Graphics
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries May 3:</b> Graphic Design
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries May 15:</b> 19th & 20th Century Literature
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Jun 7:</b><br>Maps & Atlases, Natural History & Color Plate Books
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries, Jun 21:</b> Revolutionary & Presidential Americana from the Collection of William Wheeler III
  • <b>Sotheby’s, New York: Fine Printed and Manuscript Americana, Including Cartography. January 17, 2018</b>
    <b>Sotheby’s NY, Jan. 17:</b> Hayden, Ferdinand V. <i>The Yellowstone National Park, and the Mountain Ranges of Portions of Idaho, Nevada, Colorado and Utah</i>. Boston, 1876. $250,000 to $350,000
    <b>Sotheby’s NY, Jan. 17:</b> Colton, G. Woolworth. <i>Colton’s New Map of the State of Texas, The Indian Territory and Adjoining Portions of New Mexico, Louisiana, and Arkansas</i>. New York, 1882. $4,000 to $6,000
    <b>Sotheby’s NY, Jan. 17:</b> [Jefferson, Thomas]. <i>The Committee appointed to prepare a Plan for the temporary Government of the Western Territory, have agreed to the following Resolutions.</i> … [Annapolis, 1 March 1784]. $250,000 to $350,000
    <b>Sotheby’s, New York: Fine Printed and Manuscript Americana, Including Cartography. January 17, 2018</b>
    <b>Sotheby’s NY, Jan. 17:</b> Mitchell, Samuel Augustus. <i>A New Map of Texas Oregon and California with the Regions Adjoining. Compiled from the Most Recent Authorities</i>. Philadelphia, 1846. $12,000 to $18,000
    <b>Sotheby’s NY, Jan. 17:</b> Bodmer, Karl [illustrator] — Prince Maximilian Zu Wied-Neuwied. <i>Reise In Das Innere Nord-America In Den Jahren 1832 Bis 1834</i>. 1839-1841. $250,000 to $350,000
    <b>Sotheby’s NY, Jan. 17:</b> Bry, Theodor De, Thomas Hariot, and John White. <i>[Hariot's Virginia]. Wunderbarliche, Doch Warhafftige Erklärung, Von der Gelegenheit und Sitten der Wilden in Virginia</i>... Frankfurt, 1590. $200,000 to $300,000
    <b>Sotheby’s, New York: Fine Printed and Manuscript Americana, Including Cartography. January 17, 2018</b>
    <b>Sotheby’s NY, Jan. 17:</b> Bry, Theodor De, Thomas Hariot, and John White. <i>[Hariot's Virginia]. Wunderbarliche, Doch Warhafftige Erklärung, Von der Gelegenheit und Sitten der Wilden in Virginia</i>... Frankfurt, 1590. $200,000 to $300,000
    <b>Sotheby’s NY, Jan. 17:</b> Catlin, George. Catlin's North American Indian Portfolio. Hunting Scenes and Amusements of the Rocky Mountains and Prairies of America. London, 1844. $70,000 to $100,000
    <b>Sotheby’s NY, Jan. 17:</b> Franklin, Benjamin ["Richard Saunders"]. <i>Poor Richard Improved: Being an Almanack and Ephemeris ... For ... 1756</i>. Philadelphia: B. Franklin And D. Hall, 1755. $10,000 to $15,000
    <b>Sotheby’s, New York: Fine Printed and Manuscript Americana, Including Cartography. January 17, 2018</b>
    <b>Sotheby’s NY, Jan. 17:</b> Paine, Thomas. <i>Common Sense; Addressed to the Inhabitants Of America... A New Edition, with Several Additions in the Body of the Work</i> ... Philadelphia, [1776]. $60,000 to $80,000
    <b>Sotheby’s NY, Jan. 17:</b> The Declaration of Independence. In Congress, July 4, 1776 … Salem, Massachusetts-Bay: Printed By E. Russell, By Order Of Authority, [Ca. 18–20 July 1776]. $1,000,000 to $1,500,000
    <b>Sotheby’s NY, Jan. 17:</b> Hamilton, Alexander, James Madison, and John Jay. The Federalist. A Collection of Essays, Written in Favour of the New Constitution … New York, 1788. $200,000 to $300,000
  • <b>Bonhams, Feb. 11:</b> A Rare 3-rotor German Enigma I Enciphering Machine. $70,000 to $90,000
    <b>Bonhams, Feb. 11:</b> Important collection of correspondence between Werner Heisenberg and Bruno Rossi. $40,000 to $60,000
    <b>Bonhams, Feb. 11:</b> Walt Whitman Autograph manuscript containing his thoughts on death. $20,000 to $30,000
    <b>Bonhams, Feb. 11:</b> David Roberts. <i>Holy Land</i>. Six volumes. 1842-1849. First edition. $15,000 to $25,000
    <b>Bonhams, Feb. 11:</b> Extensive collection of Ray Bradbury's primary works, most signed or inscribed. $15,000 to $20,000
    <b>Bonhams, Feb. 11:</b> Peter Force. Declaration of Independence. $12,000 to $18,000
    <b>Bonhams, Feb. 11:</b> Steinbeck. <i>Grapes of Wrath</i>. A fine copy of the first edition. $10,000 to $15,000
    <b>Bonhams, Feb. 11:</b> Lewis & Clark. <i>Travels to the Source of the Missouri River</i>... First English edition, extra-illustrated. 1814. $10,000 to 15,000
    <b>Bonhams, Feb. 11:</b> Manuscript document signed by Nuno de Guzman relating to Hernan Cortes, 1528. $8,000 to $12,000
    <b>Bonhams, Feb. 11:</b> “Nos los inquisidores..." The first book in English printed West of the Mississippi. [1787]. $5,000 to $8,000.
  • <b>19th Century Shop:</b> Charles Darwin on sexuality and the transmission of hereditary characteristics: Autograph Letter Signed to Lawson Tait. Down, 17 January [1877].
    <b>19th Century Shop:</b> MILTON, JOHN. <i>Paradise Lost. A Poem written in ten books.</i> London: 1667. A very rare example with the contemporary binding untouched and with a 1667 title page.
    <b>19th Century Shop:</b> Hamilton secures the ratification of the Constitution: <i>The Debates and Proceedings of the Convention of the State of New-York, assembled at Poughkeespsie, on the 17th June, 1788.</i>
    <b>19th Century Shop:</b> The social contract “Man is born free, and everywhere he is in chains”: ROUSSEAU, JEAN-JACQUES. <i>Principes du Droit Politique [Du Contract Social]</i>. Amsterdam: Michel Rey, 1762
    <b>19th Century Shop:</b> “The first English textbook on geometrical land-measurement and surveying”: BENESE, RICHARD. <i>This Boke Sheweth the Maner of Measurynge All Maner of Lande…</i>

Rare Book Monthly

Articles - April - 2014 Issue

How to Get Current Price Estimates from Older Auction Records

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Actual prices and current estimates for the ultra-expensive first edition of Audubon's Birds of America (click to enlarge).

Here is a feature that will help subscribers to the AE Bibliographic Database (or future subscribers) get a better handle on values. The AE Database is a compilation of records, mostly priced auction lots, from the field of books and works on paper. It is now over 5 million records strong, and growing almost every day or two. It is unique.

 

When you do a search of the AED, you will see a button at the top left, just above the results, that reads “Get Current Estimate.” To get a current estimate, either check those records for which you seek one, or check the box at the top that will check them all. Then click the button. Your current estimates will appear. What, then, is a “current estimate?”

 

A “current estimate” is a guideline for what older auction prices represent in value in today's dollars. It is not just an indexing for inflation, adjusting yesterday's prices based on the consumer price index or the price of milk. Instead, it adjusts old prices based on the rate of inflation (or deflation) in the price of books over time. That is where the 5 million database records come in. They have been used to compute median prices for years as far back as 1914. That has enabled us to calculate something of a consumer price index for books, rather than groceries or housing or some other unrelated commodity.

 

Now this is going to be an estimate, as perfection is not possible. It will take an old price and calculate an estimate based on the appreciation of a typical book, but not all books are equal. Just as all elements of the consumer price index have not appreciated at equal amounts, so have books appreciated at different rates. In general, the old adage that “the rich get richer” is true of books too. The most valuable books generally appreciate more than average. Books by authors once in greater favor than they are today may appreciate more slowly, if at all. If more recent auction prices are higher than estimates for older ones, that is a sign of above average appreciation. That book may also be an above average investment going forward. One where recent sales are below estimates from older sales may indicate a book losing favor. You may want to be more cautious in what you pay for a book in this category than one appreciating faster than average.

 

The Get Current Estimate feature also translates prices in other currencies to U.S. dollars so all records can be compared. Conversions are made using exchange rates at the time of sale (not current exchange rates) for accuracy in estimates.

 

Here are two more numbers you will see when you get a current estimate:

 

1. Average Current Estimate. This computes the average current estimate of all the records you have selected. For this to provide a reasonable estimate, you need to make sure you have only selected apples, not oranges. In other words, if you get the estimate for a particular title, but it includes a mix of first and later editions, some signed copies, etc., though each individual estimate will be reasonable, averaging them together will not. You need to select only comparable copies and eliminate the rest to get a solid average estimate.

 

2. Probability of Reappearance. Here is another useful feature, but as with average current estimate above, you need to select only comparable records. This formula looks at how often the book has shown up at auction in the past and computes roughly how often it can be expected to show up in the future. The formula is weighted to more recent results as books which may have shown up frequently a half or even a century ago may have mostly disappeared from the market today. This can be very helpful in determining whether to buy a copy of a book. If it appears at auction every year or two, or maybe multiple times per year, there is little need to chase a copy that is more than fully priced. If it is a book you seriously want, but it appears rarely on the market, perhaps only once every five, ten or more years, you may want to be more aggressive in your pursuit of a copy now being offered. You may have to wait a long time for another chance.

 

Those of you who are already using this feature may have noticed current estimates rose recently. The median price of books rose 7% last year, so older prices have had their current estimates raised by this amount to reflect the recent upward trend in prices. However, they have not yet caught up with prices prior to the recession of 2008. You will still find current estimates lower than actual prices paid during the years 2004-2007, with the largest drop being from prices in 2007, the year before the big recession.

Rare Book Monthly

  • <b>Potter & Potter Auctions: Fine Books & Manuscripts. January 27, 2018</b>
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions Jan. 27:</b><br>Lot 39: Presidential Pardon Signed by John F. Kennedy. November 1962. $7,000 to $9,000
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions Jan. 27:</b><br>Lot 537: Marc Chagall. <i>Illustrations for the Bible</i>. Features 28 lithograph plates. First American edition, 1956. $2,000 to $3,000
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions Jan. 27:</b><br>Lot 252: Jack Kerouac. <i>On the Road</i>. 1957. First edition. $5,000 to $7,000
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions: Fine Books & Manuscripts. January 27, 2018</b>
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions Jan. 27:</b><br>Lot 143: Arthur Rimbaud. <i>A Season in Hell</i>. With photogravures by Robert Mapplethorpe. The Limited Editions Club, 1986. $600 to $800
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions Jan. 27:</b><br>Lot 72: Group of 11 Harry Truman Signed Letters. Typed & signed by the former President. 1962-1970. $1,500 to $2,000
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions Jan. 27:</b><br>Lot 157: Arthur Conan Doyle. The Complete Works of Sherlock Holmes by The Limited Editions Club. 8 vols. 1950-52. $300 to $500
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions: Fine Books & Manuscripts. January 27, 2018</b>
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions Jan. 27:</b><br>Lot 173: Jacob Lawrence. <i>The First Book of Moses, Called Genesis</i>. Illustrated with silkscreens by Lawrence. 1989. $2,000 to $3,000
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions Jan. 27:</b><br>Lot 239: William Faulkner. <i>Sartoris</i>. First edition. New York: Harcourt, Brace, & Company, 1929. $2,000 to $3,000
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions Jan. 27:</b><br>Lot 286: Walt Whitman. New Year’s Eve Postcard Signed, “Walt Whitman,” to the poet Gabriel Sarrazin. January, 1891. $4,000 to $6,000
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions: Fine Books & Manuscripts. January 27, 2018</b>
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions Jan. 27:</b><br>Lot 351: Pair of European Fine Bindings. Including Gesanbuch (1831) & Naboznych Vylevov (1911). $200 to $300
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions Jan. 27:</b><br>Lot 423: August Luben. <i> Naturhistorischer Atlas der Saugethiere </i>. Includes complete set of 30 loose plates. Leipzig: 1858. $1,000 to $1,500
    <b>Potter & Potter Auctions Jan. 27:</b><br>Lot 386: <i>Famous Monsters of Filmland No 1</i>. Art by Will Elder, text by Forrest Ackerman. Warren’s first monster magazine. Feb, 1958. $2,000 to $3,000
  • <b>Forum Auctions: Fine Books and Works on Paper. January 25, 2018</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Jan. 25:</b> <i>Verve: Revue Artistique et Littéraire/An Artistic and Literary Quarterly,</i> nos.1-38 in 26 vol [a complete set], numerous colour lithographs by Picasso, Chagall, Matisse & others. £8,000 to £12,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, Jan. 25:</b> Wesley (John, Church of England clergyman and a founder of Methodism, 1703-91). Autograph Letter signed to Rev. John Bredin, 1782. £8,000 to £12,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, Jan. 25:</b> Austen (Jane). Brock (Charles Edward). A group of seventeen ink and watercolour drawings for Dent's edition of Jane Austen's <i>Sense and Sensibility,</i> 1908. £6,000 to £8,000
    <b>Forum Auctions: Fine Books and Works on Paper. January 25, 2018</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Jan. 25:</b> Tibullus (Albius) and Gaius Valerius Catullus. <i>Elegiae, sive Carmina,</i> Venice, Andreas de Paltasichis, 1487. £5,000 to £7,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, Jan. 25:</b> Doves Press. English Bible (The), 5 vol., one of 500 copies, signed and inscribed by Laurence Hodson, Doves Press, 1903. £5,000 to £7,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, Jan. 25:</b> Africa. Smith (Andrew). <i>Illustrations of the Zoology of South Africa,</i> 5 vol., first edition, original cloth, [1838-50]. £4,000 to £6,000
    <b>Forum Auctions: Fine Books and Works on Paper. January 25, 2018</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Jan. 25:</b> Longitude. <i>An Act for providing a Publick Reward for such Person or Persons as shall Discover the Longitude at Sea,</i> first edition of this highly important act, John Baskett, 1714. £3,000 to £5,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, Jan. 25:</b> Shirley (James). <i>Six new playes, viz. The Brothers. Sisters. Doubtfull Heir. Imposture. Cardinall. Court secret,</i> first edition, 1653. £3,000 to £4,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, Jan. 25:</b> Heaney (Seamus). <i>Ugolino,</i> number 77 of 125 copies, Dublin, Dolmen Press, 1979. £3,000 to £4,000
    <b>Forum Auctions: Fine Books and Works on Paper. January 25, 2018</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Jan. 25:</b> Lasinio (Carlo, 1759-1838). <i>[Ritratti Originali de Pittori Esistenti Nella Reale Galleria de Firenze],</i> 99 engravings, circa 1791-96. £1,800 to £2,200
    <b>Forum Auctions, Jan. 25:</b> Japan. Kusakabe Kimbei. Photograph Album, 50 hand-coloured albumen prints, oblong folio, [c.1890-1900]. £1,500 to £2,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, Jan. 25:</b> Polar. Expedition in search of Sir John Franklin. Arctic Expedition in search of Sir John Franklin, printed flyer, 1852. £1,000 to £1,500
  • <b>Case Antiques: Historic Winter Fine Art and Antiques Auction<br>January 27, 2018</b>
    <b>Case Antiques, Jan. 27:</b> <i>The Massachusetts Magazine: or Monthly Museum of Knowledge and Rational Entertainment,</i> 1789. Signed by George Washington. $28,000 to $32,000
    <b>Case Antiques, Jan. 27:</b> George Washington Signed Letter to John Marshall. $12,000 to $14,000
    <b>Case Antiques, Jan. 27:</b> Picasso Signed “Vallauris” 1952 Exhibition Poster. $6,000 to $8,000
    <b>Case Antiques: Historic Winter Fine Art and Antiques Auction<br>January 27, 2018</b>
    <b>Case Antiques, Jan. 27:</b> Military appointment commission document signed by both President Thomas Jefferson and Secretary of War Henry Dearborn, dated January 27, 1803. $2,400 to $2,800
    <b>Case Antiques, Jan. 27:</b> Doris Ulmann and Julia Peterkin. <i>Roll, Jordan, Roll.</i> New York, 1933, deluxe edition, preceding first edition of the same year. No. 74 of 350. $5,000 to $6,000
    <b>Case Antiques, Jan. 27:</b> John Marshall. <i>The Life of George Washington,</i> Philadelphia, 1832. Signed by author. $5,000 to $7,000
    <b>Case Antiques: Historic Winter Fine Art and Antiques Auction<br>January 27, 2018</b>
    <b>Case Antiques, Jan. 27:</b> Samuel L. Margolies (American, 1897-1974). Aquatint and etching, "Builders of Babylon," 1937. $4,000 to $4,500
    <b>Case Antiques, Jan. 27:</b> Two Robert E. Lee (1807-1870) signed documents as President of Washington College. $3,000 to $3,500
    <b>Case Antiques, Jan. 27:</b> William C. Harris. <i>The Fishes of North America That Are Captured on Hook and Line</i>, Vol I., New York, 1898. 40 chromolithograph plates. $2,000 to $2,500
    <b>Case Antiques: Historic Winter Fine Art and Antiques Auction<br>January 27, 2018</b>
    <b>Case Antiques, Jan. 27:</b> $100 "Date Back" bank note 1902 from the Clarksville National Bank, Clarksville, Tennessee, depicting the portrait of John Jay Knox, Jr. $1,400 to $1,800
    <b>Case Antiques, Jan. 27:</b> View of the University of Virginia, Charlottesville and Monticello, Taken from Lewis Mountain, drawn and lithographed by Edward Sachse. $800 to $1,000
    <b>Case Antiques, Jan. 27:</b> Large Civil War photograph mounted on card stock depicting Rossville Gap in Missionary Ridge. $400 to $450

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